STILL EXPECTING SNOW TO INCREASE TONIGHT
Thanks to the "bright" snow we've seen so far, snow hasn't really stuck on area roadway thanks to a good amount of insolation which is helping to melt snow on pavement. I expect snow to increase tonight as an inverted trough swings into Western New York late tonight and early Friday morning. I expect about 6-9 hours of moderate to heavy snow at times which will be most of the snow we get from this storm system. The latest snow forecast from this evening into early Friday shows us in the 6-10" range. Add to that the 1-4" that has already fallen, plus the additional couple inches Friday night and Saturday and we'll still get in total about what we've forecast.
As we've been saying all along despite what some "want" us to say, this is not anything super duper for us. I would call this the STORM OF THE WEEK rather than a SNOW HURRICANE. Thanks a bunch Accuweather!!!!
Accuweather hipe
ReplyDeleteScott I know this one's not over but how's the next few weeks look still cold an snowy?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be moving to a new apartment this weekend... does Saturday look like the snow will be fairly slow?
ReplyDeleteSnowfall report...Sodus Point, 1/4 mile south of the Lake Ontario shoreline: about 3 inches. Wind continues to increase in intensity, which started to escalate around noon.
ReplyDeleteSaturday will be much less active than tonight and Friday. There will still be a little bit of light snow at times, but accumulations won't add up to much. Good luck with the move!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reports, keep 'em coming! Those of you east will see the pick up of snow before Monroe county.
Now that the temps are lower than expected, does the lake come into play or is that still sitting this one out?
ReplyDeleteOops, left out Part 2. Do the ratio's also increase?
ReplyDeleteI was curious about the same thing...lower temperatures = lake enhancement?
ReplyDeleteMore low level cold exists, so the lake component will still be pretty minimal at this point. However, we have been chatting about the effect of colder air on snow totals. Obviously colder air will increase snow ratios in the near term. But even just a little bit east of here there's a warmer air mass. Timing is key, but we're likely to see a rise in the temperatures once the worst of the snow kicks in via warm air advection.
ReplyDeleteI'll be posting here for the remainder of the evening and into tomorrow early morning with updates!
Also remember that ripping winds usually don't allow for maximum moisture transport into the snow-growth zone too...
ReplyDeleteI'm disappointed fellow bloggers, I thought we'd be lighting up this blog tonight! Where are you all?!
ReplyDeleteSNOW SNOW SNOW! Come on slam us! I been waiting for the BIG one!
ReplyDeleteYou'll have to keep waiting then... this isn't big! Notable, yes. Big, no. But hey, it's something...
ReplyDeleteSorry to be a party pooper but I'm kind of glad we're not going to get the "big" one. My kids are in Baltimore and they've had more than enough snow for all of us.
ReplyDeletewe'll take what we can get! I just wish it was during the day so we can see it!!
ReplyDeleteYea this is mainly an overnight event. Fortunately it gives the plow guys (and gals) time to work without the hassle of too much traffic. I still think that tomorrow morning will be a hairy commute.
ReplyDeleteGeneva:
ReplyDelete1.5" on the ground by 8am
very fine wet snow
Another inch in the past couple hours, snow just started sticking to the roads. Pretty icy underneath.
Hard to believe we're going to have a foot by morning the way its snowing
Looking at the NWS National Mosaic Radar, it looks like there is a brick wall at the Eastern Wayne county boarder.
ReplyDeleteI know it's eventually coming, but this is getting boring! Come west young man!
snowing at good clip on the east side of Rochester. Very fine snow flakes. Winds helping to blow and drift. About 2 inches so far.
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteConsidering we're all the way down to the low 20s, when that warmer air comes in later, do you think it will be enough to rise us all the way up to the freezing point? I ask because I wonder if since we're starting the warm advection at a lower temp, it will make it tougher to get to even 30 degrees by daybreak. What's your take?
Yes its something! thanks for responding Bob
ReplyDeleteI must say that the weather has never been so exciting. I have much enjoyed the enthusiasm of the fellow bloggers. And, the science behind the event is intriguing, even though most of the time I have no idea what any of you weather minded people are talking about.
ReplyDeleteI say let the snow FALL!!!
I suspect we'll now stay colder tonight and overnight as well. Because of this, snow will blow and drift a bit more and you can forget about wet snow.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that say about snow totals?? More or less?
