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Friday, November 25

Nice & Mild Now; Much Colder Next Week



Written by John DiPasquale:


An early October feel rather than late November today & tomorrow. There will be some sun today & tomorrow, but there should be more clouds to begin Saturday before more sun evolves as the day progresses. Highs today will be up around 60, while 55 to 60 should do it on Saturday! If we see more sun than expected Saturday, temperatures could reach the low 60s! Either way, it will be mild & breezy. Enjoy it while it's here. Forecast map to the left displays a strong cold front that will eventually make it through, but the big question is exactly when will it cross the area? At this point, it appears that the front should cross through sometime Sunday morning/afternoon with some rain. Behind the front it will turn more seasonable later Sunday & especially Sunday night into Monday. However, there's data that's suggesting that the cold front will not make it through until late Sunday or even Sunday night! If later solution is what ends up happening then much of Sunday would be dry, windy & very mild again! Stay tuned to News 8 throughout the day today & into the weekend for the latest regarding the timing of the frontal passage Sunday/Sunday night.


Either way, it will be more seasonable by Monday with a spotty snow/rain shower or two and intervals of sun. Temperatures for highs Monday will likely range from 40 to 45.


Many signs are pointing toward another colder shot of air to blow through here later Tuesday/Tuesday night with scattered rain & snow showers with a limited & brief shot of lake snow shortly thereafter. Temperatures may drop out of the 40s & into the 30s Tuesday depending on when the front comes through. Wednesday should be brisk & cold with a little bit of snow in the air possibly off the lake. Right now it looks like December may start off pretty cold with at least a bit of snow potentially in the air, as a deepening trough tries to develop here in the East late next week. Still a ways out, but data has been pretty consistent in suggesting this as a distinct possibility. Let's see if this trend continues over the weekend??


Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend everyone!


20 comments:

  1. Are the models showing a snow event for next weekend?

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  2. Yeah, especially the Euro 12z, but its still a ways out so don't get too excited just yet!

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  3. What do the models say? Can anyone fill us in on what the models are thinking even though it is a week out. Where are all the weather smarties on the blog?

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  4. The models are all in agreement that a storm will be coming through the Tennessee/Ohio valley mid week. The problem is that some have it going West of us while others have it East. Plus, the temperature profiles are varying greatly and there is no way to predict what is going to happen at this point. However, the past couple runs have it more East than West, but again, still a ways out.

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  5. It looks like more of a rain event.

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  6. Not surprised it will again be like that all winter. A rainy winter with no synoptic snow storms. I have already made my prediction early. A weak winter with all you winter lovers crying again. Sorry and when it comes true all of you will say i did not predict or where is your evidence. Same old same old. I was the one who was more accurate last year not the great Hetsko.

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  7. Wow, Andrew, what an ego.
    It's frustrating that the blog posts the day after, i.e., when it says 'today' it is really yesterday. I suppose it is not supposed to be a weather report - otherwise we wouldn't need to watch the news broadcast.

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  8. Andrew, it sounds like you probably know a lot about the weather, but if you could be more humble about it and not put other people down at the same time maybe people would not be so harsh against you. Everyone does the best that they can in predicting weather in Western, NY. It is not easy. I think it is brave to even try to give a winter prediction given the difficulty even in predicting day to day weather. Just try to be more humble about it. Whatever happens happens and we cannot control it.

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  9. I'd hardly call last year a bust...in December alone we had over 46 inches I believe. We also had a snow pack for just about the entire winter. Lake snow is still snow...I think this year we may have a slightly better chance for synoptic storms, but it's a crap shoot to make a call at this time and anyone who knows what they are talking about knows that. It's much easier to say that storms will miss us, because the odds are that most will (think about all the other possible tracks). Any prediction is conjecture at this point...also, Scottie is the best I've come across in the business, definitely the best in Rochester. He was the only one to change his forecast for that 'big storm' last year, and his snowfall totals for specific events are almost always spot on, while the other channels seem to throw a couple inches on top for hype purposes. Andrew, you were on point last year (I think you had that storm pegged early on)...but if it's possible stop being a jerk about it.

    To Anonymous:
    The blog usually picks up once the lake snows start flying more frequently. If I remember correctly, last year it was at times ahead of the forecast and certainly more in-depth. Also it's a great source of information and sometimes debate.

    And now back to waiting for winter...

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  10. I appreciate those who are defending me but I don't really care what this Andrew guy says about me or my forecasts. This blog is really only for a discussion of our forecasts. I don't really care much about opinions. Who is Andrew and what are his credentials? Mine are well known, anyone can come on a blog and make predictions. So you can chose to ask a moron questions or ask our weather team. We'll put our discussions on here and that will be that.

    Scott Hetsko

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  11. Well what is happenening with the weather next week Scott? I am saying all quiet the next few weeks with a pattern switch and cold air finally coming in around Decmber 5th. Sincerely a Moron

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  12. Andrew, lay off! This is supposed to be a blog to discuss weather in a respectful fashion. No one is here to pick fights and act immature except you. So seriously, if you don't want to talk about weather in a reasonable manner, find another blog to ruin, because it really spoils it for everyone else when people act this way, especially towards the meteorologists that keep this blog running!

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  13. Get a girlfriend Andrew! Loser

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  14. All I remember Andrew predicting last year was individual storms missing us. With the -NAO as negative as it was.. that didn't exactly take a Nostradamus.

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  15. The negativity is way out of line on the blog. I am just stating opinions. All you weather lovers get a little bit sensitive as does the forecasters. I will stay positive but do not get mad because of my weather knowledge and accuracy. Look we will be getting excited about our possible first storm happening in a week plus. Just keep your eye on it the question is going to be the track the cold air will be in place. Just my opinion. Sorry if I offended anyone.

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  16. Thanks Andrew. No-one is denying you have weather knowledge, just keep it humble my friend. Your right, no-one should get mad because another person was right. I look forward to your positive input on this blog. Thanks

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  17. No Andrew, you are condescending and offensive. I am sure everyone would welcome your opinion and comments if you could keep to that and leave out the sarcastic comments like "the great Hetsko". Your attitude is disappointing as it seems like you have an aptitude at forecasting.

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  18. Hear you loud and clear Mike! Will do!

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  19. Great Andrew. Looking forward to your take on the forecast. Hope it is cold and white!

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  20. I don't care who Andrew is I just hope he's right about a rainy winter and all the storms going west. Anything is better than shoveling.
    Just for fun what is your prediction for total snowfall at the airport site? Scott expects 100+, do you see significantly less?? Put it on the line. It'll be interesting in April.

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