NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SNOWCAST
Written By: Scott Hetsko
The latest indications continue to point toward a light but plowable snowfall for most of our area beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. Low pressure over Southern Ohio this evening will transfer it's energy to a coastal low just East of Baltimore Wednesday morning. This new storm will produce the heaviest snowfall for Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and NYC where 12" or more is likely. For us generally 2-5" with a little more in two areas. Southern Tier will be a little closer to the heavier snow.
Lakeshore towns could get an extra 1-3" Wednesday night and early Thursday. Although the air won't be very cold aloft, there will be a general moist, cyclonic flow in place which usually means some persistent snow showers near the lakeshore. Bottom line is that we'll miss yet another doozy of a storm and D.C. will expand their lead on Rochester! What a Winter for the Mid Atlantic!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteDo you agree with the NWS's decision to leave the Lake Ontario bordering counties out of the Advisory? Or are they neglecting to acknowledge the lake influence again?
I think it is funny that we miss every snowstorm. Wow, a whopping 2-5 inches. What will we do with it all. Meanwhile DC will get another 1-2 feet. They will have had 4 snowstomrs this year to our NONE.
ReplyDeleteYeah, what a crappy winter for Rochester.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhen will be break out of this cold weather. It might as well be warm if we are going to miss every snowstorm. No storms in sight after this miss.
I'm afraid most of the month will remain colder than average here in the Northeast. NAO/AO negative and strongly so for awhile.
ReplyDeleteI think all counties should have advisories but hey that's me.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteYou always have a good sense when the NWS neglects to issue advisories for our area when they should have. Do you think they might eventually issue one for us based on lake enhancement? And also, considering the fact that they didn't issue one for us, does that mean that the NWS thinks there will be virtually no enhancement whatsoever? How can that be given the very moist cyclonic flow? I mean, even though 850 temps might not be very cold, they don't need to be THAT much colder in an enhancement scenerio, right?
They should place advisories just for the synoptic snowfall we'll get. 2-5" usually meets the criteria for an advisory so I'll be sure to beat them up a bit tonight :) I don't think they'll be much from the lake (1-3") and that will occur Wednesday night/Thursday a.m. -8 at 850 with higher humidity should be enough to spit out a little bit extra. Bottom line, the area won't be getting a major snowfall
ReplyDelete2-5. WHOOPDI DOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteDo TV broadcast mets have any power to sway the NWS? I mean, if you disagree with them, are you able to contact them and give your ideas, or do they usually ignore broadcast mets? Also, how does the decision making process happen over there in Buffalo. Is it just one person making the decisions to issue headlines, or is it a group of mets who come to a consensus before they issue things?
Good questions!!! I'd like to know the answers to those as well
ReplyDeleteI'm so sick of "heaviest to our West, North, East, South, Up, Down....everywhere except Rochester....the snowhole of winter 2009-2010. What a miserable place to live if you're s big snowstorm lover.
ReplyDeleteScott, I think you're going to be wrong about your prediction of at least one big snowstorm this winter. With the blocking that won't budge, we will continue to miss storm after storm until March. When March comes, the blocking will leave, and it will be back to Lake Cutters and rain. And then Spring will arrive....HOOOOORAY!...putting a much needed death to this miserable of a winter.
No big snowstorms the rest of the winter and early Spring is my opinion...take it or leave it, but don't keep your hopes up. Move South if you want big snows....never thought I'd say that....
Hope anon is right about no big storms and an early spring. So far so "good"--wish it'd warm up about 40 degrees or so though.
ReplyDeleteHey, we had a few flakes and now the radar has cleared up. So looks like the storm is done, right? Hooray! Sunny skies tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteI get the sense they respect our opinion but it is rare that I'll call them up to rip their forecast. They are great forecasters and they put their heads together and discuss what they feel is the right forecast/advisories to pursue. So what if we are not under an advisory? This is only a small amount of snow over a long period of time so the impact will be minimal.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances of schools being canceled in Livingston County tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteI'm not in the business of predicting school closings, sorry
ReplyDeleteChances of school closings are extremely low. New 00Z Nam came in with the storm even further South now. I think I'll be lucky to get an inch now.
ReplyDeleteI think 2-5 is going too high for this wimpy snow. We may get a dusting to an inch. Radar has cleared up and not much developing South. Good. I am sick of this nickle and dime winter. For those of you who still say DC, Philadelphia, Baltimore will not have more snow than us this winter. Think again.
ReplyDeleteEven a clipper system early next week goes to far South to affect us. It is unbelievable. We are missing everything this winter.
ReplyDeleteWoohoo! Geneva picked up .25"
ReplyDelete