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Sunday, January 1

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, BITTER COLD AIR TUESDAY

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Serious changes to our weather coming over the next 24-48 hours. Windy and colder on Monday with snow showers in Rochester but lake snow for Genesee, Wyoming and West Livingston Counties. After 9 p.m. Monday night, I expect bitter cold air and Northwest wind to combine and bring significant snow North of the Thurway into Tuesday.

It's hard to say who will get the most but over 6" for many and over foot for some of the heaviest hit areas. Bitter cold air will cause fluffy snow to blow around easily which could create whiteout conditions at times Tuesday morning. Frequent updates to follow.

61 comments:

  1. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH 8-15inches

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  2. Thank God you are back Scott...weatherdan has had serious mood swings and bitter Kodak guy has been strafing the blog trying to PO the snow lovers...need you to put the smack down. :)

    Ted

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  3. Great to be back! I always miss work while I'm away which is good thing I think.

    Once again the NWS is ignoring Orleans County which should see significant accumulations over the same Monday night and Tuesday timeframe. Tuesday morning is going to be very snowy and bitter cold, I'm all 100% on that.

    Scott

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  4. Where is weatherdan? Scott is usually really good with amounts out of the LES situations so I have faith that we will get a good snowfall. Have to think with the winds we could get blizzard like conditions at time Tuesday morning. The snow ratios will lead to high amounts in some areas.

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  5. Scott do you think they should upgrade the lake snow warning for buffalo to a blizzard warning

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  6. Yesss welcome back Scottie - happy new year all :) Excited for the next few days

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  7. Hey Scott,
    With the lake being so warm and the winds strong and going NW will the the city get a good deal of snow Monday night and Tuesday?

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  8. I was gonna ask if last week's storm or this week's storm is enough to boot that persistent ridge of high pressure out of the southeast?

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  9. I wounder if that band forming off lake erie right now will reach western monroe county with these high winds?

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  10. We could get some off of Lake Erie but it won't be much. Our opportunity comes tomorrow night through Tuesday mid afternoon.

    Scott

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  11. Thats what I figured Scott. After this event, you see anything in the near future?

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  12. Hey Scott,
    I always look forward to your forecast. Dan/Andrew/Anonymous. I love following you guy's to see what's coming. Keep up the great work! Scotty you are the best! you other's have really got my interest in the maps and all. GREAT blog.
    Mike/LeRoy

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  13. The map above shows blue and white. What does that mean? The NWS states that the heaviset snwo will be East of Rochester. A NW wind usually gives Rochester good snow amounts. Why east?

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  14. The NWS states that the TUG HILL could get 3-4 feet. Wow!!! I would love to be there. That would be awesome to experience.

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  15. Weatherdan, the NWS loves to play it safe and go with what historically happens. And typically, areas north and east receive more snow than the Rochester metro on a northwest wind. However, everyone knows that lake snow is ridiculously difficult to forecast and I have seen the NWS under estimate Monroe county snow totals as well as Orleans as Scott mentioned before. Anytime we have lake effect events swing through our neck of the woods, the local mets, especially Scott and the News 8 team, have a far more superior forecast and better handle on what we will get! If I had to, I would bet the house on the News 8 forecast for this one!

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  16. Are there any updates on the potential LES for the Rochester metro area?

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  17. Check out NWS forecast for our area. updated from yesterday. we now have a warning for snow instead of watch. totals of 8-16 in persistant bands. I wonder if they are still being conservative at this point, or if they have enough confidence since it is close enough. or they could be way off and we could see a dusting.

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  18. That Heavy band of snow, north of Toronto that is heading SouthEast, is that the next coldfront/shortwave coming this way?

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  19. Is it wrong that I'm starting to get excited that there is some agreement that the AO will become neutral to perhaps even negative in the medium term? Unless the trough is centered over the Mt. West.. it could possibly mean more potential for winter type weather for us.. yes?

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  20. Caledonia - where is your information coming from, that the AO will go neutral/negative?

