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Friday, March 22

Big Trough Persists

Written by John DiPasquale:

Happy Friday Bloggers!  The polar branch of the jet stream will continue to stay south of us through much of, if not the remainder of the month into the start of April!  Temperatures will be in the 30s the majority of the next 5 to 7 days, possibly hitting 40 a couple times mid to late next week, which is still well below the average of mid to upper 40s for the last week of March.

As far as snow goes, we will see occasional lake snow today into the start of Saturday, before it essentially shuts down later Saturday into Saturday night with high pressure building in from the northwest.  Then we wait & see about late Sunday night into Monday with the next winter storm coming up from the south.  At this point, it looks like most of it will stay off to the south & east, but it looks like a close call, plus it's still a few days out.  How strong & effective will high pressure be to the northwest be in keeping the inland storm at bay for us here in WNY, how quickly does the coastal storm take over, & where exactly does the coastal low set up with relation to the coast???  We'll see how this evolves, but the POTENTIAL for at least a minor accumulation of snow does exist late Sunday night into Monday.  We'll see...Stay tuned to News 8 through the weekend for updates.    

Have a great Friday & weekend everyone!

   

17 comments:

  1. This is what happens when there is no snow in December...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We actually had near normal snow in December, it just came all at once right near the end. I see your point though.

      Delete
  2. I love the snow....just wish it could happen and be 60s at the same time

    ReplyDelete
  3. Remember that guy who came here predicting an early spring every day for about six weeks?

    Yeah, about that...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey, at least the Snow lovers must be happy. They have their Winter finally.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, but...

      No really big storms. No steady cold and snow. No real local snowmobiling or cross-country skiing.

      Delete
    2. I rode my snowmobile locally.

      Delete
  5. Michele in PenfieldMarch 22, 2013 at 1:35 PM

    I love snow but I am ready for it to be over and looking forward to spring. Let's hope the NWS thoughts below will come to fruition:

    LOOKING FURTHER OUT AND SHARING A MUCH MORE POSITIVE MESSAGE AS WE
    CLOSE IN ON APRIL...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN UPDATED
    ONE-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK TODAY. NEW YORK IS INCLUDED IN A REGION
    WHERE THEY EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
    APRIL. WE JUST NEED TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER HERE IN MARCH AND WE
    CAN SEE THEN LIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TUNNEL.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Some of you may recall, circa end of Jan early Feb, I posted some interesting statistical observations for snow data since 1940. I noted that since 1940, in years where we were in a snow deficit Nov-Jan, that mother nature seemed want to make up that deficit during February and March. In fact the average was ~45% more snow in Feb and March than had accumulated in the previous 3 months.

    I think right now we are closing in on 39"-40" Feb-March vs. 35" Nov-Jan. Based on what John said, and with a week left in March, it seems we will have no problem ending up with at least a few inches over 40" for Feb-Mar.

    Also in early Feb, I said that statics supported that we'd have no problem making it to 75" or maybe 80" for the season. I think 75" is a guarantee and 80" isn't out of the question.

    Now the big question is what will happen in April? Will we get 10" or 20" like we have in some years? If so that would get us close to or above 90". Or will we be closer to our April average of 3.5" and end the season under 80"?

    Even though I'm a snow lover I for one hope the CPC is right with what Michele in Penfield posted calling for above normal temps for April.

    I'm not gloating, I just find the application of statistics to help predict future outcomes as interesting.

    Andy


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Andy,
      Thank you for your insight and for backing it up with facts.
      Ray

      Delete
  7. Still another pathetic winter as far as snow goes for Rochester. How can you be happy with a 70" year? We had 1 lousy storm way back in Decemeber. Every storm since then missed us west, east and south. We were spectators once again all winter long. We will be spectators yet again for the next storms that will, wait for it, miss us south and east. What a shocker. Terrible.

    ReplyDelete
  8. There are a couple people here that should have jackets with arms in the back.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Winter officially over! Wow 75 inches of snow this season

    ReplyDelete
  10. Michele in PenfieldMarch 25, 2013 at 5:00 PM

    Channel 8 team, just curious with the message below from NWS. Do you think this big trough pattern that we are in will take longer to depart than the NWS predicts? Is this pattern similar to a pattern we had several summers ago (can't remember the exact year) in which we had below normal temps and frequent spotty rain showers? Why do these troughs develop and "hang" around in the NE like this?

    TAKING A LOOK AHEAD...INTO EARLY APRIL...THE 12Z GFS AND EUROPEAN
    MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT THE PERSISTENT TROF
    ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MAY BE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. ENSEMBLE SPREADS
    ARE STILL QUITE LARGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME STARTING TO
    BREAK DOWN A NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN WHICH HAS SUPPORTED THIS PATTERN.
    WHAT THIS MEANS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
    NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
    APRIL. WHILE THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS STILL FOR BELOW NORMAL
    TEMPERATURES...THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL SUGGESTS A LIKELIHOOD
    OF A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN APRIL. IT WILL BE
    INTERESTING TO SEE IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW THIS
    PATTERN CHANGE...OR IF LATER RUNS WILL TREND IN THE OPPOSITE
    DIRECTION. TIME WILL TELL...BUT AT LEAST THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME HOPE
    FOR THOSE WHO WOULD LIKE SOME MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.


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  11. Bring on spring please!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Im beginning to enjoy the 40s.

    ReplyDelete

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