SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY
At 11:45am EST I made a few "tweeks" to the snowfall forecast, more on timing than the overall total which still remains the same 10-16 inches.
Written by: Brian Neudorff
The snow storm is here, all the speculation has been done, the forecasts have been made now we see how this storm plays out and make any "tweeks" (if any) we need to do as the storm progresses. Right now the storm seems to be playing out like we expected it to do.
The above image displays our highlights of this storm. Snow will remain steady through out the day. Should be fairly light this morning but we will see intensity of the snow increase as we head into the afternoon and evening. Winds will also increase and could start to see gusts of 30 to 35 mph later today. We will probably see around 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow by 5pm this evening.
The peak of this storm will occur during the overnight hours and probably after midnight. Snow rates could reach 1 to maybe 2 inches per hour at the height of the storm. Winds could gust to 40 maybe 50 mph. With the wet nature of the snow we don't expect much blowing or drifting. The weight of the snow COULD cause scattered power outages in spots especially if you add gusts of winds and weight of snow. I don't think power outages will be widespread
Drier air and possible warmer temperatures aloft will work in here quickly Friday morning. This will help to quickly diminish the snow and maybe even mix in some sleet later in the day Friday. We are still keeping with our totals of 10-16 inches, I think lesser amounts for 5 to 8 inches down around Dansville and into Wyoming county.
Like all storms I have a feeling we will have to make small adjustments. On timing especially if snow intensity increases quicker through the morning and afternoon. If you have photos please send them to weather@rochesterhomepage.net also look for updates from Scott and I on Twitter.
Scott = http://twitter.com/scotthetsko
Brian = http://twitter.com/BrianNeudorff
Bob = http://twitter.com/News_8_wx
Also let us know how much snow you are getting. It's easy to do just post a comment telling is where you are from, what time and how much snow you currently have. This will help us as we go through the duration of this storm.
Like we have said many times, this storm is NOT the "Big One" or "Snow Hurricane" definitely not a "Blizzard" but is the biggest storm we've seen this season. Let's have fun and just be careful while out on the roads over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Like all storms I have a feeling we will have to make small adjustments. On timing especially if snow intensity increases quicker through the morning and afternoon. If you have photos please send them to weather@rochesterhomepage.net also look for updates from Scott and I on Twitter.
Scott = http://twitter.com/scotthetsko
Brian = http://twitter.com/BrianNeudorff
Bob = http://twitter.com/News_8_wx
Also let us know how much snow you are getting. It's easy to do just post a comment telling is where you are from, what time and how much snow you currently have. This will help us as we go through the duration of this storm.
Like we have said many times, this storm is NOT the "Big One" or "Snow Hurricane" definitely not a "Blizzard" but is the biggest storm we've seen this season. Let's have fun and just be careful while out on the roads over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Hear is why any of your local stations downplay any weather situation whether it be cold, snow, rain, or wind. This is the best example of downplaying. If an arctic blast is coming, and the high is 8 degrees, you will always see you guys forecast 19 or so. The reason is because people will go out and spend money because "well 19 is not so bad". I have never seen a forecast temp correct 1 to 2 days out. Now if we were talking about a warm up, then you will post the correct numbers, and maybe add a little. Why, because it "boosts" our local economy. What is really funny is the National Weather Service is the worst one of all. How many times were we in a moderate lake effect snow situation, and way before the event, other lake shore counties have some kind of watch, warning, or advisory? Not us. Yes, we might get an advisory, but we get during the event. Why? Hear is why. When you look at Buffalo and Syracuse from an economic standpoint, they really are not major players. However, Rochester is pretty good. We have Kodak, Xerox, and Bosch. We also have great colleges, hospitals, and pretty good malls. The point is that we have money flowing around here. If any of the local weather men, including the National Weather Service disrupt this, then there will be "H" to pay. Another reason why People DO NO want to hear of a snowstorm or anything thing else that might make them stuck in the house is because they really don't want to be in their house. Many people are not really happy at home, and some don't want to be around their husbands and wife's. So when a local weatherman mentions a possible large snow storm, then depression starts. Now no one is going to call up Accuweather and complain that they don't like the harsh forecast, and they will watch another station. We have 5 weather stations that really make for good competition. Yes, it is a business. How can I get people to comfortably watch my station. Well, since many people watch the news because of the weather, the weatherman really needs to kind of tell people what they want to hear. Now, that is whats going on. Think about this. Lately, have you ever heard a local weatherman during a moderate to major storm tell viewers to stay home? If a local weatherman told a bunch of viewers to stay home, then he or she would be working at Accuweather. Enjoy the storm.