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  21. There is a strong lake band developing off of Gergous bay I think we are underestimating the snow totals tonight. We could see 1.5-2 inch snow rates overnight yielding totals of 14-20 inches of snow

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  22. Just about to hit the north shore of Ontario and coming this way. Maybe here around 2pm

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  23. Hello all,

    Yes, David the bands of snow around Toronto & west end of Lake Ontario is the arctic front & it will come through the area early to mid this afternoon. A coating to two or three inches of snow will likely fall for all through 5PM, with a bigger, main band with a connection to Georgian Bay developing late today & especially this evening initially just off to the north & east of the Rochester area across Northeastern Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga counties, & the Syracuse area (Onondaga Co.). This band should shift south & weaken some as it moves into the Rochester area & Finger Lakes. After this main band basically falls apart as it moves south, a spray of flurries & squalls will follow late this evening right into & through tomorrow. Lake snows will slowly begin to weaken & fizzle later tomorrow afternoon & shut off for the most part later tomorrow night. Snowfall accumulations will be minimal today coating to two inches, but a good 4 to 8" will fall for many tonight, with the highest totals of 6 to 10" possible along & north of 104 to the lake. The lowest totals of 2 to 5" should be found across the Southwestern Finger Lakes. Another 2 to 6" is likely Tuesday for many, including the Greater Rochester area, with possibly a bit more 104 points north. So when all is said & basically done by early Tuesday evening, there will 6 to 12" on the ground, while some areas in the most persistent snows could pick up 12 to 20"!! With that said, you'll want to have the shovels &/or snowblowers ready!

    Temperatures during the period will be falling into the 20s later today & within a few degrees of 10 late tonight/early Tuesday. Highs will reach the low to mid teens on Tuesday, & when you combine that with gusty northwest winds 10 to 20, gusts to 30 mph, it will not only cause significant blowing & drifting snows, but also wind chills between -15 & -5 by tomorrow morning! I would be surprised if there were not school delays & closings Tuesday morning. Stay tuned everyone.

    Have a great day & Happy New Year's WNY!

    News 8
    Meteorologist (AMS Seal)
    John DiPasquale

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  24. hey john..i live in walworth..over here in western wayne county..am i in a more favorable spot for the more "persistent bands" you were mentioning then say the city of rochester..i know the east side of the city tends to do well with a georgian bay connection setting shopp like this..i am soo stoked man..getting the snowblower ready as we speak..your expertise on my location and if my area could be in a more favorable band would be great... enjoy the snow everyone!! i will be constanting watching/glued to the radar as the artic front with the initial band slides thru:)

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  25. So excited for the snow! Think we'll see any school closings North of the thruway? (Please say NO!!!Please say NO!!!Please say NO!!!Please say NO!!!)

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  26. Depends where the bands set up. plus with the cold and wind chill. I think you might see schools close.

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  27. This thing will be a bust for the city and eastside towns. It will be more wayne county that gets hit. It is sunny and nice outside have you looked.

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  28. All the conditions are favorable for a significant amount of LES...especially with a Georgian Bay connection. Have you looked? Every meteorologist in the area has. Lol who are these people. It's sunny because the wind is strong from the west right now. Wait until it shifts, it's already started to I believe.

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  29. It is so funny another weather station has 2-12+ for the range of accumulations. Ha ha ha the reality is no one knows what will happen with lake effect. So why even try to predict. All I know is that it is sunny and nice outside right now so when is that band coming to town?

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  30. Getting awfully dark in Rochester now.

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  31. SNOWING LIKE CRAZY IN NORTH HILTON

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  32. I believe you guys are seeing the arctic front come through which will provide a 1-2" burst of snow. NW winds will then develop and the LES will start flying.

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  33. Yes I believe you are right...It's very sunny up at highland but looking out towards the metro it looks very dark and ominous. Let it SNOW :)

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  34. Snowing good in Greece!!!

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  35. There is only one update that really matters and that is from Scott. Although it is hard to predict LES and he will admit that, he is pretty good at figuring out what the totals will be for areas. So we are waiting for Scott!

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  36. Anonymous, I'm getting the AO forecast from the GFS ensembles.

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  37. Light Snow near the airport...

