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Tuesday, December 25

MERRY CHRISTMAS SNOW LOVERS!

Written by John DiPasquale:

Alright snow lovers...here's what you've been waiting for...the snowfall map!  Significant winter storm starts late Wednesday & takes us right into Thursday with big snows for all, with slightly higher amounts where deformation zone sets up, which is almost always debatable.  So with that said, we have the highest amounts occurring in the Finger Lakes, a bit closer to the storm center, but there's a chance that the bullseye could shift a little to the north & west, & if this is the case the Greater Rochester area would end up with the higher numbers, which some runs have been suggesting this a possibility.  Heaviest snows will likely fall from around or just after midnight Wednesday night through 7 or 8 Thursday morning the way it looks now.  Snows will slowly ease during the day Thursday, especially during the afternoon, as we dig out.  Either way, we will all be needing the shovels & snow blowers, & the making up for lost time here in Upstate NY with snow will continue for the foreseeable future!  Enjoy, & be safe everyone!  More updates on here to come in the coming 24 hours...

60 comments:

  1. Would the strong winds bring blizzard conditions to our area?

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    1. I would say not blizzard conditions, but it will be quite bad late Wednesday night into early Thursday, as winds will likely not be quite strong enough for the blizzard conditions to exist. Have a great night & rest of your Christmas Gilbert, & all bloggers! Enjoy the snow all!

      Best,
      John

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  2. What ever the final snowfall ends up being I think we all agree it will be a significant storm all snow with strong winds. It is going to be a fun morning whether we get 7 inchs or as much as 18.

    I hope we get 18 that would be excellent, 8-10 I still expect. Time will tell.

    Finaly we get a storm with winter storm warnings issued it has been a long time coming so lets enjoy and hope for the best.

    Also i would expect some blizzard condition to accure in the early morning in the open areas on the north side of the Lake Ontario boardering counties. But a full fledged blizzard NO.

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  3. This is going to be fantastic. Going to have to get some extra gas for the snow blower so I can make sure the older couple up the street can get out. I'll do every driveway on the street..that's how much fun I'm going to have.

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    1. Sarcasm is easier to detect in person due to tone of voice. Some people will enjoy the snow. I have a feeling Rambo will not. Or maybe this is JM.

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    2. Maybe he isn't kidding. Some people...myself included...enjoy snowblowing. Especially while the snow is still falling.

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  4. I love doing stuff like that for people...sometimes its just doing the bottom of someones driveway for them because the plow makes it 3 times higher than the actual snow. snow blower will be working hard thats for sure.

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  5. Funny how channel 10 has the exact same numbers as News 8 not sure anyone is sure about their forecast. Hamlin was positive about his low end earlier today. We shall see.

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  6. still sticking with my 12-16" hopefully nothing significant changes between now and tomorrow.

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  7. Wayne County Storm Trackers on Facebook is predicting 10-17 inches by Friday morning...gonna be an exciting 24 hours either way.

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  8. Very surprised how quiet this blog is considering the strom coming. Thought people have been waiting 2 years for this?

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    Replies
    1. Christmas. People are at family gatherings and such. We'll see an uptick tomorrow and Thursday.

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  9. i think because its christmas night and people are with family maybe? still find a way to sneak on here LOL. we have all day to obsess over it as well since it wont snow until evening!

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  10. from NWS....

    THE 8 TO 16 INCH FORECAST IS FAIRLY
    CONSERVATIVE...AND STILL TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
    MODELS WHICH STILL DROP HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE
    SECTOR OF THE STORM AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH...IT IS
    POSSIBLE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10:1. THIS COULD
    PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOO. PERHAPS AS THE EVENT GETS
    CLOSER IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN
    THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE TRACK...THERE IS NO REASON TO
    ADJUST THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

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  11. Woot! Can this be true??...I'm not sure my snowmobile will know what to do! This will be so exciting (but pray for those that have to be out on the roads to stay safe). This will be so great to keep the kids busy during the rest of their break, bring it on!

