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Wednesday, January 2

A Little Snow Here & There


Written by John DiPasquale:

The rest of today will feature some snow showers & a few squalls this afternoon into the evening.  Will it add up to much?  No, but there could be a fluffy 1 to as much as 3" up near Rt. 104 & points north, while the rest of the area should not see any more than a coating to an inch or two.  This will likely be enough to make it somewhat slick, though, for the late afternoon & evening rush so be careful when heading home.  The culprit for the bit of snow today & early tonight will be an Arctic backdoor cold front & some limited lake effect.  The front will slowly push through & wash out as it does so late today & this evening.  What's left of the front will then get dragged back through as a warm front by a little clipper passing by to the north late Thursday into Thursday night.  This will aid in producing some additional snow showers & a few squalls off Lake Erie late Thursday morning into the afternoon.  Any accumulations Thursday are expected to be on the very light side again, with highs tomorrow reaching up near 30 after starting the day in the low to mid teens, & probably even single digits across many parts of the Finger Lakes!

Friday will be even a little milder, but brisk with maybe an early snow shower, otherwise it should be quiet with some sun developing thanks to high pressure building in.

The weekend at this point appears quiet & fairly mild Saturday, & a little colder with a bit of snow in the air Sunday.  Stay tuned for updates regarding the weekend outlook into next week in the days to come.  It looks like warmer air will try to get in, but may get snuffed out by a backdoor cold front late Tuesday/Wednesday.  We'll see how this plays out & sets the stage for the next storm system late next week...        

50 comments:

  1. I would not give up on Sunday/Monday just yet. I think there will be some snow. Also be aware of next weekend and keep a close eye.

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  2. I do not want anymore snow! It was nice for the Holidays, but it is time for Winter to leave.

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  3. I'm afraid you live at the wrong latitude to be hoping for no more snow after 10 days of actual winter weather. Try Atlanta.

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  4. Is this Wednesday snow a little Georgian Bay connection?

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  5. Sold 3 inches downtown

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  6. About 4" here in Sodus Point, but closer to 8" along Rt. 104 where the heart of the band spent the most time this afternoon. Areas east of Lake Ontario got more than 6" as well.

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  7. Nice wintry period we have had since Christmas. Haven't had time to get outside and enjoy it yet. Hopefully we can keep a snow pack deep enough to get the snowmobile out when I get some time.

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  8. I have been able to put 760 miles so far on mine! Better get it out this weekend. We have a impending warm up this weekend, hopefully short-lived.

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  9. Oops, I mean next week, not this weekend, regarding the warm up.

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  10. Euro weekly is all over the place lately. First it shows a colder second half of January, now it doesn't. I'd bet substantial finances that its next run shows something completely different. The theme the next two weeks is still a warmer than normal (but not immensely so) pattern for next week followed by a more seasonable chill the following week. After that is about the time when some part of the northern hemisphere (not necessarily here, though I still think it will be here) should begin to experience the effects of the SSW event. I think the SSW combined with the three major teleconnections (NAO/AO/PNA) going towards neutral in the longer range is driving the Euro weekly crazy. One interesting tidbit...there is currently a very strong storm system in the Bering Sea. Such storm systems have a tendency to teleconnect with an eastern U.S. trough 2-3 weeks after the storm enters the Bering Sea. I've seen this so-called "Bering Sea Rule" play out several times this season without fail, so there's very good reason to believe we'll see a decent trough here at some point later in the month.

    Side note: News 8 Weather Team needs to post more often ;_;

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  11. Anyone seeing that crazy spinning vortex over the western part of Lake Ontario

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    1. NWS discussion on this feature:

      A LOOP OF RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX IS FORMING OVER THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS PRIMARILY BEING FORCED BY PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. TIME IS THE OTHER FACTOR HERE...THE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CORIOLIS EFFECT TO BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE...AND IS AIDING IN DEVELOPING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS IT MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...MOST OF IT WOULD BE OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH JUST THE NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTY SHORELINES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS.

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  12. its been snowing here in Hilton since 2pm. I snowblowed a solid 4 inches around 6pm, and weve gotten another 2+ since then and still snowing steady... Fluffy big flakes

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  13. Nothing in sight coming as far as winter weather. It will be very quiet at least until February.

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    1. You may have to wait until February if you live right on the east coast. Our region is more likely to see something of note long before that, even during the upcoming "warm" pattern which is more of a "less cold" pattern. Significant positive temperature departures will only be observed for 2-3 days late next week, after that we go into a more variable pattern with the MEAN being above average temps (emphasis on MEAN, because shots of colder air will occur at times). Keep in mind the strong storm in the Bering Sea, the Bering Sea Rule and the SSW event. These things could combine to make a sizable chunk of January's second half fairly interesting in these parts.