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  38. Take a look at this:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR

    That is the beginning of the lake snow developing once it connects with lake ontario I expect very heavy snow in towns from Greece to webster to williamson.

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  39. Just started very light snow in Fairport.
    Andy

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  40. Went from very sunny to very dark clouds within a few minutes. Hearing some "ice" pellets and snow falling in Fairport.

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  41. Thanks for the link, Charles. Nice Georgian Bay plume setting up! Is there a site where both Canadian and US radar sites are both merged together? It would be helpful to see both the Buffalo and King City radars at the same time.

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  42. Perfectly sunny in Gananda.

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  43. What time are we looking for the snow to begin to come down.

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  44. Not to be pessimistic, but....it is almost 4:00 and while we had a couple of bursts of snow, the grass is green as can be here in Hilton. I'm not forseeing 4 inches by 5:00, and probably not even a coating. I would love to see some snow, but Hilton usually gets skipped and I'm thinking we will get skipped again. Oh well. I'm ready for the kids to get back to school anyway!

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  45. I dont see where you see a forecast for 4 inches by 5 pm today?

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  46. Scott are you working today?

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  47. If that was the arctic front you are talking about it was very weak. I barely recived a dusting.

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  48. I was referring to John's post above...he predicted a coating to 4 inches by 5:00. I'm not blaming him. I know LES is hard to predict. I'm just bummed.

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  49. My main concern with this "event" was that the wind would be too strong for lake effect to develop. That might be happening. Nothing showing on radar right now. We will see.

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  50. Snow is not materializing as forecasted up on Tug Hill. Only 4" at my camp in NE Oswego Co. No consistent band has formed all day due to strong west winds. Weather.com has lowered their forecast from 20-25" snow up there to 10-15" and they may not even receive that.

    Only a minor dusting here in Wayne Co., 1/4 mile south of the Lake.

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  51. Bust bust bust as I predicted! You can not predict LES.

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  52. This is what he said I dont see any 4 inch total by anytime till overnight tonight

    ......A coating to two or three inches of snow will likely fall for all through 5PM, with a bigger, main band with a connection to Georgian Bay developing late today.....Snowfall accumulations will be minimal today coating to two inches, but a good 4 to 8" will fall for many tonight, with the highest totals of 6 to 10" possible along & north of 104 to the lake.

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  53. Now there's nothing on the radar at all, anywhere over the lake. it's like someone switched the LES machine off. Where did it all go?

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  54. when a cold front moves through all of the LES is disrupted for a good 2 hours or so... watch the radar after 5:30 and see what happens... once it begins developing it will not take long to get going. Look up over canada and you will see a lake snow already going off of Georges bay.

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  55. The winds are too strong to get any lake effect going. Not to be negative, but my guess is that you will see snow totals go way down because of this. Just my opinion. The trace to 2-3 inches already did not materialize.

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  56. Don't mean to interupt the current LES chatter..but my answer earlier to where I was getting the AO info was misleading I think. The way I wrote it sounded like I am pouring over the GFS ensemble members and noticing the AO was forecast to go negative. Actually I've been watching the Climate Prediction Center site ( which uses the GFS ensembles )

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    Back to the LES talk.

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  57. Those of you that are skeptical wait till at least the start of the LES warning... and the newly issued advisories... they dont even start till 6 PM today

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  58. I did see the newly issued warnings. Thanks Charles. Let's see what happens.

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  59. I could be wrong but I think Scott said last night this would be for tonight and tomorrow in the morning so not sure why everyone is getting nervous? Maybe i am wrong but once the winds go out of the NW there will LES. I also do not like to model hug but there are changes coming in the atmosphere and I think we should keep an eye out in about 10 days for interesting times.

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  60. BUST BUST BUST. I WOKE UP TO 1 INCH IN NORTH WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY. THIS IS WHEN I REALLY FEEL FOR THE METS BECAUSE IT JUST SHOWS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO FORECAST AROUND HERE. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT IT WANTS. JUST ONCE THOUGH I WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT WORK THE OPPOSITE WHERE WE FORECAST LOW AND ACTUALLY GET SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NT BE MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF. PITIFUL WINTER SO FAR.

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