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Thursday, December 1

Nice Start to December!



Written by John DiPasquale:


High pressure protecting us & providing WNY with a good deal of sun, which should mix with some clouds this afternoon based on the latest satellite trends as of late this morning. Highs today thanks to the extra sun will be in the mid 40s! Yes, another day with above average high temperatures.


The blue line with the triangles connected to it on the left is a cold front. This front will be swinging through tomorrow as it weakens, but it should have enough gusto to produce some snow showers that may mix with a bit of rain tomorrow morning through the first part of the afternoon. In the wake of the front, there should be some sun developing before the sun sets tomorrow & temperatures will likely back off into the low to mid 30s by day's end. Little, if any, accumulation is expected on our Friday with the mainly snow showers developing & drifting through during the mid morning through the first part of the afternoon.


Strong high pressure will build in & likely provide the coldest start to a day this season Saturday with lows early Saturday ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s under a mainly clear sky. On Saturday, though, appreciable sun & a brisk southerly flow will develop & aid in warming us well into the 40s during the afternoon. Winds will whip around really good Sunday, but the winds will be warming winds, & we should have some sun, especially during the morning, as highs get up into the low to mid 50s! A slowly approaching cold front may trigger a shower or two late Sunday, but for the most part it will be dry through the weekend, which is great news if you have decorating plans, or getting/cutting a Christmas Tree.


Next week still looks much colder, as temperatures begin to cool Monday back into the 40s with some showers possible, followed by much colder air oozing in behind a cold front Tuesday which should flip any rain to snow on Tuesday with a little lake snow possible Wednesday. The timing, evolution & track of the possible storm early to mid next week will dictate how much & what we actually see next week. The storm may not affect us until later Tuesday into Wednesday, but we will definitely have a close eye on the Monday night through Wednesday night time frame. Either way, it does look like we will turn much colder for much of next week. We'll keep you posted.


50 comments:

  1. COLD WITHOUT SNOW IS USELESS. IT MIGHT AS WELL BE WARM.

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  2. IF YOU GO WITH THE GFS RIGHT NOW IT WILL BE A MISS FOR ROCHESTER.

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  3. I cannot handle another weekend of good weather. My back will not hold up to one more round of "better take advantage of this weather while you can" yardwork.

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  4. I would say do not make any conclusive predictions yet. Still far off and models are way apart on solutions more than they were last year. I still have a feeling that we are in the ballpark just my opinion.

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  5. Either way it is going to warm right back by the end of next week. It does not look good for snow lovers.

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  6. The models change every single day and after last winter, we should have all learned our lesson! Don't be so sold on the models when they're a week out; I agree with Andrew in that we still have good chance in seeing at least some synoptic snow.

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  7. Hey Scott and team,

    Those of us with backyard rinks are starting to get nervous. No below freezing temps in sight! Any prediction as to when we might get a stretch of freezing temperatures so we can start watering? Thanks!

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  8. It does not look good for Decemeber snow lovers. We may get some next week, but it will warm back up. The talk hs been that it will not be until late December or early January before any significant change. We could have a les than stellar snowfall this December. We will see.

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  9. Does anybody have web sites where I can look at these "models" in lay mans terms? I'd like to see what others are talking about. Any help would be appreciated.
    Thanks.

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  10. Stay positive. Remember mother nature can turn from one extreme to another on a dime.

    Remember our miserable spring this year where it did nothing but rain till the end of May and it seemed the summer might be lost? Then it changed to total dry and sun for most of the summer.

    It seems to have a way of evening out.

    Andy

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  11. Sal, this is a great site, just takes some playing around to get used to it!

    http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

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  12. Sal, you could also use the PSU e- wall.

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

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  13. Remember that models are only as good as the forecaster looking at that information. It's like me looking at my own chest x-ray and speculating what those little white areas mean. I'm not trying to sound condescending but there's a lot of school and experience behind our forecasts. We just don't sit around and check out models.

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  14. Thanks for the sites guys and I understand 100 percent what News 8 weather is saying. I just want to see what others are seeing when they speculate about a particular model.

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  15. Yes you need to have a great deal more knowledge than just models but they are fun and helpful to try to figure out. This storm next week is still to early to figure out. Some will get good snow and some will get good rain. Have to wait until probably Sunday/Monday to get it figured out. News 8 will be on it this weekend.

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  16. Looks like the best chance for a few inches of wet snow would be Tuesday evening and early Wednesday. It will be elevation and location dependent with lower elevations Southeast getting mostly rain. Rochester could get a 2-4" kind of wet snow at that time.