ReplyDeleteI'm also curious....why is it that when I click on the interactive radar, it is showing that we will be getting a mix overnight, rather than snow? Or am I misreading the map?
ReplyDeleteSodus Point update: winds howling strongly, hard to tell snowfall accumulation because so much is blowing around. It is snowing hard at the time. Probably 4-5" by now.
ReplyDeleteSomeone mentioned that there is like a brick wall on the east side of Wayne County...true...the heaviest precipitation has been stalled over by Red Creek since this afternoon. Weird.
The cold out there would in fact make it harder to warm to the freezing point. Our thoughts are that we'll remain in the colder side of the range tonight through the 20s, meaning in fact that fluffier snow is likely most of the night. This could in essence mean some higher totals for areas, but we're still sticking with the 6-10" through Friday morning.
ReplyDeleteWarm advection may not have much time left. As the low occludes and begins to fill in, the warm air transport is shut down, which could mean that our chances for the slushier, heavy stuff are limited. Time will tell!
As for the interactive radar... as well as a lot of the computer models, they have been over-doing the warmth, as we've been talking about. Therefore, they insert a time for a mix/rain even. At this point, it'd be VERY hard for that to happen. I'm comfortable with saying it'll remain in snow form.
Let it snow, let it snow,...let is snow. Hello my fellow weather bloggers. I have about 6 inches on the ground down here in Livingston County. We live about 7 miles north of Dansville up Rt. 256. I am looking forward to seeing if it picks up throughout the night! Itks coming down good right now. "little snows" as we like it call it. Was hoping for "big snows" (Flakes) but I will take it.
ReplyDeleteI have plowed out the neighbors driveways with a big smile on my face too. I don't even do it for a living! Just having enough snow to do it was enough payment for me :) I hope to see another foot on the ground by morning. I will keep my weather lovers updated on our totals down here in Livingston County. Here's looking for that next storm....As I raise a glass in toast! Be safe if your out on the roads folks :)
It's amazing that there is another site out there that still has a graphic showing us with "Immobilizing Snowfall". The only thing this storm might immobilize is a Vespa.
ReplyDeleteBob, Scott or Brian,
ReplyDeleteTemperatures have not dropped to 20 at KBUF and 22 at KROC. Weather bug networks are not indicating upper teens becoming more widespread. Syracuse, which was supposed to rise into the 30's has now even dropped to 26. This is getting wierd guys. What is going on???
"NOW" dropped to 20. Not = Now.
ReplyDeleteWarm air advection hasn't kicked in and may not at any point overnight. This storm has spun up and deepened so quickly that the warm air advection didn't get a chance to catch up with it and swing west to our area. Once the storm reaches its peak strength early tomorrow morning, the assembly line of warm air shuts off, and no longer has the ability to move over us. Therefore the snow will likely stay in a more powdery form. But our totals still remain in tact, we stand behind them!
ReplyDeleteI agree, I wish this was a "day" event so we could see the 1" an hour! So far about 2" in Fairport, but still snowing.
ReplyDeleteSimple, just stay up late! You have unused sick days don't you?
ReplyDelete(The writer of this post assumes no responsibility for you losing your job for playing hookey because you wanted to watch the only decent snow of the year. He is therefore released of any and all liabilities.)
theres no snow
ReplyDeleteLOL, BOB!
ReplyDeleteNo doubt that folks in Southern Livingston, Ontario, Yates will get the most snow from this storm. Closer to the center early Friday a.m. 12" or more there...my thoughts.
ReplyDeleteI see the low has dropped from 986mb to 980mb in the last two hours. Those isobars are a thing of beauty. Just need it to start heading west now.
ReplyDeleteKind of weird here just SW of the city. I'd gues maybe 3-4" TOTAL (all day to now) of real fine snow. It's coming down a bit harder now but hardly unusual--also it's "breezy" but not horrific.
ReplyDeleteI guess you're saying "You ain't seen nothin' yet". Hope you are wrong as I've seen enough.
LOL, yea you can queue the "B-b-b-baby you just ain't seen nothin' yet!"
ReplyDeleteLow is bombing out. We're hoping that it isn't bombing too fast to shut down the moisture transport here. On the plus side, I like what I see on the water vapor imagery, shows a little more upper level moisture slowly sliding our way. Remember though folks, the best snow will fall well after midnight.
Ok, off to stand in the cold on Monroe Ave for the late shows. I'll be back on later!
