BOY, IT'S BEEN A WHILE!

Written by: Bob Metcalfe

There it is! Our first inclusion into the SPC's severe weather outlook for the year.

Here's what they have to say about our thunderstorm potential on Tuesday:

CNTRL NY...
MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL WARM COINCIDENT WILL A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A WEAK MID-LVL IMPULSE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NY DURING PEAK HEATING AND
MAY BE IMPETUS FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS IF CINH CAN BE BREACHED.  LAPSE
RATES OF NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM AND LOCATION ALONG SRN EDGE OF 60-70
KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS
  WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS.  ATTM...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SVR
  STORMS...MAINLY GIVEN DEGREE OF CAP AND SOME QUESTION ON HOW ROBUST
  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY BE.

While our support for t-storms is limited and the window is small, we can at least hear a few good boomers on Tuesday. All of our factors are fairly weak for "severe" weather, but if everything aligns correctly, some small hail or gusty winds could develop in the strongest storms. This is not anything that would cause widespread damage by any means. In fact, on a typical summer day, this would be considered very low-risk. But hey, it's April!