THE TROPICS COULD BE ACTIVE THIS SUMMER
Written by: Brian Neudorff
There will be plenty more to come, but on Wednesday Dr. William Gray and his team out at Colorado State released their revised 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Gray and his team are expecting an active season. They are forecasting 15 names storms, 8 of which to become hurricane, and 4 to be major hurricanes. (Category 3 or higher) This is compared to the average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 of which become major hurricanes.
The reason they expect above average activity in the Atlantic, is due to the weakening El Nino. They anticipate it to go either neutral or the early stages of a La Nina which tends to give more active tropical activity. They also note a "very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic" They believe these 2 features will "lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification."
Morning, Brian.
ReplyDeleteThis is just my very unscientific opinion, but it seems like when we have warm summer with active hurricanes making landfall, our winter tends to be pretty nasty (100+ of snow). Again, I got absolutely no science behind this, it just seems that way to me lol.
Dr Gray and his team are pretty bad with their forecasts. About every 5 years they happen to nail one and a big deal is made. Nothing said about the 4 misses.
ReplyDeleteI think that the thing most people don't realize is that these like all other long range forecasts are nothing more than probability based. They take data from years that displayed similar environmental characteristics, factor in how they see things shape up, and then go off of that. A safer way would be a simple 3-way classification: average, above-average, or below-average. Putting numbers out for exact number of Major 'canes etc is nothing more than for media/public enjoyment in my humble opinion. Because lets be honest, this doesn't tell us the if or where they'll make landfall. We could have the most active hurricane season ever but if few or none really affect the US or other pieces of land, people would still call it a dud. It's all relative.
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