WARM FRONT MAKES FOR CHALLENGING FORECASTS

Written by: Brian Neudorff

The above image is from the Dunn Tire Storm Doppler Radar just before 9am. We are watching a cluster of showers and storms moving very quickly to the northeast. Could be around the Rochester area by 10am.



If you were watching Scott last night you may have heard him mention the challenges and difficulties that come with forecasting around a warm front. This scenario is especially tricky because of the slowed almost stalled movement of this front.

This morning when I came in around 3:30am our temperature was 55, by the time we reached 6am we had risen to 61 and then by 8am we were up to 67. Hilton saw a dramatic jump in temperatures this morning. Most of the morning the temperatures had been around 47 until 8am when it was the same as Rochester at 67.

That told me that the warm front had lifted north and we were now in the warm sector behind the front. Here is what makes this a challenge. I had to adjust our high temperature cause with enough sunshine a good southwesterly flow and already at 67 it wouldn't take much for the temperature out at the airport to reach the mid 70s.

Another challenge with the warm front so close is the risk for showers and cluster of storms that may move along the boundary. If the front stays close to the lake or near Rochester then we do have a shot at seeing more showers and possible thunderstorms.

I think Scott said it best in one of his comments last night when answering a posters question about how warm our temperature could get today he said, "LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION" If this front was about 100 miles more to the north we would have another summer like day and not much of a worry about showers or storms but because it's close we will have to watch for more shower and storm development tonight and into Thursday morning.