At 700' elevation in Perinton we have seen at least 4" so far.
ReplyDeleteKeep letting us know your snowfall amounts. That helps us letting our audience know how much has fallen so far. Thanks
ReplyDeleteScottie-O, you just made my night! I am looking forward to glancing out the sliding glass doors with the spot light tonight to see it increase! Glad we are going to get more down south in Liv. County. I see the darker shades out east on the radar...can't wait till they move WEST! I look forward to the 10 O'clock report on Fox!...and the sick day idea is GREAT!
ReplyDeleteSo the low "bombing out" means more snow? I am a touch confussed...Help me out bloggers?
ReplyDeleteNothing means more snow for us. We're going to get about what we have been expecting. Highest amounts will be Southeast into the Bristol hills where upsloping will increase rates.
ReplyDeleteWind still blowing hard here near the Lake in Sodus Point. Snowing moderately, looks worse with the wind blowing it around. Accumulations still difficult to determine due to blowing and drifting. Storm windows have started to rattle.
ReplyDeleteMaybe another inch or so in Fairport, but as others have said hard to determine due to blowing and drifting. I had to laugh as I finally went to the accuweather website - Immbolizing, really? Don't they know we are made sterner stuff and this doesn't immbolize us!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteSo wish your 12-20 forecast was the one, not 10-16. Oh well....
I so wish we were the ones getting the 24-30 inches back to back like the Catskills are getting. Epic snows there. I truly hope to experience epic snows before I die someday.
No doubt the biggest snows from this storm will be missing Rochester, as expected by about 125 miles or so. Catskills, Mohawk region 16-24" in total. Oh what could have been!!!!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteThe "Oh What Could Have Been" has been plaguing Rochester for years. Almost every single snowstorm I can imagine in the last 10 years has had the heaviest snows elsewhere, but here. When, oh when will we finally hit the jackpot, if ever?
Scott,
ReplyDeleteIs there a hint of a double barrel low developing? Some rumblings on some forums of how the pressure at Nantucket is lower than the pressure on Long Island. Could we have a dual low structure? How would that impact us?
Is the heavier moisture train still aimed for Rochester after midnight?
this thing is about 100 miles NE of any earlier forecast. probably putting the heavy snow about 70 miles east. BUST!
ReplyDeleteDave from Irondequoit
so much for NO hype. 12-20 was pretty hypeful.
one quick thaught and last hope at a truly REAL storm: is it possible that with the storm further east and temps much colder than thaught could we possibly get some help from our old friend L. Ontario?? Please! I'm grasping at straws right?
ReplyDeleteDave from Irondequoit
PS: I've seen more snow than the entire prediction in 4 hours here North of 104- IN THE Past LES event in January. BUST
Scott,
ReplyDeleteIs it beginning to appear as though the low is indeed bombing out too early as of now? Or are things on schedule so far in terms of the timing of it stacking up?
Here's my last update before I go home tonight. Snow will pick up overnight several inches falling by 8 a.m. Winds will gusts highest near the lakeshore overnight. Good night and thanks for all your comments!
ReplyDeletehey metcalf, you still on? See the 0z eta. looks like a bulls eye of .78" from 6hr-12hr. what thinks you? Still on board? Any possible LES enhancing this with the lower temps?
ReplyDeletesnow is slowly picking up her in Irondequoit.
DAVE
Here in Webster/Xerox area, wind is howling, snow drifting so much that it's hard to tell how much has fallen. Had drifts of 9 or 10 inches on the sides of the driveway. I'm guessing 5" so far, snow very fine and grainy. Hey Bob, Brian mentioned possible thundersnow on the morning show today-do you think that could still happen?
ReplyDeleteI was just out moving some of the white garbage and I'd say total is <5" to midnight. Also I don't get the howling winds--it is quite breezy but hardly exceptional here--I am slightly SW of the city.
ReplyDeleteHope this forecast turns into a bomb.
Conditions rapidly deteriorating on the east side of the city. looking at the traffic cams, all of the main expressways are now entirely snow covered, and the main portion of the storm hasn't even arrived yet. I don't see how streets will be clear enough for schools to be open come morning.
ReplyDeleteBoring storm, very boring. snowing lightly on the East side. Maybe 3 inches so far.