ReplyDeleteWow! Everything's a conspiracy.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure what was in your Wheaties this morning, but I honestly believe Scott, Brian, and Bob do the best they can when forecasting the weather. They are not in the business to create panic. They are in the business to inform as best as they can.
When ever there is a forecast of a major storm, it creates all kinds of hype and speculation. The reason accuweather plays every event up is because they want people to go to their website. As a matter of fact accuweather.com was down for some time yesterday because of high traffic.
The team here at Channel 8 do an outstanding job.
I do not believe they sugar coat the forecast to keep the economy going. That is such nonsense!
They are here to keep us safe and informed. Remember last summer, when Scott and the rest of the crew kept us informed doing the tornado's.
Look at it this way. You can never the change the weather, and predicting the weather is 100% impossible. If the weather was forecasted perfect each and every time, we would all be rich.
Hear hear! And learn to spell and how to use correct punctuation. Wow.
ReplyDeleteYup, I new it. When you break down the totals, 5 to 8" over night doesn't really seem that bad. Looks like I will be going to work Friday morning after all. Bummer.
ReplyDeleteTo the Mr. Conspiracy guy, I appreciate you building our city up as one of the better cities in WNY. You're right about that! But, like I said to you in last night's post, look at the record after all is said and done. If we get a snow-hurricane with two feet of snow and 75 MPH winds that cripple the city and close roads for days, then maybe i'll put some stock in what you're saying. Because what you are essentially saying is that this is going to be worse than anybody is letting on because there is a conspiracy to keep the true story of it sealed in order to get people outside. Well, we'll see if we're paralyzed tomorrow, but i highly doubt we will be. You're forgetting that this is Western NY. We average 100 inches of snow. We can handle a foot quite easily. That's why we don't freak out about it like they would in Atlanta, GA for example. Anyway, I appreciate you're theory, but I think you should spend more energy on connecting that theory to global warming alarmists like Al Gore....Then you might have something. But the fight isn't with us, my friend.
ReplyDeleteI want to comment on the last post. I don't want to turn this into a shouting match in blog form, because I respect other peoples opinions, and I respect Scott and his team. Please note that Scott and his team do not own the network. None of these guys do. They have to follow some guidelines and a certain style or flavor of forecasting. Accuweather does not have to do that. I do want to make something clear about Accuweather. What you see on the general Accuweather.com is not the same as their pro, and the private clientele services. It is kind of like when you watch an R rated type movie on local channels. The movie has to be cut so that is is suitable for all viewers. Our local weather men are kind of like watching a cut R rated movie. Even the general Accuweather.com is also like that to a point. Now when you are part of the pro version, or you are a private clientele, you get a whole different kind of forecast. Believe me, it is very different. For all you know, these weather guys could say that we are going to get 12 inches in public form, but when they are off camera, they may say 24 inches.
ReplyDeleteHere is something to really look at. The next time we get any arctic air, whether it be this year or next, write down the forecast-ed numbers on a 3 day forecast. Look at how the numbers slowly get lower and lower for the high temp. Some meteorologists will be very close to what the originally print and they don't change their numbers much. Hear is something else that most people don't realize. For example, When 12:00 in the morning hits (I DON'T MEAN TOMARROW), and sometimes we are warm before a arctic front comes through, our local weather men will make this high temperature the high for the day. What I would want to know is what is the high when I go out for lunch that day. Who cares what the high is at 12:00AM in the morning. These are nifty little ways of "sugar coating" Look Accuweather could be totally wrong. And that's OK. Nobody is perfect. However, If a meteorologist or a weather station thinks that we are going to get a bad storm then say it. It is better to be safe than sorry.
I was just over looking at AccuWeather.com and they have a good part of our area in what they labeled "Immobilized" by this storm
ReplyDeleteI don't see it, here is the reason we are doing what we are doing and it has nothing with the fact that someone told us "Shhhh don't tell people the truth about the storm" There's no Skull & Bones type weather club in Rochester where all the mets get together a find ways to keep the forecast from the public, but wouldn't that be kind of cool. LOL
The peak of this storm will occur later tonight especially in the early pre-dawn hours of Friday. Easily going to see snow rates of 1-2" of snow per hour. Tomorrow morning commute will be a tough one.
