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Monday, January 30

Another Round of Snow Tonight


Written by John DiPasquale:

After a nice shot of winter Sunday night & early this morning, we will pick up another 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" region wide snowfall due to a strong warm front tonight. Snow should break out sometime between 6 & 9 this evening & will likely be moderate to heavy for a little while later this evening & during the early overnight before it tapers to flurries & drizzle & maybe even a bit of freezing drizzle late tonight & very early Tuesday. Temperatures will warm above freezing for most by sunrise Tuesday, as we will be off & running for the low to mid 40s later Tuesday afternoon for highs! We will remain mild into Wednesday, 40s, before falling back into the upper 30s to around 40 Wednesday afternoon in the wake of a morning/midday cold front.

It looks more seasonable, but quiet through Saturday, but Sunday/Monday may get interesting with a storm moving into the Northeast. The big question with the Sunday system will be the track. Of course, this will dictate what, & how much precipitation we see. Either way, though, big overall upper level pattern changes on the way later next week & through much of the rest of February the way it looks now! Snow lovers could be getting what you have been waiting for, let's just put it that way:-) Stay tuned. Big blocking ridge in the North Atlantic developing...

Have a great night & be careful if you have to travel tonight, roads will become snow covered & slick right into the start of Tuesday.








41 comments:

  1. Any updates from our blog experts?

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  2. Hope the pattern doesn't change. So far even when it snows it's had the decency to melt within 48 hours. Hopefully that will continue.
    So far so good.

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  3. I think 2-5 may constitute a Winter Weather Advisory. The NWS is talking about the storm this weekend and it does not look too good for us. We will see. For ananymous above, you would rather see mud and brown grass than the beautiful picture we had this morning with the snow on the trees. I guess I do not get it. You ahve a right to your opinion.

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  4. here is what i hope anonymous...i hope u dont post anymore. i hope the pattern changes of you idiots coming on here to be negative toward us winter lovers. go crawl in a whole and hibernate please

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  5. Scott, I'm curious as to what you use to forecast? Do you go strictly by the GFS, the Euro, or a blend? Your temperatures seem a bit too warm towards the end of the week and seem completely GFS generated. I am in no way criticizing you or your forecast, I'm just curious!

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  6. Anonymous aka bitter EK'er aka "so far so good" is a message board troll. They have no purpose other than to come to a weather enthusiasts blog and be happy about bland boring weather just to inflame others. He/she revels in the disappointment of others-- a sign of a world class loser. This persons life obviously sucks.

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  7. I actually rarely look at MOS/GFS output for my temperature forecast. I look at 850mb temps and later this week I'm not sold yet on 850's being as cold as GFS/NAM is predicting.

    Scott

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  8. Also later this week we should get a fair amount of sunshine Thursday and Friday which prompted me to add a few degrees to the high temps.

    Scott

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  9. Fair enough, thanks Scott! And do you feel confident that February will act more as a typical winter month than what we have had?

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  10. John and other mets sure seem to think so. I have been disappointed one too many times this winter to get too excited about the prospects.

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  11. I do not think we will get2-5 tonigh. Not even close based on radar. I have had a dusting so far.

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  12. We have another inch or so on top of the 4 we already had from last night. This is the most snow we have had on the ground at one time all winter. My kids were finally able to play in the snow! Too bad it can't stick around for a bit longer!

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  13. Good news Scott said on his forecast that mid to late next week he feels some real cold will come in for at least a little while. Hinted could be pretty cold not sure I was reading him right with that. Also said could snowy too. I trust him looking at all the factors so maybe things will switch by Feb. 10th.

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  14. Models show nothing for us this weekend again. All we keep hearing is the pattern is going to change then it never happens.

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  15. Yeah, they took the "storm" right out of the picture and we warm again on Monday. 30's to near 40 anyway.

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  16. Not sure why no one is talking or excited about all of our local mets saying next week will bring about a pattern change to cold and snowy weather. It sounded like possibly real cold and stroms coming. We weather lovers should maybe be excited.

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  17. Going to drain the old gas out of my snowmobile and put it away for the year. I might even drive up North and spend money at all the places I normally would during a normal winter. I'd imagine some of them will be going out of business without any traffic this year.

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  18. It is hard to get excited anonymous when we have been told week after week and month after month od an impending pattern change and it does not happen. I will believe it when it actually happens.

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  19. However, all of them seem to be on the change for the middle of next week. Scott is pretty good and he was pretty strong in his belief that things will change by next Wednesday. I believe it will!

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  20. Weatherdan all I can tell you is that the PV is going to be dropping a great deal. In fact it may drop down to the Gulf of Mexico! This means get ready for the polar air from Cananda. It is going to get cold cold late next week. At least we know we will have cold air in place for any potential storm.

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  21. Good morning everyone,

    A coating to an inch or two of snow fell across the area last night, & wasn't more due to less forcing than originally thought. So that's it for January with regards to snow. Today will be well into the 40s with some sun to finish out January. Appropriate that we finish this month on such a mild note considering this month, & the whole winter for that matter, has been so feeble & balmy. We officially ended the month with just about 20" for the month here in Rochester leaving us about 8" below average. Now what about February? February will start very mild with no snow, big surprise, right!? Temperatures will be well into the 40s Wednesday morning with a few rain showers before it turns a bit colder during the afternoon in the wake of a cold front passage tomorrow.

    Right now Thursday through Sunday looks mainly quiet & more seasonable with some sun & maybe a passing snow shower or flurry from time to time, but that's about it. Come later Sunday night into Monday a storm will try to deliver some precipitation to the region. The big question will be the ultimate storm track. This will determine how much, & the type of precipitation we see. Stay tuned.

