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Friday, January 27

Windy, Showers Change to a bit of Snow Today



Written by John DiPasquale:


After a mild, damp start to this Friday, it is now turning colder & the winds are whipping in the wake of the mainly rain producing storm moving into New England currently. A batch of light to moderate snow will come through this afternoon & early tonight before ending. There will probably be a slushy coating to an inch or so of accumulation by day's end, especially over the high terrain. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s this afternoon for all.


Tonight the weather will quiet down, before the first of two cold front's makes it's way through with some snow showers that may begin as a mix during the midday hours Saturday. A slushy coating to an inch or two is possible tomorrow afternoon through early Saturday night. No biggie, but it could get a little slick late Saturday & early Saturday night. A more significant snowfall will attempt to develop off Lake Erie near or in the Greater Rochester area late Sunday morning into Sunday night ahead & with a strong punch of colder air. A 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" snowfall could very well occur across much of WNY, including the Greater Rochestr area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Best chance for maybe even a bit more than that would be north & east, & south & west of Rochester during this period. Temperatures will go from around 40 midday Saturday back into the low & mid 30s Sunday & 20s Monday. Any lake snows lingering mainly north & east of Rochester Monday morning should end come the afternoon as weak temporary ridge quickly builds in from the west. Stay tuned tonight & through the weekend for Stacey Pensgen's updates regarding the snow & colder temperatures.


Have a great weekend everyone!


48 comments:

  1. Models are teasing a little winter goodness for the 2nd week of February. Hopefully the MJO forecast isn't full of it... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

    Only thing that doesn't seem to want to cooperate is a -NAO.. how important is that to this area? Isn't a -NAO more important further South? Like the Mid Atlantic area?

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  2. Caledonia, I was wondering the same thing cause we have had some harsh winters where the NAO has been positive!

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  3. GFS took that storm right out of the picture for next Friday Saturday.

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  4. Weatherdan, the models are going change with each run! It's still a week out...

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  5. What did the GFS that came out at 10:30 do with the potential storm?

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  6. I believe this will be another classic great lakes cutter! The high pressure from Cananda will be directing the path of this storm. It will be a strong storm late next week in my opinion! But I am not an expert weather person just a blogger who likes to give his opinion on what he sees.

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  7. The last 3 runs of the GFS shows no storm at all. The first week of February looks mild and snowless. Since November I keep next week will be the patter change or next month. Then that week and the next month comes and still the same old pattern. We could end up with less than 29 inches of snow this year. Wow!!!

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  8. Not so sure about that weatherdan! Just wait and be patient. I think there is potential for a major winter storm tracking through the ohio valley and the northeast late next week. Be patient and at least give it until Tuesday before you go back to the negative vibes.

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  9. We need to worship the Euro, its our only hope of cold and snow! Idk about everyone else, but this "winter" has literally drained me of any hope of cold and snow. Models hint week after week, but nothing pans out. Even news 8 is drained!

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  10. I think we've got some wintry air trying to make it's way in early next month. The AO and the NAO both go negative in early February, and the PNA goes positive, translating to below average temperatures for us. How long will it last? This winter has been anything but predictable for long-range forecasts, but I'd say it won't be a prolonged stretch of cold air. The long-range models flip-flip again during the month, which is basically how our winter has gone so far. The least amount of snow recorded in a winter season in Rochester is 22.4" back in the 1889-1890 season. We've already recorded 18.9", so I think it's fair to say we won't have the least snowiest winter ever. At least we've got that going for us!

    Stacey

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  11. Getting snow and white out conditions here in Farmington tonight. So nice to see:)

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  12. Can not give up hope Oz GFS still has a chance a pretty good storm next weekend. Going to go back and forth stay positive. I believe we are going to get a good one next weekend just have to move it west a tad off the coast. The cold air will be there in the form of a H from Canada. Lets see what the 6 and 12z GFS look like tomorrow. We need weatherdan to bring some positive energy to help this monster develop!

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  13. Driving home tonight was like a BLIZZARD at 11:30pm here in Wayland, certainly it won't last but we got a quick 3" or so within an hour. It was the first sight of extreme winter weather in quite some time, well over a year I must say. We drove 4MPH just to make it home, couldn't even see a foot in front of us. Wish it would do that all night long but now at midnight it's slowing down. Will have to shovel tomorrow.....MORE, we need MORE for snowmobiling. Praying for Feb. since winter is almost over!

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  14. Quite an amplitude jump on the MJO forecast diagram.. something is going to happen somewhere! Why not over my house?

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  15. Positive I will be Andrew. Let's get a BIG one for next weekend. We are due.

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  16. Been snowing hard in Hilton for the last 2 hours. over a inch on the ground. and more is piling up.

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  17. Solid 2inches and still coming down at a good clip. I havent looked at the storm much for next week. Whats the time frame for it?

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  18. Where is Weatherguy with any feelings on a possible storm next weekend?

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  19. Euro is very consistent with a storm system effecting our area later next week and weekend, but the GFS is all over the place, with no consistency whatsoever. I think the GFS does not want to give up on the pattern we have had this winter, but is going to have no choice the next few days. Everyone hop on the Euro train and hope the GFS hops on the same tracks!

    And Andrew, you think the pattern breaks by the end of this week?

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  20. Weatherguy you have hit it right on the head. The Euro has been consistent and GFS is all over the place so we have to keep looking at these models and by Wednesday we will have the picture. Not sure what way it will go but trying to stay positive we get a storm and are in the jackpot zone. I do think the pattern will change to more cold air and snow after this week. Still think we will end up between 70-80 inches of snow this year. If that happens then we wil get over 50 inches of snow in February and March which means at least one or two good storms. Just my opinion for whatever that means.

