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Thursday, November 29

WHAT WILL DECEMBER BRING?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Many on the blog always seem to give up on Winter before it begins in Western New York.  It does appear that December will be above average in temperature and thus less snow the first 7-10 days.  Longer rage, both the AO and NAO will likely turn negative allowing cold air to pour South.  The question then becomes, where does the cold air go?  Thanks to high pressure in the Bering Sea, the downrange trough has set up along the West coast of the United States.  We need that ridge to break down allowing for lower pressure there which in turn would promote long range toughing in the Eastern United States.

Time will tell but I would bet on the second half of the month being colder and more snowy than the first half.  I'm predicting a white Christmas!  You gotta belive!!!


41 comments:

  1. I like the positive thinking Scott. Maybe it will fuel some positive blogs. Just posted my similar thoughts on last page. Way to early to throw winter underneath the bus already. Dont be gun shy, give this winter a chance.

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  2. We need that ridge to break down allowing for lower pressure there which in turn would promote long range toughing in the Eastern United States.

    No we don't.

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  3. I am very excited to see what this winter brings! Yay for a white Christmas!!!

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  4. What would it take to cause the "Omega High" to break down? Tropospheric warming?

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  5. I think we are heading into another drought. This will be the 5th driest November on record. I hope we have a white Christmas but I am not counting on it at all. December looks mild and snowless.

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    Replies
    1. Historically its nearly 50/50 odds for a white Christmas in this region. So toss a coin.

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  6. I'm holding you to that prediction Scott!

    No one, not one, predicted last years boring warm Winter. Now, for some reason were supposed to get more snow but then its going to be a warmer December??

    Does that make sense?

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    Replies
    1. Sounds about right! No one can predict it and they say they are the most accurate, no hype...and they are the biggest hypers!
      3 days out is bout all they can predict and even at that they are wrong. lol. I bet its just like last year. Yeah hold em to it! :)

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    2. Average high temps drop pretty fast in December. "Warmer than normal" is a lot warmer December 1st than it is December 31st. Thus the no snow comment first 7-10 days of December. Later in the month it can be warmer than normal and still snow.

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  7. This is my prediction for December. Most of the storms will go to our West leaving us on the warm side. We will get briefly colder behind the front before we get warmer again. This leaves us only with lake effect chances which Rochester is not in a favorable position to receive.

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  8. Received a fresh coating of nothing last night in Wayne County. Not even a flurry.

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  9. complain complain complain...blah blah blah. Go complain to your husband or wives. this blog is for people who are interested in the weather not complaining about it. When it does snow are you all going to complain that the roads are too bad? Can't have it both ways. Sit back and wait to see what happens is what i am going to do. Thats all you can really depend on.

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    Replies
    1. Hamlin Hopefull PlowerNovember 30, 2012 at 5:57 PM

      My thoughts exactly. I dont think there is as much complaining on a Buffalo Bills blog page. They have been in a drought lasting over a decade. Not just one season and month.

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  10. Michele in PenfieldNovember 30, 2012 at 4:54 PM

    Hi Scott and Crew, I was reading a Washington Post article that interview Judah Cohen, and it got me wondering about the NAO. What exactly is that meterologically speaking and why does a negative NAO sometimes suggest snowy cold winters. I posted the link to the article below. Thanks in advance!

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/leading-forecaster-judah-cohen-favors-harsh-winter-for-washington-dc-east-coast/2012/11/21/ea5ff790-33e8-11e2-9cfa-e41bac906cc9_blog.html

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  11. Day 10 Euro ensemble mean has that Bering Sea Omega block breaking down. Is it rushing things?

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  12. Great to see some snow on the ground!!!

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  13. We got a dusting last night. Pathetic.

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  14. Dusting in Hamlin is better than nothing. It makes it look and feel like winter. Models and NAO,AO predictions are still suggesting conditions more favorable for snow and cold after this week, heading towards the end of the month. I will take the warm snowless weather in the begining of the season all the time.

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  15. I'll take it now too. Average high is still around 40 I think. Hurts my feelings more when it is 57 degrees in January.

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  16. Anyone else see the MASSIVE +PNA a week from now on the GFS expanding enough to force the Polar Vortex over Canada down into the midwest? Looks like it could create some storms with a track right through here.

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    Replies
    1. Bit on that a week ago.. I'm going to wait this time before getting excited..lol.

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  17. What do you mean by Massive +PNA.

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  18. Its a weather pattern over the western Pacific. It features high pressure on one side, low pressure on the other. It influences weather in the rest of North America by altering jet stream flows. Right now, it is causing a mostly zonal flow for us, and big storms out west as the low pressure side is off the coast of CA right now.

    Someone add or correct anything if necessary.

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  19. Oops I mean weather pattern over the EASTERN Pacific. It is causing our air to come from the Pacific instead of the Arctic right now. I think PNA stands for Pacific - North American Oscillation.

