Well, this is definitely a tricky storm to forecast with regard to snow, but I am going down the middle for the Greater Rochester area between the NAM & GFS. My belief is that snow will develop this afternoon & continue into early tonight before it changes to a wintry mix, & possibly even a little rain, especially south & in the valleys later this evening & overnight. If it stays colder like the NAM is going we will see more like 4 to 8" of snow, but if the warmer GFS is right, snowfall will range from a coating to an inch, maybe 2. Either way, the highest amounts of snow should be south & especially east of Rochester through the start of Tuesday. A glazing to a tenth of an inch of icing is a distinct possibility too later tonight.
Any snow rain mix early Tuesday will change over to some flurries & a few snow showers with a bit of sun, gusty winds & falling temperatures Tuesday afternoon.
Gusty winds, unseasonably cold temperatures, snow showers & lake effect squalls will be around from time to time from Wednesday through at least Friday with wrap around moisture spinning around the stagnant storm over Northern New England & near the Canadian Maritimes.
So if you are looking for spring, as it officially starts at 7:02am Wednesday, you will likely not be finding it around here anytime soon.
Have a great day WNY!