I think the fact that at the height of this storm occurs when most of us will be sleeping or just getting up is a good thing. Crews can stay ahead of the storm for most of the overnight. Sure delays will occur and things will get canceled because of the intense snow we get early Friday morning, but it will also end a lot quicker than it started once the dry air arrives later in the morning and midday on Friday.
At this point the only concern I have and where I am rechecking the forecast is between 2 and 5am when I think the storm will be at it's worst. We will let you know if anything changes.
"At this point the only concern I have and where I am rechecking the forecast is between 2 and 5am when I think the storm will be at it's worst. We will let you know if anything changes."
ReplyDeleteBrian - Can you elaborate a bit more on what you are rechecking? Do you think it will be more intense during this timeframe, bumping up the totals or are you thinking less intense?
And all the kids and teachers want to know...
ReplyDeleteSNOW DAY TOMORROW?? I'm telling all my schoolkids to wear their jammies inside out.
Thanks guys, for all your hard work. I still watch channel 10 (but not when Josh Nicolls is on - what a dweeb), but like your weather work a whole lot better!
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. What do you mean recheck, Brian? Please don't tell me you think during the height of the storm we might get sleet and rain mixing in :(
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if I am going to change for the noon but if I do I am leaning towards going up a couple of inches. Like the 6 to 10 inches Scott mentioned last night. The NAM is not as impressive but the GFS and the MM5 out of Stony Brook looked impressive between 2am and 6am. That will be the time frame that will need to be watched the most.
ReplyDeleteTo the person asking about a "SNOW DAY" I can't tell you. That is left to the individual school districts and their policy on school closings.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry you're probably annoyed by the speculation of a mix happening during the height of the storm, but is it true that the GFS and NAM have actually backed off on the warm advection over our area? It seems like the NAM, at least, has backed off on putting the mixed precip this far west, and even has areas east of Lake Ontario mostly in snow. If that's true, it's a great sign for pure snow, but am I right?
Seriously, why is absolutely NOBODY mentioning the chance of the snow changing over to sleet or even rain? It is becoming very likely that it will happen. Do you realize the the NWS is forecasting a changeover to plain rain for a time in Syracuse? A lot of the in house microcast models are showing the "green" backing west to Rochester. As for the nobody putting it in their forecasts, i'm not just talking about ch.8. I'm talking about the National Weather Service in Buffalo, themselves. And all of the other channels. Oh well, it's all of you guys' busted forecast, not mine.
ReplyDeleteI beleive the totals shold be lowered. The NWS out of BING is saying that they heaviest snow will be East of I-81
ReplyDeleteNo schools will be closed for a whopping 6 inches of snow.. Forget it.
ReplyDeleteHi Brian or Scott,
ReplyDeleteTemperatures are actually DROPPING through the 20's this afternoon, and the snow is actually blowing around easily. What is going on? Is there a colder than normal airmass wrapping in or something? It's actually quite cold out surprsingly, and this wasn't predicted by anybody.
We won't crack 8 inches around Rochester. Too much dry air advection from the NW, which is why snow growth is so poor (tiny, tiny flakes!) and why the sun has been dimly seen all day. It's also why temps have been falling and are colder than forecasted, which may help ratios, but we will def have lower QPFs than forecasted. Seeing dim sun during a snowstorm is NOT a good sign.
ReplyDeleteI do see some mod to heavy snow tonight, but again, heaviest east.....wow a first....
6-9 inches total MAX with an added 1-2 over the weekend (most will see closer to 6 inches with 9 inches on the hills).
Once again, another underperforming snowstorm for poor little Rochester. I think Rochester is now officially cursed when it comes to big snowstorms....something ALWAYS screws it up....
So damn depressing for big snow lovers......
Regards to the temperature dropping as it has been snowing we are evaporative cooling. As the snow falls some of the snow is melting and going from the ice phase to the gas phase of water through sublimation. This takes a lot of energy or this case heat out of the air in order to melt or evaporate the snow.
ReplyDeleteWe've also seen drier air work in here too as dew points have dropped which allowed temperatures to drop more. So the snow actually help to cool the air.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteDoes this have implications on snow totals or even reduce the risk of a mix setting in? It's quite different than what was expected. Snow is somewhat dry and drifting in spots. Whoever said we're going to change to rain....now I REALLY don't see that happening. It's going to take a whole lot to get even a mix to hit here.
