Some Showers & Cooler Today
Written by John DiPasquale:
Today through Friday will definitely be cooler, but still above average by about 5 to 10 degrees. Mother nature is letting down slowly. How nice of her. LOL! Come the weekend it will be quite chilly & blustery!
The culprits for the clouds & occasional showers today through early Thursday are an upper air disturbance & a weak, disorganized storm at the surface crawling through the Carolinas currently. Highs today will be in the mid 60s & lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
After a few early showers, sky should brighten & turn sunny at times with a spotty shower/storm possibly popping up during the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be well into the 60s to low 70s, so overall Thursday will become a pretty decent day.
Later Thursday night into Friday a strong cold front will bare down on us with a scattering of showers & a few storms. Highs Friday should be well into the 60s before the front crosses the area during the afternoon. Behind the front, winds will howl with damaging wind gusts possible late Friday right into Saturday. The air will cool back into the 50s by days end Friday & will most likely not get any higher than the low & mid 50s with blustery winds this weekend.
It also looks like a couple of reinforcing shots of chilly air will work through over the weekend. One will swing through Saturday with a few showers, & the other will come across the area with some rain possible Sunday afternoon. What a difference a week makes! Last weekend we had highs around 80 with abundant sun, this weekend will be about 25 to 30 degrees colder with lots of clouds & a bit of rain at times.
Have a nice day WNY!
I hate to even bring this up but accu-weather's Henry Margusity says western NY might in for some snow next week. Are you guys seeing that as well or is HM out to lunch?
ReplyDeleteOl' Henry loves to predict early snowfalls. I remember he predicted 6" in late October last year over this area that never came close to materializing.
ReplyDeleteHaha, I saw that too. I think they're riding the models a great deal at this point and an all out snowstorm is pushing it, but only time will tell. And I hate to say it, but remember the models last year and how terribly inconsistent they were, even 24 hours out! It is definitely something to watch though and hopefully it brings everyone out from hibernation,(And NO, this is not Andrew!)and brings the blog back to life for this winter season.
ReplyDeleteWhat do all the experts on the blog think about this winter? Are we going to get several big snowstorms or will they miss us like the last two winters?
ReplyDeleteWhere is Andrew? He was pretty accurate last year. He was not afraid to take on Scott too.
ReplyDeleteModels are ALWAYS inconsistent by their very mathematical nature. All we can see beyond 6-7 days out are trends. Is there a chance we get some wet snow showers next week? Yes. Is it anything at all worth talking about? Nope, not yet anyway.
ReplyDeleteScott
Andrew was not accurate last year! We got like 127 inches of snow and he said we were going to get nothing. Anyway, I think if the pattern sets up like its supposed to with the blocking high over Greenland dominating this winter and an overall negative NAO, all as we need is the storm track to be a little more favorable than last year and shift west, but once again, only time will tell. Even though last year was a bust storm wise, we had the 3rd highest seasonal snow total over the past decade, which is pretty impressive. The cold air is definitely going to be there, its just a matter of where the jet sets up!
ReplyDeleteLast Winter was pretty tough if you asked me! Record snow for December, below average temperatures and snow stayed on the ground most of the season. What else do you want? As for me, I would love to see an old fashioned 1-2 foot Nor'easter with lake enhancement.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott, do you think that the 2011-2012 winter predictions are going to pan out the way they are portraying it? I see that InAccuweath..... Whoops I meant Accuweather is putting our region in the bulls eye when concerning being effected by the worst of winter and NOAA has fairly similar thoughts. I was just wondering your two cents on these bold predictions?
ReplyDeleteI'll have my complete Winter forecast in November during our weather special but I will say that it is looking like that will be the case. Another La Nina and recent solar output has been lower. These will likely work in combo to produce a potentially harsh Winter across much of the country.
ReplyDeleteScott
I know I'm signing up for the season long plow service!
ReplyDeleteHaha, Amen to that, my back still hurts from last winter. But sounds good, I'll be looking forward to your forecast come November!
ReplyDeleteThe winter will be a mild one with higher than normal temps and no big storms.
ReplyDeleteOh no...
ReplyDeleteAndrew, if your going to be pessimistic about this winter at least back it up with some models, trends, forecasts.... I don't think anyone would mind you saying the opposite of Scott and everyone else IF you backed it up. Your entitled to your opinion as is everyone else, but don't just say things to spite people, it ruins the fun for everyone!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like everyone has come out of hibernation. It is good to see. I say bring on a cold and snowy winter.
ReplyDeleteThe reason for a mild winter is that the jet stream will set up southwest and put us on the warmer side of storms. There will be storms passing to our west. All weather smart people know that puts us in rain. The NAO will be more on the positive side during most of the winter. Not sure why many people doubt me or get angry because I was spot on last year. I believe I was accurate when last year I said there would not be more than 4 inches during that one storm and mister Nuedoff was wrong and got upset with me. He is now gone and Andrew is back out of hibernation.Thanks
ReplyDeleteThe last post was Andrew!
ReplyDeleteSure hope you are right Andrew. That last winter was almost my last winter, can't take many more like that.
ReplyDelete