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  14. I hope what you are predicting comes true, weeks without any storm to trck or follow get pretty boring around here, although i do enjoy the occsional lake effect, especially the stuff that surprised me last evening with several fluffy inches

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  15. What the heck are you talking about with this storm in the Bering Sea and the Bering Sea Rule and SSW event? Are you nutso or what? Please anyone from News 8 or other weather people shed some light on what this maybe whacko is talking about? They keep bringing it up and up it is starting to make me nuts!

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    1. SSW is "sudden stratospheric warming." One of those is happening right now. Here is a paper about them:

      http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/Strat.pdf

      There's a lot of technical jargon in there, but it basically states that when the polar stratosphere warms up, someplace in the Northern Hemisphere gets colder as a result.

      Unfortunately there isn't much on the internet about the Bering Sea Rule, but if you venture over to the AccuWeather forums and find the thread about this winter season you're bound to see some very knowledgeable chap reference it. Since it's tough to find anything about it in places other than internet forums I won't be surprised when/if Scott/team yells at me for referencing it and tells me to stop, but it hasn't failed yet this season.

      Why am I repeatedly referencing these things? To combat the "hurr durr winter is over" posts that I see here every freaking day, using something other than mere probability (which should be enough in itself). I'm sure more than half of them are troll posts, and I do not care one lick. I hope someone from the weather team will verify at least SOME of what I've said, because without any expert verification I may as well just be some whacko. I have little to no doubt that what I've posted is correct, but as far as everyone else here is concerned I'm just some random internet person with no credentials, unlike the weather team.

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    2. Looks like the polar vortex might split pretty soon. SSW for the win?

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  16. Well I'm aware of SSW events. The mechanics of it are voodoo to me..Rossby Waves etc. But I have a very general idea of what it does. The Bering Sea rule I've never heard of.. but I've seen people use rules like it before. Trough over Japan means trough over the Eastern US a week later for instance.

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  17. No matter how you slice it we are going to be starting over in regards to the snow pack. That bothers me. Not sure if we get another stretch where we can build it back up or not. But any talk of smooth sailing with unending mild the rest of winter is full of it. It will snow again and we will have cold days.. just not sure if it will be long duration or more of an up and down type deal.

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  18. If the GFS verifies, our snow pack will still be in tact, just not as deep. IT strange how significantly different the Euro and GFS are...

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  19. Euro weeklies turned colder for weeks 3 and 4. 6z GFS was ridiculous with the cold shot in the long range.

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  20. There's only one place these models belong right now: in the trash. They've flip-flopped more than a raw pancake, thrown completely out of tune by the lack of strong climate signals. There's only one model worth its weight in cr#p these days: the good ol' current observations pencil-and-paper model.

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  21. Not a model reader but all I know is we continue with several hours of pretty fluffy snow in bristol. Coming down at a decent rate recently.

    Andy

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  22. Yes, there is A LOT of mixed signals on this upcoming warm up. Some are calling for modified cold air (30s, possibly low 40s), others calling for strong SW winds and temps near 50. Also disagreement on the duration of the event, and John mentioned a back door cold front messing with things. Time will tell. NAO, AO, PNA all close to neutral which leads to no clear signs of what is going to happen.

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  23. What are all of talking about. Next week Wednesday-Friday will be in 40's and approaching 50 with rain. The snow pack will be gone and winter is over. Give it a break all signs point to a mild rest of the winter with minimal snow and no big storms. Just sit back and relax and enjoy the nice weather. If you want winter go to the arctic.

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    1. Oh I hear that wet sliding sound as bitter EK just slithered out from under their manhole cover.

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  24. Its crazy how this blogg falls off the map and all the trolls come out of hiding to bragg that winter is over when we have a week of no storms etc. I'll be back on to check when there is something worth reading about, otherwise the numerous "anonymous's" can have fun typing to themselves on here.

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  25. Angry snow people want to take their shovel and go home. Why can't you snow mongers talk about the warm winter weather? Why does it have to light up when a big storm is coming which creates danger and risk for people? Grow up farmington stay off the blog until disaster is emminent. You can be angry but the truth is the winter is warming up and the snow is melting. Winter is done but you can't handle the truth so take your snowblower and go hide.

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    1. I am on your side! I use to like Winter, but as I get older, I am sick and tired of keeping the driveway cleared, always worry about ice dams forming, watching out for the other driver, the wear and tear winter does on your vehicle, etc. Come on warmth,get here soon.

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  26. But farmington, I'm a good Anonymous ;_;

    Brett Anderson over at AccuWeather is leaning towards a colder pattern setting up across much of North America (including our region) for the second half of January. He believes that the newest Euro weekly is closer to the right idea for that time period than the last run, at least regarding temperatures. Precipitation, being much much harder to predict at the long range, is a different story. And FWIW, Elliot Abrams is also hinting at the same idea, albeit with much less conviction.

