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Wednesday, February 8

Quiet Until Late Friday



Written by John DiPasquale:


Quiet & seasonably chilly today with limited filtered sun, especially north. Some minor accumulating snows across Pennsylvania this afternoon & early tonight will of course miss us thanks to high pressure, which will keep things quiet around here through much of Friday. Temperatures will moderate well into the 30s tomorrow & Friday, before at least one, if not two, shots of Arctic air blow in for the weekend. The first one looks as though will arrive Friday night into Saturday with some minor accumulations likely Friday night into early Saturday. This could very well be followed by yet another shot of even colder air late Saturday night into Sunday with a burst of snow & limited lake snows Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend will likely have a tough time getting out of the teens & low 20s, with again Sunday possibly being the coldest day of the weekend. We should moderate to more seasonable levels early next week, & then we will have to watch the POTENTIAL for things to get interesting & more active later next week into the following weekend. Stay tuned.


Have a good one everyone!


19 comments:

  1. It is always wait until next week where things could get interesting and potential. Same old story same horrible winter. Looks again that there is no potential for LES this weekend as was previously mentioned.

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  2. Yes I see what John is talking about next week. Dont want to jinx anything but day 9 on 2 of the more reliable models are painting a picture of what most people on this blog have been waiting for all winter long. Lets all cross our fingers. I have a good feeling about this one. There seems to be something different with this one over past flashes of hope this winter.

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  3. Day 9 none of the models have been reliable 48 hrs out. Are you kidding me think this is different and a big strom is coming. By the way what models are you talking about?

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  4. This link shows the GFS developing something 10 days out. Obviously this is a long way out but at least we have some hope. http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=hght&region=us&t=10d

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  5. I was going to say the same thing. Every week it is wait until next week and then that week comes and nothing happens. I will believe it when the snow is falling and accumulating. The models are no good until a few days before a storm and even then they could be wrong.

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  6. Looking at the GFS and Euro at 240 hours out any storm if it did come to volition would yield big snows to our east and miss us as usual. That is what I am seeing on the models but who knows I am not an expert.

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  7. GFS develops a storm on the 10th day on almost EVERY run. Models trend toward climatology that far out so they are unreliable like any forecast beyond 7 days. Sorry Charlie!

    Scott

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  8. So what are you saying Scott? Also you said you would have a better idea on Friday about the LES potential but sounds like in your forecast you are pretty sure there will not be much LES now? Kind of confused how you said Friday but now are sure?

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  9. What are you asking? Now I'm confused :)

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  10. Not sure what you meant in your post on the GFS and sorry Charlie does that mean do not even bother keeping an eye on this for next weekend? I thought when a storm appears on multiple GFS/Euro runs there is a higher liklihood it could happen? Also the potential for LES do you already feel there is no potential because before you said a better idea on that would be Friday. Also don't you think we are going to get a general snowfall friday night from that arctic front. I think we could see 3-5 inches from that?

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  11. Scott help me out please on my last post. Thanks

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  12. Does anyone else have any epileptic facebook problems when viewing the blog??

    JM

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  13. Sorry Charlie means it's pointless to track a storm 10 days out. I don't care if every model hones in on it. What's the point? I watch but don't speculate until the system is in the U.S. If you ask me, that storm will probably end up as a rain maker for us. As for snow potential this weekend, I do expect a 1-3" snow on Friday night with that Arctic front. Dry air and high pressure will squash lake effect on Saturday but lakeside towns may benefit from their location and pick up a fluffy 1-3" early on Saturday.

    Same setup on Sunday early with a quick 1-2" snow then bitter cold and some early lake effect East and Northeast. That's how it looks right now anyway.

    Scott

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  14. Even if that storm misses us to our west, it looks to draw down some colder air and the possibility of some prolonged LES, but as Scott, mentioned, still a ways out. Lets just all enjoy the cold and snow this weekend and worry about next week come monday!

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  15. There is no such thing for a prolonged LES for the metro area. This is pathetic another storm will bring rain next week. We got real cold air this weekend with no storms to take advantage of the cold air. Rochester is no longer a favorable area for snow we either get storm tracks to our west for rain or too far east. Sick of this non- winter spring come now so I can stop hoping for a big storm.

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  16. You guys need to give Scott and the Weather crew a break! Their job is to forecast the weather as accurate as possible, and predicting LES and storms 10 days out, I believe is not in their job description.

    Personally, I have faith in Scott and his team.

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  17. No one is getting on Scott and his team in fact I beleive them. That is the frustration someone put they think next weeks storm has a different feel. I believe Scott it will be rain and also believe Scott that there will be little LES this weekend. Just frustrating with the warm lake waters and no big LES or storms.

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  18. Weatherguy what are current feelings about possible LES snow this weekend and a possible storm next week? You are on top of things.

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  19. Scott and the News 8 weather team's forecasts have been pretty accurate this whole lame "winter" season and they had this weekends forecast nailed way before any other News station. Next week/weekend looks to be extremely stormy, and I agree with Scott that the first one will be rain, but may pull enough cold air down so that another storm could bring us some decent snow. But who knows, still a while out, plus I'm no met. so don't take my thoughts to the bank...
    Any thoughts Andrew, Caledonia, News 8????

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