    Scott

    PS: Kudos to Andrew for his new tone on the blog, thanks and keep it up!

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  17. I think we need to watch out because many times the winters that are not that bad have some bad storm systems that we remember for a long time. It has been a while since an all out blizzard up here in Rochester and I would not be surprised to see one this year.

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  18. Charles! a blast from the past! Good to hear from ya!

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  19. For this rain storm Tuesday-Wednesday. It looks as though by the time the cold air oozes in the moisture is well east. We will have to wait for the next one.

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  20. The 12z GFS looked a little out of sorts. It has a strong LP close to central NY. I do not think it is accurate just seemed to come out of nowhere. But have to keep an eye on it. It would be nice for all the snowlovers to get a big surprise fop once. Thanks for the PS Scott trying to get this fun and friendly.

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  21. I truly do not think we will get more then 2-3 inches of snow and that is only if we get a decent 2-3 hours of lake snows

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  22. Andrew - I assume the LP gives us a possibility of snow..would it be LES or Synoptic? Don't care if is either, to me snow is snow. Thanks!

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  23. If what Andrew said does indeed happen we would get synoptic snow (possibly significant if we can get into a deformation band) and then lake snows which would be significant in Wayne county. I dont see this happening though.

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  24. What do you think of this Scott???

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F03%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=120&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

    The 0C line is very close to us here is there the potential that we could get involved in this ice storm here???

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  25. Yes Charles is accurate but I am just saying what I saw on the 12z GFS and that was a surprise and not what it has been previously showing. Thus, I am hoping for snow but in no way am I saying the 12z was accurate. I have to look at the next few GFS runs which occur at 4:30 and 10:30.Just putting out information I do not compare by no means to the many other experts on this blog. They have a much greater knowledge base and expertise. But thanks for letting me contribute. I do wonder what our news 8 team thinks?

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  26. After looking at this more it sure looks like if that were to be accurate we would get a major mess here with rain/zr/sleet/snow

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  27. Not sure what you guys are seeing? There will be nothing big here this week.

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  28. Yes, agreed (to Charles). Charles, good to see you back and Andrew this blog feels much better now so thanks!
    In response to Sal I wanted to also mention wunderground.com and also SimuAwips. Both can be great tools. If you really love weather though, you should also start digging into why/how/under what conditions these storms form, as well as historical data. I love learning about past events and current trends, and without those and a good amount of experience/knowledge (especially of climate and our own little microclimate here in the ROC), looking at model maps is kind of like going to a fortune teller (no offense if you believe in that stuff). Also...go outside! You can look at maps/radar all day but there is no substitute for actually experiencing how weather behaves.
    I'm very excited about the possibilities this coming week might bring (even if it's a mix), but there is good reason why you see news 8 being conservative about predictions at this stage in the game. There is also no substitute for their years of experience and let us not forget Scott Hetsko's big brain - he looks at the big picture, which often most of us on this blog are not able to see. I expect we should be hearing more from news 8 in the next few days but for now - we have something to watch, which is what is fun for me...that impending sense that something could happen....or not. Snow or no, I don't see how people can't find this stuff interesting.

    I have a couple questions for Scott that are not forecast related: How, if at all, has this blog changed the way you look at/approach your job? What are the pros and cons for you as a meteorologist in keeping up with the blog?

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  29. I moved south in january and moved back up here recently so now I will be on here more often.... one thing I learned after last year though is to be more conservative with my forecasts which is exactly what I will be from now on...

    I am really curious what the next model run shows in terms of the storm track

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  30. I guess I do not see what Charles and Andrew are seeing. I looked at the GFS 12UTC and what you guys are talkng about. A996mb low going right through Eastern, Ny. The 06UTC and 00UTC for the GFS do not show anything close to that. Maybe I am not reading these models right. Andrew states that the next GFS model comes out at 4:30pm. Is that the 18utc? Thanks

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  31. Yes the storm system moves between Syracuse and Albany which puts us on the cold side the only problem is that if you look at the 0C line its right over Lake Ontario putting us on the above freezing portion of the cold side but we will be at 34-35 degrees or cold enough to have ice or snow mix. But I still do not see this happening I feel that the storm will be to our west and that this model run was not an accurate run.

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  32. The new model shows it way East. I do not think we will get much of anything.

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  33. So does anyone think it will be cold enough later next week so the ski mountains can start making snow? I would love a storm but will compromise with cold.

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  34. These models are still all over the place and seem to spacing out with each run. I think that by tomorrow evening, we will have some more similar runs between the GFS and the Euro. However, the models are in good agreement that the cold air may be sticking around for at least the end of the week!