    Regarding teleconnection ensembles, they all show rather wide spread amongst their members further out in time, especially the AO. However, the means at this point appear to be this: neutral/very slightly negative PNA, weakly negative NAO, moderately negative AO. This lines up decently with the output from the Euro weekly, and also with Brett's thoughts on the long range.

    Summarized, the signs at this point (none of which are set in stone) are indicating that winter is NOT over, despite what our anonymous troll friend says.

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  27. I still stand by my guess from back in Dec that the second half of January may get interesting. Sure we may have a brief warmup and a bit of rain, but I think Scott was right back in the late fall when he said this winter will be variable. It's not over - anyone who's lived here for longer than a year knows that.

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  28. I think the troll meant "imminent"

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    1. The scary part about all these ridiculous postings is that no one knows what weather is truly to come. Mother nature decides the fate of such and everyone who speculates about warm-ups or snowstorms is just speculating-do you all have meteorlogical degrees or some type of weather intuition? Lets get real folks, wake up in the morning, look outside your window and see what the day brings-there's your weather prediction, oh I guess it would be a weather reality then wouldn't it.

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  29. When people from News 8 post on the blog once every 6 days it should show you humanoids that winter for the next few weeks and probably beyond is waning. You can keep posting garbage from useless weather people from other areas that teleconnections and SSW and Bering Sea rules are going to lead us to the next giant earth shattering storm but reality is reality. Warm-up late next week with rain wiping out the snow. Go back into your igloo and wait with all your mumble jumble. I am here to tell you that winter is slowly done and we are heading to an early spring. Nothing emminent is coming and yes e insted of i because I hate the i before e rule.

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    1. "winter is slowly done and we are heading to an early spring"

      Prove it.

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    2. It is only the beginning of January, you have a 50/50 chance you are right based only on chance, but I doubt your quote "I am here to tell you that winter is slowly done and we are heading to an early spring" is factually true with enough evidence to support it all the way through March.

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  30. The reason News 8 posts here once every 6 days is because they have better things to do than deal with riffraff from internet strangers.

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  31. Big change in the NCEP 500 mb ensemble mean for next week, as it now shows the warmup ending pretty rapidly by the weekend with a return to more seasonable temperatures. Will be interesting to see if this idea shows up in future runs and/or in other models.

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  32. This is a joke. if you don't want winter or its snow storms, move somewhere else. We live in WNY where winter does happen, i choose to enjoy it. i like to get outside and clear the driveway, i enjoy driving in snow as i see it as a challenge, and i don't worry about icedams because i insulated my attic properly which prevents ice dams and melting snow from heat loss. I'm done posting on here. Sick of talking to people who post as anonymos and act like they know whats going to happen. At least the person talking about the bering sea etc sounds like he has done his research. I hope everyone gets what they wish for for the rest of winter. Have fun walking around in a sloppy muddy mess if it warms up.

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    1. This is precisely how not to respond to trolling. As a matter of fact, there is no proper way to respond to trolling. When a bozo shows up and tries to rile people, the best course of action is to leave him in his dark corner to shout at no one in particular. I know it's hard to ignore such blatant stupidity sometimes, but an audience is exactly what he wants. Take that away from him and he will have no reason to be here. Of course there's always the off chance that he will keep coming back indefinitely, but it would take a very sad (possibly mentally deficient) individual to do that.

      I know exactly what his next post will be too: he will call me a moron, rip on everyone for liking snow/cold, provide a poor justification as to why our opinions are wrong and declare winter over ad nauseum. Then he will say something like "you all can't handle the truth" and reiterate some of his points. If he won't leave this place then he should at least come up with something new to say.

      Time for weather...pretty gusty out there right now. If this snowpack was drier we would be dealing with some pretty serious visibility and drifting issues. As of yet only the top layer of fresh powder is being whipped around.

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  33. Please don't feed the trolls!

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  34. You are a moron, everyone is dumb for liking snow/cold, your opinions are wrong and declare winter is over, it is over. "You all can't handle the truth" the warm-up is coming and the snow is gone.

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    1. I'll admit, I chuckled at this.

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    2. I would bet this person posting these entries has ZERO knowledge to back any of his statements up. Like any blog he comes on here to stir the pot. He is probably some loser that has no job and lives at home with his mother posting on the blog from her basement. Here is an idea leave your geek cave go to school and get some education. Maybe then you can back your statements with some actual facts and science!!

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  35. This anonylous blogger has got to be as ignorant as they come. Why don't you go get a job or something you must be tired of staying in your mammas basement by now

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  36. This is exactly why News 8 doesn't post anymore :c

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  37. Screw all of you. I am getting off the blog for good to go CMC.

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  38. This blog is a complete joke. To save their reputation, I suggest News 8 not to have a blog any longer. This blog reminds me of a bunch of kids fighting in the sandbox.

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