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  12. Channel 10 talks about Lake enhancement NW of Rochester. Why would their be lake enhancement only in that area. Does not make sense. Hamlin you could see well over a 1ft as well. Still thinking only 5 inches?

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    1. Longer fetch NW of Rochester. And with temps being not too far below freezing, a longer fetch is needed to produce any lake enhancement of note.

      Boy that 0z NAM output sure is beautiful. Too bad the NAM likes to inflate QPF...

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    2. I would love over 1 foot that would be great. I will stay with 8 or 9 for now, but either way this is fun to watch. I will be excited once it finaly starts snowing hard. It looks to stick around for a while with some very cold weather maybe one week from now. Very exciting thats for sure.

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  13. Macedon, look at the map for NY and the lake. On a NE wind, its a very long stretch over the lake and it favors NW Monroe county, and Orleans County...

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  14. Thats what makes forecast so crazy in western NY. So many different variables its amazing...

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    Replies
    1. The Lake, the Mountains and the Atlantic make it almost impossibile to forecast.

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  15. Let me ask this it seems this storm is one of the most difficult to forecast for numbers. Is it safe that we will for sure get at least 10 inches in Rochester?

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    1. I would say it is never safe to put exact 100% numbers on a storm like this. They are never for sure cases until it is over.

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  16. What does Scott think about this storm?

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  17. David, I live in West North Central Wayne county and on a NE wind I always get lake enhancement so that is what confuses me a bit.

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  18. This storm is very large with a lot of moisture. look at the severe weather side of it with the tornadoes. Got to think once this hits the cold air will it not explode? Will this storm bring thunder snow?

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  19. There are blizzard warnings up all over the place. What are the chances they upgrade this to a Blizzard warning?

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  20. Macedon..... With a storm like this, any type of fetch over the lake will help. It will just help more for North Western Monroe..... Same thing for normal Lake Effect on a NW wind. We dont get as much, or as intense snow because of the short fetch. But on the other hand, webster and point east enjoy the longer fetch over the lake and more snow....

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  21. If this storm was 5-10 degrees cooler, Lake Enhancement would be a big factor...

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  22. My 2 cents: NOTHING is a certainly with snowfall numbers. If that deformation zone sets up further south, we don't get the really big numbers. The deformation zone sets up over us, we get smacked. We can look at models all day long but if that sweet spot isn't where we expect it to be, numbers are off. That being said, I'd say things have been pretty consistent in putting us in that sweet spot at least for a little bit. So, now we fine tune, and sit and wait!

    Stacey

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  23. There is a blizzard warning for 8-12" of snow and winds similar to what ours will be:

    WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

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  24. Stacey, As the storm actually starts to form, is it possible to be weaker, or stronger than models say..... Obviously models are models, and reality is reality..... Do you adjust your forecast on actually how the storm begins to grow?

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  25. This storm is moving way to fast to get 10 inches of snow. The snow will be 10 hours at best and it is out of here. Like Stacey said if we are not in that "sweet spot" we will be lucky to get 6 inches. This is a 6:30 pm tom. to a 4:30 am storm Thursday.I think all of you could be setting yourself up for a let down. 6 inches is ok so take it and be happy.

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    1. The expectation is for a 6 hour period of 1-2 inch per hour rates. Do the math: that's 6-12 inches in that span, with lighter snowfall on either side of that probably ranging between 2 and 4 inches. Add it up, that's 8-16 inches which is what the NWS is calling for. Quick hitting yes, but also pretty intense for a time. That is, of course, IF we get the sweet spot. I trust that we will considering the fact that the storm is playing out almost exactly as expected so far.

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  26. Fine tuning the next few days think we only have about 20 hours to get it figured out?

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  27. Lets see what tomorrow brings.....

