Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Thursday, December 8

LOCALLY HEFTY LAKE SNOW WEST

Written By: Scott Hetsko

To get my snow fix, I just may hop into my car and hit the thruway West toward Pembroke on Friday. Initially the heaviest snow will fall in Northern Erie, Southern Niagara counties on Friday. As the wind shifts to a more Westerly direction, the edge of that single band may briefly reach Western Monroe county tomorrow afternoon.

As you can see and as usual, the highest snowfall will be concentrated within 30 miles of Lake Erie. I doubt that Rochester will get more than an inch or maybe 2 West. After this, no snow in sight for a long time!

40 comments:

  1. Scott,
    It's funny you say that. I'm actually going to drive out to Buffalo Saturday morning to enjoy the snow. Maybe I'll bring the sled and go to Delaware Park in Buffalo. With fresh snow cover, I doubt much melting will take place on Saturday, especially to our west.

    ReplyDelete
  2. In fact, Scott you should suggest sending one of your mets out to Buffalo to report live tomorrow? I'm thinking the Tonawandas or the north side of Buffalo would be the best bet. Of course, like any company, I'm sure that would have to get approved by management first...

    ReplyDelete
  3. I clicked on the National Weather Service page and found this forecast for Buffalo:

    Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 34. West wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

    Friday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 36. West wind between 7 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That's right. Heavy snow and THUNDER. Why can't our lake do that?????

    ReplyDelete
  5. Our lake IS going to do that....east of it in Oswego, Jefferson and Lewis Counties.

    Most weather outlets says 40+ from Sunday through next Thursday. That brings us to the middle of the month.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wow, Scott is this image of the WRF overdone? If it isn't, Buffalo is going to get crippled by this snow event. Look at that little strip of red right at the tip of lake Erie....directly across Buffalo! That's a lot of snow

    http://www.wxcaster2.com/N-EAST_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gif

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes Lake Ontario does produce thundersnow just NOT in our area. You need an intense SINGLE band snow which occurs in Jefferson and Oswego counties. As for that image from SnowFan, that would be impressive but I would bet up to 12" in Buffalo metro.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  8. Sorry, but who cares what Buffalo is going to get.

    ReplyDelete
  9. This is a weather blog, weatherdan. If you only come on here to get the forecast, then just go to the main website and look at it. But, a weather blog is for people who are genuinely interested in weather overall. Our weather will be relatively inactive, so what's wrong with talking about an interesting weather phenomenon about to take place just down the thruway? Are you interested in weather enough to be on a weather blog, or not?

    ReplyDelete
  10. I second SnowFans comments. We DISCUSS weather on a weather blog. What is it that you want to talk about specifically to Rochester, weatherdan? nobody is stopping you. Got nothin? Okay, then let us talk about weather as people who are interested in weather. Snowfan is right. If you don't care about anything beyond Rochester during a time when not much is going on, but it IS active just down the road, then just look at the darn 7-day forecast and move on. You clearly don't belong on a blog designed to discuss weather overall.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Middle of next week looks interesting, especially since that storm looks like its going to have a more west to east track rather than southwest to northeast!? Its actually a little strange to see a track like that!
    And Scott, whats with the negativity!? I guess everyone is getting a little frustrated with this winter so far

    ReplyDelete
  12. Whoa everyone, let's stay cool. Everyone is entitled to their opinion on this blog. I consider Buffalo in the general area so we'll talk about them when there is nothing much going on here. Next week will become interesting if and only if that storm transfers its energy to the coast. We'll see!

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  13. Well, since this is a ROCHESTER weather blog and I live in Rochester, I am only concerned with what affects me, not Buffalo. But I think this is turning into an insult blog. We are all free to give our opinions without the insults.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Scott,
    Assuming that this less than favorable pattern for cold/snow continues for a couple more weeks, do you see a major turn around in January? I don't see any lasting cold until we get that AO/NOA to go negative for awhile. It's been remarkably positive this year. Then the NWS is talking about things like the QBO and MJO contributing to our mild pattern. I hope all of this changes by January, though I know it may be too late for December at this point looking at the indices...

    ReplyDelete
  15. In other words....when will our backyard rink freeze?!? Thanks for all the interesting info everybody.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Snowfan, they're predicting the NAO to move neutral to slightly negative in the next 2 weeks....

    ReplyDelete
  17. SnowFan: All these oscillations work together. I do see the NAO is forecast to become negative by late December. Usually there is a few day lag time between that and our weather turning. Let me take you back to December 2006. 4.7" of snow for the season through 12/31.

    We had about 30" in January 2007, 43" in February including that Valentine's Day storm that dumped 21" on the city!

