NORMAL SNOW, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
Written By: Scott Hetsko
I know there has been some talk on the blog lately about this forecast being sort of a cop out. I've got news for you, long range forecasting is rarely correct and you must speak in generalities because the specifics are impossible to know. There appears to be no strong signal in the Pacific to go by for us in the mid latitudes so the NAO will be the main driver to this winter's weather. I feel that we've only got about a 3-5 week period where we may experience harsh winter conditions. As for when, that's unknown. Otherwise in general we may get up to 100" of snow in Rochester and slightly above average temperatures for the entire winter. Recent storm tracks up the coast would be favorable for a few nice snow storms in Rochester, let's hope!
By the way, anyone who is on here saying they know what will happen this winter is either ignorant to meteorology or insane...maybe both! :)
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There isn't a person on the planet that can predict what the NAO will do more than 10 days out or so. So if that is going to be our main driver... it's understandable that the winter forecast would be even more difficult than usual.
ReplyDeleteHasn't it been predominantly negative since July? Can I hope that we get persistence for 3 more months?
Is there a time lapse view of the NAO for any considerable period of time? Perhaps from last year (by week or month) till now?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Andy
Andy, try these links... The first one is from august this year to now and the second one is a time lapse since 1950 or so
ReplyDelete1.)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
2.)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.timeseries.gif
I hope everyone has not given up on winter already. You shouldnt even give up on November yet. NAO is trending negative. As the end of the month gets closer, it looks more likely there will be a few good rounds of cold air droping in. I would not bet on a snowless November just yet. Saturday evening there could be a good shot LES in our area. If we get a shot or two of cold air, a little held from a clipper to the north, and a more active storm track setting up, November could surprise us all.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Get the plows ready it wont be long now.
Weatherguy, thank you for the links. These are interesting. Now I'm going to get picky--- is there a 10 year chart that gives the data in a little greater resolution?
ReplyDeleteAlso Hamlin worker, I agree it's way too early to predict the winter. I posted some data in another threat in this blog that confirms that November is a poor predictor for the winter snowfall. For instance in the winter of 98/99 we had 0.1" snow in November and still had 111" for the season. In 06/07 we had 0.5" snow in November and still made it to 107" for the season. In 09/10 we had 0" in November and still had 89" for the season. In 10/11 we had 0.4" in November and still hit 127" for the season.
Also important to note that since 1940 our average snowfall for November is around 6"-7" and annual avg is 89-90". Since 1940 we've had 17 winters with less than 2" in November and the annual avg for those 17 winters was 83" for the season. So the annual average was only reduced by the November deficit.
Andy
Weatherguy, I should have looked before I asked. You can get the NAO in tabular format for downloading here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
ReplyDeleteThanks again for the lead.
Andy
No problem, and this weekend/early next week looks pretty interesting...
ReplyDeleteWeatherguy what do you mean pretty interesting because I am not seeing that with the models?
ReplyDeleteStalled front to the South and a weak area of low pressure may produce a period of snow Tuesday and Wednesday. Not a large amount but a few inches possible...we'll see!
ReplyDeleteScott
Hi Does anybody know the link to watch the Channel 8 WINTER READY 2012, that they broadacasted last Wednesday @ 5:30, showing the salt mine and all that?
ReplyDelete