Wow, a lot of defeatism going on here on this blog. I wonder if many of you turn a game off at the end of the 1st quarter when your team is losing?
ReplyDeleteWe had 2-4 inches for 5pm, last check the airport was at 1.5" easily could see another .5 or more by 5 and we are still in the game.
No one said the storm would start out gang busters. I know all morning we have been saying slow steady today but really picking up later tonight. Just wait.
Wouldn't you know, just as I'm reading these comments the snow intensity picks up a little outside my window. Flake size looks to be increasing too.
ReplyDeleteI was actually suprised to find it snowing already when I woke up. I heard all week it wouldn't really move in until early afternoon.
Brian - Are you still holding firm with the 10-16 or are you seeing another adjustment for the 5 o'clock?
I bet Scott will have a new blog post up pretty soon but at this point we are still sticking with our guns and forecast for 10-16 by Friday evening. We are also sticking with 6-10 by tomorrow morning 7am .
ReplyDeleteIt is so interesting to read these comments through a day. They seem to come in waves and in moods. I've had people tell me that I need to say rain because the NWS is calling it for Syracuse and that is will rain east of here. Then I hear we are too high on our numbers because all the snow will be east of here.
ReplyDeleteThank you all for weighing in on the discussion. Is it possible some sleet mixes at times. It is possible and something we need to watch later tonight because of all the Atlantic moisture but 850s have been marginal but still remain below freezing.
At this point we made a forecast and now we have to see how it goes. It is still way too early to exclaim we were right or for someone else to call this forecast a bust when it's just getting started.
Keep the comments coming. If you are up early tomorrow during the peak of the storm come on and leave your comments. I know at least one of us will still be up.
Sorry one more random thought, I looked around online and there is no other places locally online where people can go and talk about Rochester weather. I'm really happy all of you come here and share your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteAs I was typing my last couple of comments this came down from the Storm Prediction Center for heavy snow for Central New York, this is close to us but we will have to watch this for later tonight, here is their Mesoscale Discussion:
ReplyDeleteSNOWFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR WILL SPREAD WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA.
RECENT TRENDS IN VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BACK TO NWLY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SELY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE IS PIVOTING TOWARD MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A GENERAL WWD SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE...WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH RECENT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR AT TIMES.
ha, you know a lot of us will be getting about 2 hours of sleep tonight to watch this storm. A lot of very tired weather geeks will be trudging to work tomorrow morning (unless you're a teacher like my wife is, then maybe a snow day)
ReplyDeleteQuestion for the news 8/fox weather team. Whats the snow look like for tomorrow morning going into the afternoon? Do think it will be steady still? When do you see it tapering down?
ReplyDeleteAlso what about wrap around snow with a little lake enhancment for Friday night into Saturday?
This will not be a memorable storm at all. 6-10 inches. Sorry I am being negative, but that is nothing.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are doing a great job with the storm and the blogs. It's nice to have a place where we can all share our thoughts.
ReplyDeleteLet me put a different spin on this storm by asking...do you think this is that season changing storm we need to get every year to get us into the "spring-time" mode? It always seems we need a big storm to change weather patterns that take us from winter to spring.
To the person who said, "This will not be a memorable storm" No one ever said it would be. It's just the biggest storm we've had this season.
ReplyDeleteNo I don't think this is the "season ending" storm. It's still February and the way this winter has been I wouldn't want to put a fork in just yet.
Brian, thanks for your posts. Ithink its awesome that you care enough to jump in and sometimes take the heat. You have handled the situation very professionally. Thanks! Now...I am in Farmington off Rt.332 its been mostly steady very light wet snow all day...some sun did poke through at times...it seems to be thickening up at this point 4:15pm. I would say I have about 1 1/2 outside my window. I am sure with the snow being wet it will make accumulation look a bit less. In any event, thanks again!
ReplyDeleteI hope we get another one before I go back to work..(seasonal landscaper). Of course if I had it my way I would of loved to be in Philly this past Winter...I would like 1-2 good storms a week. I know...dream on. lol
ReplyDeleteWhat is with Accu-Weather anyway? Ugh. We call it Accu-Hype.
ReplyDeleteAccu-Hype is the way to Forecast now, its the PC thing to do bro. Now its Snowicane! lol
ReplyDelete