ReplyDeleteheavy snow finally falling in Irondequoit. Maybe I eat my words. See a dry slot moving in form Utica, but it seems to fill. RUC is showing no stop till tomorrow about 10 am. I HAVE never seen a low move so quickly from Province Town Cape Cod to Hunter Mountain NY! Amazing. It did it in like 2.5 hrs. Must of been going 100 miles per hour! I was sure this low would stay east. Lets see if it can hold enough moisture together to give WNY a big snow. I already think this low is further west than Alot of forecasters thaught. what it means- I don't know.
ReplyDeleteDAVE in Irondequoit
Hey it's Brian as we prepare for News 8 at Sunrise I think from now until 10a we could get another 3 to 6 inches of snow. It is definitely coming down here in Rochester and with winds gusting to near 30mph it isn't as much the snow but the drifts since we're still in the mid 20s.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't have to drive right now (3a until 6a) I wouldn't. It was a mess on the roads and slick. Especially if you hit a drift in the middle of the road.
Bob will be in joining me and take all of your questions and reports online so please let us know where you are, how much snow you have and what you are seeing. Also if you have a camera take a picture or two send it to weather@rochesterhomepage.net
Thanks everyone.
Probably about 5 inches of snow from this storm, and the wind is reducing visibility here in Brighton. It is going to be fun driving to work at 6:30 this morning.
ReplyDeleteThe real question is: When do the school closings start rolling in? My kids are hoping for a snow day!
My kids also flushed an ice cube down the toilet, same as Kevin Doran mentioned last night that his kids did. They also wore white socks to bed. Any other silly things anyone's kids do to help bring a snow day?
Hey all, now I'm back up and at 'em... Shoot me a quick report of new snow you have @ your doorstep. We can better inform the viewers that way!
ReplyDeleteAs of 4:44AM satellite imagery and radar show a rapid clearing line just east of the area in response to the dry slot. This will mean a quick end to the heaviest snowfall from east to west starting around 6-7am. Most of the snow that we'll see from this storm has fallen, with amounts of only 2-3" more possible throughout the day.
Temps did in fact rise a few degrees overnight, but still not warm enough for the thicker snow to form. Have a safe commute and dress those kiddies warm. I'm thinking the old Wegmans bags in the boots trick!
By the way, I threw a pinch of salt over my shoulder, slept upside down on my bed while wearing a belt to sleep hoping for a snow day. Didn't happen :(
8(Educated guess) inches here in Gananda. Definately nothing special.
ReplyDeleteBob, what was the official snowfall at the airport. My gues is 6-7 inches.
ReplyDelete3.4" officially as of 1am at the airport, but obviously most of the snow has fallen since that point. They come out with updates every few hours, will keep posted!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reports!
It looks like Central, NY was the big winner. Syracuse, Binghampton. 12+
ReplyDeleteAll the schools are closed
ReplyDeleteSNOW DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YAY!!!!
ReplyDeleteHow much fell total? I don't think Rochester cracked 10 inches.
ReplyDeleteOfficial numbers aren't in yet. My guess is pretty close to 10" at the airport, totaling both last night and this morning.
ReplyDeletewow I have been out there three times pushing snow around so the plow guy can move the rest. the snow is half way up my snow fence, only a foot of snow on the porch, lol
ReplyDeleteand where is my snow guy???
he has not come at all??
so are there any snow people out there that are plowing?
let it snow let it snow!
Bob, 12 inches in Gananda. Not 8. We have 2-3 foot drifts. More than I thought.
ReplyDeleteStrange, I lok at radar and it shows clear here in Wayen county yet it is stil snowing hard outside.
ReplyDeleteSo, is this it for major snows in Rochester for the winter of 09-10? CAn we look forward to Spring? Storm was simply ok.......nothing great. It's good to see the snow, however.
ReplyDeleteStill snowing moderatly in Webster. Looks like 8-10 inches from last night. Hard to tell with all the blowing and drifting.
ReplyDeleteAt least 9" fell in Brighton, with some impressive drifts. Several inches fell since I was out at 4 am.
ReplyDeleteNot a huge storm, but enough for schools to close. It should be a fun day for the kids.
My kids JUMPED out of bed when I turned off their alarm and told them school was closed. I should say that every morning and see if they get up that easily. --Jim
10+ inches in Greece
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reports all! We've been getting some great pictures here at the station, if you have some send them our way!
ReplyDeleteweather@wroctv.com
Updated the Weather blog this morning: STORM MAY BE ENDING BUT WINDS KEEP ON DRIFTING
ReplyDelete