HEAVY, WET SNOW ON THE WAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
The long advertised snowstorm will begin tomorrow morning with light snow spreading across Western New York. Explosive development of low pressure occur tomorrow evening along the Delmarva coast. Rapidly rising air over Western New York will result in a period of heavy snow for us beginning tomorrow evening into very early Friday morning. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour and possibly a rumble of thunder may occur at the height of this storm. Thundersnow is rare but most common in winter storms with this amount of vertical motion.
Since the snow will be on the wet side with no real cold air to raise the snow to water ratio, I feel that 10-16" of snow will fall across most of the region by Saturday with 90% of that snow on the ground by noon Friday. Specific storm highlights are below, enjoy and be careful traveling tomorrow evening
especially!
STORM HIGHLIGHTS:
**LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY MORNING
**2-4" ON THE GROUND BY 6 P.M. IN THE EVENING
**SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW NIGHT
**1-2" PER HOUR, WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
**10-16" TOTAL BY THE TIME STORM ENDS
**PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW INTO SATURDAY
The substantial synoptic storm we've been waiting for is FINALLY on our doorstep. I don't know about anybody else, but it sure feels good right now. We've waited patiently, some not so patiently, and we all deserve a nice pasting of snow. But like Scott said, be careful out there later tomorrow. And Scott...you drive home safely from work tomorrow night. It may be a looong drive back to Henrietta.
ReplyDeleteYou kidding? I'll be hanging at the ROC tomorrow night.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about some of those colder 850s coming SE and helping with lake enhancement?
Thanks, Jamie
Sorry Jamie, lake won't be a factor with this storm. Too warm to create any enhancement.
ReplyDeleteNot the BIG ONE by any means, but we will take it.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteSo is the confidence pretty high that this will be a purely snow event, with no mixed precip? I see some super microcast animations are showing the pink coloration across our area as the storm ramps up, suggesting a mix of sleet and rain. I know that NWS doesn't make any mention of a mix for our areas at all, but it still has me a little concerned. We've been surprised by mixed precip taking over snowstorms one too many times, so just wondering if you feel pretty confident as well that this will be mostly snow?
When you look at Accuweather Pro, they say that this will be a very nasty storm with 12-24 inches with winds close to 50mph. This would cause power outages. They also say that Rochester, ny will see the heavist with roads closing. Is it possible that maybe our local weather stations want people to still travel and spend money? What many of you don't hear is Accuweather private clientele flaver of forecasting. They also state that this storm may have serious impacts. I. Just find it strang that any "local" forecast is always less, especially our national weather service. What is going on, man?
ReplyDeleteI can't say I have a valid reason as to why, but I'm just getting the feeling that this storm is going to be worse than the local mets make it out to be and that everyone is being conservative. (And I'm one of the guys that usually says you're all crying wolf.)
ReplyDeleteIt's always less...but look at the record. The reality of how a storm ultimately turns out is usually MUCH closer to our local forecaster's predictions. If you watch accuweather and then watch the reality of these storms, you'll see that accuweather hypes things way out of proportion. They're not as in touch with the complexities as the local mets are. No conspiracy, just their way of getting ratings.
ReplyDeleteI remember our biggest snowstorms came when we were only supposed to get 6-12 inches, but we ended up getting 2 feet. I think they have to be conservative with storms like this.
ReplyDeleteScott - it is wonderful to have a meteorologist in our area who avoids the hype and gives us the plain facts. I can't believe the D & C today and their "snow hurricane" headline. Give me a break. Thank you Scott, for being the best!
ReplyDeleteAnything new, Scott, with the 0Z guidance?
ReplyDeleteHi Scott,
ReplyDeleteIm a big skier and I'm going down to Bristol this weekend. Are they going to get this snow too because they havnt had a whole lot there this year.
Thanks!
972mb low shown at 30 hr on the new gfs run!! does this mean any possible changes?
ReplyDeleteI am more impressed with the GFS than the NAM. Was not the blizzard of 1993 a 977 mb low. This looks to be a little stronger.
ReplyDeleteAir pressure alone does not define what a storm will do. Each on is an individual and to compare strictly on pressure would be a mistake. No changes in the forecast with our new data. Enjoy the storm and please keep in touch with us tomorrow night!
ReplyDeletegfs came in w/ 1.5-1.75 knock, knockin' on our door step. the thing starts a bit further east in the beginning but showing 977 around poughkepsie friday a.m. One big question? Why did scott down his totals from 12-20 to just 8-12?
ReplyDeletePlus the temps look a bit cooler and the storm peak a bit later. I still can't believe the lake wont kick in another couple or few even at just -6 C.
DAVE in Irondequoit
The teacher here: snow day on Friday or no...?
ReplyDeleteMy totals went down two inches as we got closer to the storm. 12-20 down to 10-16" because that is what I feel will fall...
ReplyDelete