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    Replies
    1. Thankyou, now I can look it up.

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  20. Warm weather fans might want to take advantage of tomorrow through Tuesday mornings weather. Winter fans dont worry winter might flex her muscle's in the next few weeks. She is going to stretch alittle next week before she may really lets loose. Looking more promising every day.

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  21. Not sure what Chris and Hamlin are looking at with the weather data? All things show the in 7-10 days from now any storm we get will be wet not white. You guys are just so hopeful and make up stuff that is from fantasy land. Just wait and see minimal storms and snow in December above average temps and the rest of the winter will mirror last year. I have been on record and continue to support my data and predictions. Please watch my winter weather forecast that I posted three weeks ago.

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  22. (Hamlin)Fantasy Land PlowerDecember 1, 2012 at 9:02 PM

    Andrew, nice to see you finally use your real blog name and not just Anonymous when blogging.

    Its never never land, not fantasy land. Maybe you should come and visit Peter Pan and myself. You have to leave your poor attitude and way over confident forecasting abillity at home. We will all have to wait and see what winter will bring. I will be happy either way. I am not going to discuss the weather with you your 4 year old attitude is too much for me to handle. Cheer up alittle and stop acting like you know the future or how to forecast it, I sure dont.

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  23. Hamlin my friend I always blog what I say and say what I blog. Also, I think you have just discussed the weather with my 4 year old attitude with your post? And you do not know the future or how to forecast it? "Winter might flex her muscles in the next few weeks"? " Looks more promising each day"? Sounds like you may think you do know the future or how to forecast it? Call me crazy I just go by the things you post. Yours respectfully Anonymous ( not).

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  24. Again, I agree with Andrew. You are right on buddy. In December all storms will go to our West and we will be on the warm side. We will get briefly colder after the cold front passes before the next storm moves to our West and pumps mild air into our region. Next week looks mild the whole week accept for maybe Thursday and then it warms up again.

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  25. You two are BEYOND ridiculous and your persistent negative attitude is both infuriating and pathetic. I'm about ready to write both of you off as trolls, which honestly I should have done weeks ago. Of course none of what I've said up to this point will matter, because you will continue to be negative until we eventually DO get a nice winter pattern, and even then you will likely continue to complain.

    500 mb ensembles and NCEP teleconnection ensembles both currently support a colder pattern developing by mid month. That is subject to change over the next week or so, but as of now signs seem to be building towards colder weather by the middle of December. End of story.

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  26. Since when is an opinion negative. We are using what we know about Meteorology to give an educated opinion. That is what a blog is for. We are not calling you a troll because you are giving an opinion. You are just being childish. I respect your opinion and I hope you are right because I love snow. I just do not see the pattern you are referring to coming to reality in December. That is NOT being negative.

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  27. Mmmmm, Interesting. The NWS agrees with us:

    TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT TWO
    WEEKS ARE MORE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ONLY THE
    OCCASIONAL INTRUSION OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR. ANY SUCH COLD SHOT WILL
    LIKELY GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC WARMING WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS. FOR WHAT
    ITS WORTH...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO FAVORING A HIGHER
    CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

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  28. The October snowpack in Siberia was above average, which has a 90% correlation with cold and snowy winter weather in the eastern US. Last year, the SIberian snowpack in Oct. was significantly below average. A deep snowpack has already accumulated in much of the Arctic, even far into southern Canada. This helps to enhance cold air outbreaks in the US. Snow breeds snow, cold breeds cold. Last year, most of Canada had little snow and cold so when fronts did come through they were weak. There was no blocking pattern on this side of the world. The NAO and AO have been trending negative for months.

    That's why I think this winter will be at least average in terms of snow and cold. I don't know about storm track, but as a snowmobiler with a camp off the east end of the Lake, I am not as interested in that anyway. The new CFS model, which incorporates many ensemble runs, not just its own, agrees with a mid-December cool down, so does the GFS and Euro. Every meteorologist is talking about a mid-month cool down as well. None of this happened last year. Last year, winter weather lovers were hanging their hats on the GFS, which kept predicting a drop in temps and the PV heading east every run, 10-15 days out, and it never happened. The Euro never showed that.

    All that being said, who really knows what is going to happen? I don't. All I can do is look at the existing evidence and it points to a normal winter at minimum. I do not predict that is going to happen, but I hope it does. No one can tell if the humungous Omega block in the Bering Sea is going to break down like it should, and shift all of that building cold air north of us down onto us. If it doesn't move, that Omega block is going to give AK another brutal winter. Things just look a lot different than last year, not sure what it will materialize into, but I can say with SOME confidence that this winter will not be like last year.

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    Replies
    1. Good stuff lets hope it workes out. I like the cold almost as much as the snow.

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  29. I sure hope you're right Chris. Just curious where do you get that Siberia snow pack data?

    Thanks
    Andy

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  30. I read about on wxrisk.com

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  31. Thanks I'll have to check it out.
    Andy

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