    Have a nice day everyone!

    News 8
    Meteorologist (AMS Seal)
    John DiPasquale

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  22. That system for Monday does not look impressive at all. It looks to split into 2 weak systems as it heads northeast and get even weaker before heading well South of us and off the coast. It does look to get colder next week though, but no BIG storms.

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  23. I would imagine over the next few model runs the 2 lows will combine as one stronger low. The exact track will play a huge role in what type and how much precip we get.

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  24. Looks like on the GFS the EXTREME cold in Alaska gets pushed out by a Western ridge.. but it pushes the cold into Asia. I'd imagine that is going to leave us with marginal temps with any storm no matter what the general pattern is.

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  25. I agree the cold will also be weak. It is time to pack it in and move on to the spring and face the fact that we are not getting one big storm in the Rochester metro. A horrible winter for winter enthusiasts.

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  26. Well I'm sure it is going to snow again at some point. But people like me that need it to stick around so we can go play in it might be out of luck. If an extended period of winter isn't set in by February 10th or so.. I don't want it anymore. Spring snow is highly annoying and useless to me.

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  27. Scott could you elaborate on your thinking last night during your forecast. You seemed really sure that by midweek next week the cold air will be here and hinted at strong cold and storms. Was I interpreting that correctly?

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  28. Oh come on caledonia, wouldn't you take a March 1993 blizzard if you could?

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  29. I give the mets from channel 8 credit.....They must come on here and just shake their heads...People's pessimism and criticism is entertaining to say the least!

    Still hoping for winter...

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  30. A once in a century storm isn't what I was talking about as a nuisance snow. Lol. If I could ride my snowmobile in it for a week without my house collapsing.. yeah I'd take it.

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  31. I agree Calendonia, I'm ready to ride my snowmobile and snow sled with my kids... by March when the sun shines, it sure melts the snow rather quickly and gets messy. I am one snow lover that keeps hanging on to the hope but I'm losing hope rather quickly now that Feb is approching and STILL temps aproaching 40 for the weekend. Looks like the potential storm is no longer according to some of you?? So disappointing!

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  32. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 31, 2012 at 6:00 PM

    Just walked the dog on Jan. 31st without a hat or gloves or boots.........hoping for some snow in Feb., but also hoping that this mild winter doesn't lead to a terrible spring and summer. While I do like snow, I don't like not having a good spring or summer.

    I was wondering if this information below from the NWS is what the Channel 8 Mets were talking about in terms of a pattern change in Feb.?

    NORMALLY A NEGATIVE AO AND POSITIVE PNA WOULD BRING COLD TO OUR
    REGION...HOWEVER THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ HAS BEEN STUCK
    IN PHASE 5 AND 6 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT THROUGH MOST OF THE
    WINTER...WHICH CORRELATES STRONGLY TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
    ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. LATEST GEFS RUNS
    CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EMERGENCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE MJO
    CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
    FEBRUARY...AND ALSO FORECAST THE MJO CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EAST
    THROUGH REGION 7 AND TOWARDS REGION 8 DURING THE SECOND WEEK IN
    FEBRUARY.

    A SIGNIFICANT SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT JUST FINISHED UP
    LAST WEEK...AND THE EFFECTS THAT HAS ON THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR
    VORTEX GRADUALLY TRICKLE DOWN TO THE TROPOSPHERE AND CAN FAVOR
    DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND NEGATIVE AO/NAO ABOUT 3
    WEEKS LATER.

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  33. Phase 8 of the MJO usually means cold in the East..along with phases 1, 2, and this time of the year, phase 3. So I'd imagine it's one of the things they are looking at.

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  34. Scott are you out there I posted a question to you earlier about what siad in your forecast last night. Any response?

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  35. Yeah I was a little bullish on that Arctic air building over Hudson Bay next week and dropping South. Long range still hinting on a Polar Vortex developing later next week which could result in a period of very cold and snowy weather for mid February. Time will tell!

    Scott Hetsko

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  36. Now it is Mid-February that it will get cold and snowy. It keeps getting pushed out every week. It will be June by the time the pattern changes. LOL

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  37. No matter how the rest of this pathetic winter turns out, which, I think will be warm and snowless, this winter will go down in history as being one of the warmest and least snowiest. Even if we receive average snowfall for Feb and March, which we will not, we will be well under 70 inches. My guess is we will top out between 40-50 inches. It is February 1st and I have my windows in my house open and I took the dog for a walk in shorts and a short sleeve shirt. Are you kidding me?

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  38. I believe we finally have to admit that weatherdan is right. There is nothing coming and this winter is shot. He is right 40 inches will be lucky to fall. It is the old wait until next year.

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  39. Yup, the cold forecast keeps getting pushed farther and farther out. First it was Jan., they were sure the pattern would change now it was this weekend, now it's late next week. Whatever, I can't take this anymore. I need to stop holding on to hope and stop looking at the forecast and just be surprised if and when we do get any snow. Highly disappointed at this winter, nothing we can do about it, it is what it is and it stinks!

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  40. This winter is not good. But the glass is half full because at least we haven't gotten our 100" of snow in the form of rain. Could you imagine how rotten that would be? We've been lucky in that regard and we've had a fair amount of sunny days. Just trying to be positive.

    Andy

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  41. Us snow lovers have to pack it in. Long range models are now suggesting above average temps with hardly any snow for at least until the third week of Feb.

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