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Monday, December 17

Brisk, Raw Tuesday on Tap





Written by John DiPasquale:

Hello all!  The same old story today with more mild weather & eventually it will turn quite wet again come late today, & especially tonight into Tuesday.  Temperatures will slowly dip back into the mid & upper 30s Tuesday afternoon, which should cause the rain to at least mix with, if not change to a bit of wet snow before ending Tuesday night.  Little, if any, accumulation will occur for most, but there may be a slushy coating to an inch or two over the high terrain south, especially in Wyoming County.  Still a little too warm for most of us to see much if any snow with this storm, though. 

Now after a quiet, cool Wednesday, we will warm back up with some rain developing Thursday in advance of a powerful storm that will chill us down & flip any rain showers to some snow during the day Friday with lots of wind to boot.  The colder air should deepen, along with quite a bit of moisture in the air should be just what we need to get some accumulating snows & lake snows going around here late Friday into Saturday.  That will be a bit strange to see for sure!!  Perfect timing though, for what looks to be good odds for a white Christmas if latest indications hold.  A little more lake snow MAY fly Sunday right through Christmas Eve, as it stays at least seasonably chilly, but of course this is still a week away, so we'll see if this holds, but it definitely looks promising snow lovers!  Hard to say how much, but looks safe to say that at least some, if not most, will be able to say bye-bye grass & hello winter white!  Stay tuned. 

15 comments:

  1. Hey, John. Thanks for the info. Any idea how much snow for Friday and Saturday? I guess I am asking, are we talking big storm or just your average every day snowfall? Will travel be affected?

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  2. Don Paul of WIVB, responding to a blog post:

    "it will depend on the precise boundary layer wind direction, but some part of the Rochester area should get some decent snows, if not hefty."

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  3. I like our setup for sizable lake effect snows Friday night through Saturday if this verifies. Favorable 850 mb wind alignment but AS IMPORTANT the relative humidity in the boundary layer will be high at that time period. That's important so as the lake won't have to work hard to PRIME the layer.

    Stop dreaming, a white christmas looking better for Rochester area.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm crossing my fingers as hard as I can.

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  4. Amen. Good news Scott.

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  5. Scott, Will the lake snow be in the normal areas east of Rochester? Or will it include western Monroe and Orleans county?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Scott: how much snow are we talking here?

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  7. From recently issued NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook:

    ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

    Sweet baby Jesus it's about time.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Is this for Friday or Saturday?

    ReplyDelete
  9. FROM THE NWS:

    A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
    THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS MAY BEGIN
    THURSDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THERE
    IS A CHANCE THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR
    DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

    RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
    CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS
    LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED
    SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

    THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
    AND THE DETAILS AS TO WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW
    WILL BE. STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

    Finally Finally Finally

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  10. I can do without damaging wind...but please let the snow pile high.

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  11. I'd say most areas will get at least a few inches of snow with higher amounts North of Route 5/20 Friday night and Saturday. Depends on if that low slows down over Eastern New York which would help enhancement bands.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  12. So, all day Saturday, too, or ending Sat. morning.

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  13. 12z run of the Euro showing the low a little further south and east... Scott, you feel pretty confident that this will be a cutter, or do you see a potential for the storm track to shift and play out into a more classic double-barrel low scenario?

    ReplyDelete

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