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Monday, February 8

NEXT STORM COMES CLOSER TO ROCHESTER


Written By: Scott Hetsko
The forecasted amounts above represent the current thinking but confident is medium at this point. The problem in forecasting snow amounts now is that questions remain about how this next system will evole. The parent low will transfer it's energy to the coast beginning late Tuesday night. The exact timing of this will affect how much upward motion is present in the Southern Tier which makes a HUGE difference in snowfall amounts. If the coastal low robs energy sooner than expected, more like 2-4" would fall South.
Up North I'm a little more confident that the storms moist flow over the lake will be present long enough to produce a plowable amount of snow during the day Wednesday. The storm is forecast to bomb out East of Atlantic City Wednesday evening (970mb) and then move into the Atlantic Thursday. It should be close enough to keep the lake enhancement going most of the day into the evening. There is the potential for higher amounts close to the lake but we'll wait until tomorrow to decide on any new amounts lakeside.

20 comments:

  1. Thanks For Letting Me Know About The Weather. You're so funny on TV Scott...lol
    Henry
    Clyde,NY

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  2. Hi Scott,
    The NWS discusses the potential for a very significant LES event off Ontario, but there is one big difference with the computer models that have them torn. The GFS and UKMET are considerably colder at 850mb (-13c) than the NAM (-8), and this would make a big difference in how much instability happens. What is your take on how temps will evolve at 850?

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  3. I'm in the 4-8" camp but my gut feeling is that over a foot of total snow is possible near the lake by noon Thursday. With how deep that low off the coast becomes, I gotta believe it will be able to drive in colder air. Even with -10C temps at 850mb that should be enough to add to the numbers from I-90 North.

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  4. I agree, Scott. And condidering the way things have been this winter with the models underestimating cold, I think we'll see some doozy snow totals by the end of the week.

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  5. Once again we miss the MAIN Synoptic event and are left with BORING lake effect.

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  6. Wow, some of the posts on here remind me of Debbie Downer from SNL! If it falls and hits the ground, it's snow right?

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  7. Okay Scottie, So your thinking maybe 4-8 from say Conesus lake south as well???.....

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  8. Scott, how come the NWS only references the 12z run of the GFS usually? Is that run more legit than the others?

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  9. I want a real synoptic event. Not lake effect or enhancement.

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  10. Hey scott, so that I can track the 850mb temps for each run to see if it leans colder on the NAM, could you tell me what time frame I want to be focused on?

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  11. Hows thursday-sunday look for lake snows?

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  12. The critical time for the next event will be 18Z (1pm) Wednesday through 12Z (7am) Thursday. Personally I don't care whether it's synoptic or lake enhanced...snow is snow man!

    After Thursday it will remain cold but I don't expct much snow Friday through Sunday.

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  13. I second that, Scott. Snow is snow. And several inches (or more) of it will be a much needed addition to our current snow pack! Lake Ontario, don't listen to those cynical people...you do a great job making our winters fun!

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  14. so the white would be.....2-4?

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  15. I'm predicting a big blizzard here in Rochester with 18-24 inch snow amounts with drifts up to 10 feet. When? Early May. Til then, have patience.

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  16. Scott,
    Do 850mb temps on the new 0z NAM look any better for a potent LES episode?

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  17. QPF is further north on the Oz NAM.

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  18. Further north compared to what? Certainly not the 12z run.

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  19. Still like the 4-8" amounts North. OZ NAM seems to be favoring that outcome.

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  20. The new model runs are taking the storm further South. I doubt we will get much of anything out of this as usual.

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