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  21. Winter Weather Advisory just issued! What is the time frame for this storm next week?

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  22. Can't really say David, there is no model agreement at all, but if something were to happen, it would be the late Thursday-Saturday time frame.

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  23. snowless in FarmingtonJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:23 PM

    what are the advisories for? lake effect, or snow associated with a front coming? i am looking outside here in farmington and its just clouds and sun on and off and the temp is in upper 30's. Just sorta wondering if i am missing something. I am really hoping you guys are right about next week. channel 8 didn't seem to think the cold air was going to stick around long after end of next week. but sounds like it might.

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  24. Latest Euro showing some active weather later this week and weekend, one storm coming up the Ohio valley Thursday and another moving up the east coast by Sunday... Hopefully GFS jumps on board tomorrow or Tuesday!

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  25. Town of Hamlin plow manJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:29 PM

    Hamlin got a nice suprise this morning, we got a solid 4 inchs of lake erie snow. I was very suprised to see that band hold together so well and so far inland, with such light surface winds. Finaly some overtime and snow to push around, keep it coming mother nature the more the better.

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  26. Sorry for the bad spelling I mean surprise

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  27. Looks like with this winter weather advisory we are going to get a quick blast of snow from about 5pm to 7pm? Sounds like it may be heavy briefly. Still keeping an eye on things for late next week and weekend. If the Euro is correct and stays with what has been coming it could possibly be a good storm for central and western NY.

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  28. Holy crap - has everyone seen the AO readings??? Been negative for 8 days straight...really negative today... -4. Wow. How come no one is mentioning this? Also, the NAO looks like it is finally being affected by the AO.

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  29. Town of hamlin plowerJanuary 29, 2012 at 5:17 PM

    Andrew, What is the web site that i can use to view the Euro weather model.

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  30. Town of Hamlin plowerJanuary 29, 2012 at 5:21 PM

    The updated snow total for Northwest Hamlin is 7 inchs, i just measured at the hamlin beach state park.

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  31. Radar shows some very heavy snow moving in... maybe we may have a winter storm warning upgrade later today

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  32. Town of Hamlin plowerJanuary 29, 2012 at 5:37 PM

    John DiPasquale needs to take some credit for being the ONLY forecaster in the Rochester area to nail todays forecast early Friday. Great forecast John.

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  33. Wow Hamlin Plower! Hamlin must have been in the epicenter of the unexpected snow this morning. But the GFS is now on board with a low coming up the Ohio Valley Friday-Sunday... And it looks to be far enough south to bring all snow/winter precip! Things could get really interesting later this week, but lets not get too excited yet, a lot could change... Something we all know way too well this winter. Can't wait to hear what others think, especially News 8!

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  34. Jamestown is reporting 58 mph gusts with that band of heavy snow coming up from the SW

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  35. Town of hamlin plower you can go to instantweathermaps.com to see Euro and others. Weatherguy I worry about that HP to our north pushing the strom next Sunday too far east to impact us. It could be a good one but that worries me.

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  36. Hey just wanted to point out that its snowing pretty good here in Newark right now....

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  37. Yeah, its nice to see the snow, I was beginning to forget what winter looked like... But I hear you Andrew, I'm just glad the GFS is starting to buy into the Euro this early on. Generally that doesn't happen until a day or two away form an event.

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  38. Andrew, Weatherguy, the latest GFS shows that storm way to far South and East to impact us. I kow it is a week away and things will change, but that concerns me.

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  39. I do not understand how people do not like snow. We have about 4 inches in Western Wayne county. There has been no wind. It is breathtaking how it is stuck to all the trees and bushes. What a beautiful display of God's beauty.

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  40. Weatherdan, which GFS are you looking at? 18z shows a potent storm and western NY in the bullseye! I will agree that it is still a ways out, but idk which model solution you were looking at.

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  41. The over night runs do not look good for us. We do know the models will change many times this week. However at the current time it does not look good. Even the local mets have sunny for next weekend.

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  42. Way to far South and East right now. Does not look good. Sun would be nice though.

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  43. Yep.. overnight runs didn't look so good anymore. I was trying not to get excited ( I failed ) just because of how this winter has gone so far. Not giving up yet either.. because the players the models are trying to use are still way out over the Pacific.

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  44. About 5 inches of snow in Lyons this morning. Used my snow blower for only the 2nd time this winter. Probably didn't even need to use it today what with the 40+ degree weather in the forecast for the next 3 days.

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  45. Yes we still have to keep tracking. Last night the model runs were not good for western NY if that continues today then we will lose out again. We went from in the sweet spot yesterday to nothing last night.It is amazing how the long range models have been worse than ever with accuracy the last few years. But I am not giving up hope yet still early.

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  46. People there will be no storm. The models were pretty strong with consensus on that last night. Weatherdan you can get back on the meds and stop hoping for a storm. This has been the greatest winter ever warm and no snow.

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  47. Anonymous, be nice and don't knock people for hoping for a storm. Why are you on blog if you like warm and no snow? Move south, you will have what you want year round. What is everyone thinking for long range? is the cold going to stick around or are we going to be back in 40's with rain next week? i don't look any further than the 7 day forcecast usually so i'm not sure whats coming.

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  48. Anonymous aka bitter EK'er aka "so far so good" is a message board troll. They have no purpose to come to a weather enthusiasts blog and be happy about bland boring weather, other than to inflame weather enthusiasts. He/she revels in the disappointment of others. This persons life sucks.

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