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  18. Scott,
    Have you ever met the NWS M.I.C Tom Niziol? I found this recent video of him in the Buffalo News talking about recent, major lake effect snow storms since 2000:

    http://video.buffalonews.com/player/?id=3788

    ReplyDelete
  19. Seems I remember winter hardly ever got started before the New Year when I was a kid. Might just be selective memory.. but this year doesn't seem that unusual to me. ( As far as lack of snow )

    Extremely positive AO regimes are generally longer lasting. Average might be somewhere around 35 days. We are in day 19 of +AO.. so counting forward I'm placing my money on a Christmas Eve miracle storm.

    Things that contributed to this forecast:
    1.) A very quick scan of past +AO periods
    2.) Gut feeling
    3.) It's the one day a majority of people seem to not mind snow.

    ReplyDelete
  20. After this, no snow in sight for a long time!

    So far so good!!!! I hope a long time means late Feb with a quick warmup in March to melt it.

    ReplyDelete
  21. When I asked my 67 year old parents about winters 30-40 years ago, they recall those seasons being more consistently cold and snowier than the last 20 years. My father said it did not snow as often, it seemed, but it stayed around a lot longer and rarely melted.

    ReplyDelete
  22. It's true that Winter's seem to be more frequent "small" snows that go away. The last 20 years we have had more 100" seasons than the previous 100 years! Think about that, it's amazing. Either January or February will have 40" I think.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  23. Michele in PenfieldDecember 8, 2011 at 10:12 PM

    I love this blog and I agree with others, keep it positive. I wish we could be looking forward to a nice lake effect or synoptic snow system, but unfortunately its not in Mother Nature's plan right now! Look at it this way, we don't have to worry about driving in bad conditions during the work week and worry about individuals getting hurt or killed during the bad weather. I do feel bad for the folks that make a living plowing and folks that make $$ with ski resorts and tubing places. Hopefully things turn around as mid to late decemeber approaches!

    ReplyDelete
  24. It's snowing in Greece!! Yay!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Been snowing in Lyons for about an hour. More white than green on the ground at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  26. i thought we were not supposed to see any snow until possibly later in the afternoon...the grass is covered here in victor which is a nice surprise. I'm not complaining, just confused as to where this came from all of a sudden, thought scott said no snow till later and maybe a dusting for us. this is great!

    ReplyDelete
  27. The boundary had a little more umph than I expected. The rest of the day will behave as expected. It was nice to see a fresh dusting of snow here in Henrietta.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  28. Scott, Chance of a squall this afternoon/evening?

    ReplyDelete
  29. THE HALF INCH WE RECEIVED IN VICTOR IS GONE. IT WAS PRETTY OUTSIDE WHILE IT LASTED.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Euro weeklies say we will be mowing our lawns first week of January. Ok..maybe not that extreme but they're not favorable for winter fans right through the first week of January.

    MJO comes out of the circle of death into phase 4..also not good for Eastern US cold.

    Doesn't necessarily mean we torch for weeks on end. It's just guidance.

    Anyone out there understand mountain torque and Brewer-Dobson circulation? I've done some reading but my eyes glaze over and I fall out of my chair. I need some layman terms. Just a basic overview of what they are and what they do?

    ReplyDelete
  31. I think there is something brewing for next weekend and early the following week!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Yeah, a storm cutting to our West.

    ReplyDelete
  33. We have to be positive. I am not so sure that the possible storm on the 19th or so date will cut to our west. We may be in the sweet spot this time. Hang in there and think positive we might get a nice storm right before Christmas.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Remember usually storms that initially look to head to far west usually move further east then expected and those that look to be too far east usually move more westward so maybe we will get the storm to take more of a favorable track to get some snow over us. Its still quite far away from us right now

    ReplyDelete
  35. So far so good......
    AND NWS predicting above ave temps through the 24th now. Great news!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Yes, there is a bit of potential on the horizon yet again (late next week)...but the air looks to be pretty warm. I wouldn't get too excited. I'm just hoping for a white Christmas at this point - and guessing we probably have a 50/50 shot. Winter is coming...slowly.

    ReplyDelete
  37. New's 8 Weather team,
    How accurate are the long range models at predicting that temperatures will be above or below normal? I've seen some people commenting here that it's due to be warmer than normal for the next 2 or 3 weeks. Are the models even remotely accurate 2+ weeks out for temperature generalities or trends?

    Thanks
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  38. It really does not look good for snow lovers for December. I still think we will be lucky to see
    12 inches for the month. There really is no snow in sight.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Wow weatherdan you must be right News8 has not made a post in days. That sure shows you how dead it is for winter weather. Not looking good.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Nothing we can do about the weather! Just have to watch and wait for that pattern changer, which, trust me, will happen. It's a matter of when and for how long.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive