GUSTY STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING

Written by: Bob Metcalfe

The SPC has our area in a "Slight" risk for severe weather this morning. The storm cluster that is approaching us this morning has some limited potential for gusty winds or even small hail, but it would only be held to within a few storms. The reason for limited strong storm development is that this is a warm-frontal based storm complex, rather than cold-frontal. This means that the forcing mechanism for storms is much weaker and more gradual, limiting any storms from become monsters. We'll keep a close eye and as always please send us your storm reports if you do catch something "good."

Based on the WRF data I've been looking at this morning, I don't see any reason to include rain in the forecast past noon or so today. Most of the energy quickly transfers east, and then the secondary line of rain will remain just north of the area tonight, mainly over Lake Ontario.

Wednesday isn't quite as bad, with very mild air once again (highs near 80) and mainly dry conditions during the day. A few showers could shift in by late Wednesday evening.