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  35. My father does some work at Bristol and he said theyre really hurting right now, so they are aiming to start making snow next week, especially at night so they can at least start building a base.

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  36. Stacey here - I'm thinking no biggie on Tuesday into Wednesday, maybe just some wet flakes. Not enough moisture around by the time the colder air filters in. I don't have much faith in the late(r) week storm just yet. Definitely something to watch, but it's just too far out right now to nail anything down. I would bet on a little lake effect though, late next week. Brrr! Let's give it a few more days, and we'll see about any storm potential. Who's ready for some snow?!

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  37. I think this December is going to be well below average in Snow. It is strange that we have had no snow yet and it is December 4th. We are already close to a foot below average. I know it is early but thins just seem strange. The temps are so above normal and no real cold air in sight.

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  38. To Jo-Sef: This blog hasn't changed how I approach my job but it has further galvanized my view that you have to be careful about your forecasting. So many people like to predict the weather, it's fun I get that but it's very complicated. I hope everyone who visits this blog has gotten an appreciation for that.

    Pro's and Con's: Big pro is that we can get up to the minute information from YOU on current weather. That's really important during severe or winter storms. No real cons about the blog, I read it all the time but sometimes let you all hash out the conversation. Have a great Sunday!

    Scott

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  39. Weatherdan, your being awfully negative about this winter already for it only being the 5th of December! Take a look at the winter of 2006-2007, we received only 0.5" of snow in November and 4.3" of snow in December, and we still ended the year with 107.2"!

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  40. The latest GFS does look interesting for the next Thursday/Friday time. It at least worth watching. I agree with Weatherguy do not give up on the winter this early.

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  41. Yeah, we are definitely going to have to watch that. I have a feeling the models will be all over the place with this one too until at least Tuesday. Interested to see what the News 8 team is thinking on this one!

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  42. Andrew- right now looks like heaviest for next weekend is east but, does it have potential to go more toward us based on jet pattern?

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  43. My question is, are there signs of the NAO and AO going neutral or negative yet? Looks like the cold side of the jet stream is inching closer and closer to the east coast next week. Is this a sign?

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  44. AO was a December record at > +5 and second highest reading ever ( ever being since 1950)... Hopefully we can get a SSW near the end of December to make January a little more interesting.

    To Scott and the News 8 Weather team. Trying to predict weather is a hobby for some. It is fun to try to figure out what is occurring and then comparing what you think to what the pros are saying. All it takes is getting burned a few times "model hugging" to realize how much actual science and "art" actually goes into a forecast.

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  45. So...the La Nina pattern and AO are battling it out..? Is that why the jet stream is in the position it is in, slowly drifting to the east as La Nina exerts its influence?

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  46. Looks like another boring week of weather with no snow. A storm that will miss us at the end of the week and slide off the coast. By the time Sunday comes it will be back in the 40's. By that time it will be almost mid-december with no snow.

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  47. weatherdan said...

    Looks like another boring week of weather with no snow. A storm that will miss us at the end of the week and slide off the coast. By the time Sunday comes it will be back in the 40's. By that time it will be almost mid-december with no snow.

    Good!!! Boring is great, especially in December. It's actually been pleasant doing shopping so far. Instead of the usual slopping through a foot of garbage and freezing my butt off.
    Keep the boring coming.

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  48. Scott - thanks for the responses.
    Caledonia - Yes, this. I've been trying to predict the weather since I was a kid looking up at the sky; I've gotten a lot better since then. It's useful because I do a lot of trips in the mountains especially throughout the winter, and weather there can change on a dime - you have to be able to read the signs. I have some awesome video of that extreme cold we got hit with last year(remember Scott forecasting -30s - -40 up in Saranac Lake?), I was on the summit of a mountain and could literally see the frozen air creeping in as the sun went down - very eerie, especially knowing I would be sleeping in it.
    That being said, you won't see me come on the blog and say "this will happen", or "this won't happen", because there are people here much better qualified to do so (I'm sure that's what brought most of us here in the first place). Speculating and asking questions is cool, but I prefer it when actual forecasting comes from News 8 - I just skip over the others, they tend to say exactly what the models say, and those change constantly.
    As far as winter is concerned, December looks sad, but lets keep our fingers crossed...it will come.

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  49. I love reading this blog. I still hold true to the forecasting from Scott and his team. They are almost spot on the majority of the time.

    Now to make it fun, for me I do not go by models.

    I go by the pain in my joints. If I ache, rain or snow is on it's way ;)

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