MORNING UPDATE ON WED STORM
Written by: Brian Neudorff
It appears things are coming together for Wednesday storm along the east coast and Mid-Atlantic. The above data is from the most recent run (12z) of the NAM. It appears that during the early morning hours of Wednesday that the parent low located near northern Ohio will begin to transfer its energy over to the new storm forming off the Delmarva Peninsula. As Scott mentioned yesterday the timing of when this transfer occurs is very important in the snow forecast for the Southern Tier. Tonight it looks like possibly 2 to 4 inches of snow could fall with the higher amounts around the NY/PA border into Pennsylvania. In Rochester, I expect just an inch maybe 2, but leaning more towards just an inch.
As the new storm strengths and bomb out just east of Atlantic City Wednesday afternoon, we will start to see colder air move in over the lakes along with a moist cyclonic flow that will allow for some enhancement of the snow by Lake Ontario During the day Wednesday 2 to 4 inches of additional snow is possible down into the Southern Tier before the snow snow diminishes late in the day as the storm pulls off to the east.
Counties close to the lake including Rochester we could see 2 to 4 inches during the day and a couple of more inches possible into the evening into Thursday. Based on what I have seen this morning I am sticking with Scott's estimates of 4 to 8 inches north with lesser amounts of 1 to 4 into the Genesee Valley by Thursday morning.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI just looked at the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS. They both take the precip further north, even putting the north country near watertown into at least some of the snows. Do you think we'll have to up our totals across WNY? And do you anticipate the NWS posting an Advisory or Warning?