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  28. NAM trended a bit higher with QPF, GFS a bit lower. Further highlighting the need for nowcasting.

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  29. NAM sucks do not believe it we will get 6-8 inches by noon Thursday. This LP is occluding quickly.

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    1. Revise "NAM" to "Every model" and I'll agree with the first part of the first statement. The occlusion has been anticipated for the last several days, we're still on track for the current forecast to hold with minor revisions if necessary.

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  30. My best professor at Penn State (Lee Grenci) always preached that you cannot really predict the amount of snow a synoptic storm will bring until the onset of the storm. If you're not in that special location, usually 100 miles NW of the center, then you're not getting the biggest amounts. I like our 10-14" forecast at this point for most of us and I'll be driving back to Rochester from Scranton PA tomorrow so I can predict and broadcast this storm on News 8 tomorrow evening. Then like a flash I will be gone until Monday!

    Good night, Scott

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  31. Safe trip home, Scott!

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  32. Good morning all! Storm looks HUGE, looking forward to this evening!!

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  33. Im hearing reports of 6inches of snow in 2 hours in SE Illinois with thunder!

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  34. holy cow. i was glad to wake up this morning and still read that scott is sticking with his forecast amounts. I read that the NWS was thinking there may be higher than 10:1 snow ratios, if that were the case we would get more, or do you think scott already figured that in?

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  35. Everything looks good Farmington..... Enjoy the storm!

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  36. I am still sticking with my 12-15 inches with leaning towards the 15 for Rochester.Like I believe David mentioned before the air temperature will be colder and help the lake with the wrap around enhancement.

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  37. its the day of and we are still talking these big amounts, sweeeeeeet. can't wait to see the snow coming down tonight.

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  38. Should be a good night! Looking forward to it. Storm looks awesome on radar

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    1. David,
      Good to see you on here again! I have not been on much. I work in the Southern Tier now so tomorrow's commute will be interesting. Now, instead of heading 36 miles north on 390 from Sparta, I take it south 36 miles to Bath! Perhaps it will be a "4 wheel high all the way in and back" kinda day! I sold the plow last winter. So it will be shovel time for this guy! Glad to see that we are finally going to get one!
      Chris

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  39. Looks like some thunder snow in Western Ohio if my lightning map is correct.

    Andy

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    1. Totally buy that! Would not be surprised to see a little of that here within a few hours of midnight tonight. Enjoy Andy!

      John

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  40. Looks like my 12-16" still looks good. I think were gonna be very close to the sweet spot so we will have to see where it sets up. So far its looking good everyone. Just a matter of time before that snow starts falling.

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  41. won't be surprised if we get more, like 16-20". But in order for that to happen the sweet spot of the storm has to come over us and we have to be in it for several hours.

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  42. 15.5 inches is my estimate, but we will see. I'll be back on this evening.

    Mike

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    1. Is this storm starting to act weird? Looks like the secondary low is forming earlier and more south and east? Are we still on track for the heavy snow? I am starting to feel this storm is acting strange?

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    2. The secondary is forming a little earlier than expected, but not enough to drastically alter the forecast.

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  43. It will be great to get so much snow! It has been quite a while since we have had a nice big snow fall to enjoy. I am tempted to stay up late tonight and see how it unfolds... Maybe hear some thunder snow :)

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  44. This is showing signs of not looking like we thougth it was going to be. Pittsburgh is going to get half of their 6-12 inch prediction. The LP has transfered much more quickly than it was anticipated. If it goes NE we will be lucky to get 4 inches. Please someone let me know what I am seeing is wrong?

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    1. What you see is the secondary developing only SLIGHTLY earlier than expected, perhaps offset by a slightly faster forward movement of the primary low. The official NWS forecast for PGH calls for 3-6 inches not 6-12 inches, and that is what they are on pace to get. Everything is still very much on track.

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  45. any updates from anyone? news at noon stil sounded promising for 10+ for everyone, some 14-18.

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