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Monday, October 24

Windy with a Bit of Rain Today


Written by John DiPasquale:

This afternoon will be a bit wet with some showers/storm & a gusty breeze making the 50s feel cooler. The culprit for the showers this afternoon will be a cold front, which will move through this afternoon. In it's wake, it will turn a bit colder with temperatures fall back closer to 50 by days end.

Some clearing will take place tonight with temperatures falling back to within a few degrees of 40, as an area of high pressure briefly builds in tonight into our Tuesday. However, the drying trend will not last too long, because come Tuesday afternoon the clouds will return in advance of the next fast moving storm. This system may deliver a shower or two late Tuesday, & some rain to the area Tuesday night. A few showers will likely linger, with a brisk, raw breeze Wednesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid 50s, so fairly seasonable, but it will be closer to 50 by Wednesday.

Later Wednesday night into Thursday is when things get really interesting...The weak storm system providing us with some rain Tuesday night lingering into Wednesday will peter out, but leave it's front stalled off to the south. A storm is expected to develop along the tail end of this front down near the south end of the Mississippi River late Wednesday and move up along the front & intensify as it does so. At the same time, colder air will ooze in from the north around an area of high pressure trying to build in from Southern Canada just north of the Upper Great Lakes. So the way it looks at this time, is that we will have some cold air to work with & probably at least some moisture working in late Wednesday night through Thursday. The big questions for this storm, though, are where does this storm precisely track, how strong will it be & how much cold air will bleed in from the north??? Right now it appears that some rain will develop Wednesday night & quite possibly mix with, if not change to, some snow &/or sleet, especially over the high terrain. There may even be an accumulation over the high terrain, IF the current data comes to fruition! Either way, it looks very cold & blustery with highs within a few degrees of 40 & wind chills closer to freezing! Ouch! Stay tuned to News 8 for the latest over the next few days, as fresh data becomes available.

After Thursday possible mess, we should clear it out for the most part later Thursday night into Friday with an area of high pressure, but it will remain quite chilly with highs in the mid 40s.

Have a great start to your week everyone!

1 comment:

  1. "ECMWF IS FARTHER
    SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BOTH ARE ALSO INDICATING 1000-500
    THICKNESS BELOW 530DM AND 850MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW -6C. SUCH THAT
    BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG SIGNATURE OF WINTRY WEATHER...WILL
    HAVE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF ONE WERE TO ACCEPT THE EC
    SOLUTION THEN OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW
    DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS ECMWF QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF
    MORE THAN A HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS
    PANS OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS."

    This is from the NWS AFD...John i am an avid snow lover and its always nice to see the first flakes of the season...i wanted to know your advice/imput on the possibility of even a little snow accumulation in the lower elevations around Rochester (lake plains)

    ReplyDelete

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