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Monday, March 18

Some More Wintry Weather on Tap

Hi Everyone,

Well, this is definitely a tricky storm to forecast with regard to snow, but I am going down the middle for the Greater Rochester area between the NAM & GFS.  My belief is that snow will develop this afternoon & continue into early tonight before it changes to a wintry mix, & possibly even a little rain, especially south & in the valleys later this evening & overnight.  If it stays colder like the NAM is going we will see more like 4 to 8" of snow, but if the warmer GFS is right, snowfall will range from a coating to an inch, maybe 2.  Either way, the highest amounts of snow should be south & especially east of Rochester through the start of Tuesday.  A glazing to a tenth of an inch of icing is a distinct possibility too later tonight.

Any snow rain mix early Tuesday will change over to some flurries & a few snow showers with a bit of sun, gusty winds & falling temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

Gusty winds, unseasonably cold temperatures, snow showers & lake effect squalls will be around from time to time from Wednesday through at least Friday with wrap around moisture spinning around the stagnant storm over Northern New England & near the Canadian Maritimes.

 So if you are looking for spring, as it officially starts at 7:02am Wednesday, you will likely not be finding it around here anytime soon.

Have a great day WNY!     

48 comments:

  1. NAM is rarely ever right. Safe bet an inch tops. Things warm up later in the week and then spring settles in as been predicted by "The Troll" This season will be 72 inches of snow at best. Pretty pathetic winter and spring has been prevalent more than most want to admit. Our average temperatures for February were higher than normal. Get the grill out this weekend and next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And March has been below normal.. all during the time you claimed it was spring. And we MAY reach the low 40's for the last week of March.. good call. ( golf clap ).

      Delete
    2. Troll, you've been wrong with every prediction. Starting with winter is done and spring is here in January. -- WRONG! We've since had 35" of snow.

      Then you said we won't even get 50", err I mean 60", err I mean 70"--- WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!

      Then in February you said get ready for an early Spring. Then you said spring is here--- WRONG! and WRONG!

      Then in March you said winter is done.-- WRONG!

      You really are a bloviating ignoramus.

      Delete
  2. Wear gloves, wool hat and a sturdy coat while grilling.

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  3. Grass is already covered in Caledonia. Snowing at a decent clip.

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  4. Is there a chance for some pretty good LES tomorrow night into Wednesday morning?

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  5. This storm looks very weak. The precip is all broken up.

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  6. The NAM nailed this system, expect mostly snow this evening by the looks of the observations elsewhere. Everyone should see 2-4" as advertised by News 8. The NWS continually overestimates the temperatures near the lake and leaves us out of headlines when we should clearly be included...

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  7. Really!! The NWS is still saying it will rain tonight. I have heavy snow in Western Wayne county with 3 inches on the ground. They need to wake up in Buffalo.

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  8. Freezing rain here in chili, with surface temp at 30.5 degrees...

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  9. Limited snow (less than an inch) before a fast changeover to sleet/freezing rain last night. There is a slushy messy inch of mix on the ground this morning near Bergen.

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  10. A couple inches of very heavy snow in Lyons. It certainly is heart attack snow.

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  11. Hi All!

    Anonymous 6:18, some lake snow will fly east of Lake Erie tonight into Wednesday with several inches possibly over Wyoming, Southern Genesee & parts of Livingston counties, but for most just scattered snow showers & a few squalls with a coating to an inch or so possible tonight and Wednesday. Temperature will be falling again behind a cold front this afternoon into tonight. It stays wintry through the rest of the week, with a mainly tranquil weekend probably in store.

    Have a great day everyone!

    Best,
    John

    ReplyDelete
  12. John, Any signs of spring and temps warming up?

    ReplyDelete
  13. The signs have been up and posted for several weeks. Look at the forecasted temperatures this weekend. Not calling an inch of snow winter. I know the snowmongers will call this winter diffferent than last year. But show the proof we are barely over 70 inches and done for the winter. February the average temps were above average. The Troll has been spot on. Kudos to it! Get the grill out!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Add that to your list of WRONGS from anon 3:53 on 3/18.

      Delete
  14. It will snow until May! Winter is here to stay. The climate is changing and the seasons are blending. Pretty soon there will be only two seasons. Winter and Summer. Planet X is upon us! (Just joking) Trying to have a little fun on this blog. Sometimes everyone takes the Winter season so seriously. It is Western NY for heaven's sake. I actually think this Winter was pretty normal. We could of used a bit more snow though.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi David, Unfortunately, David, if you are looking for nice spring weather, which many are by this time of year, I don't see any significant warm ups between now & the end of the month according to most of the data I've perused through. The unseasonable chill & some snow from time to time will fly through much of the rest of the month the way it looks now. We'll see if this holds into at least the start of April too. Big trough will be stubborn the way it looks for awhile. Hang in there!

    Best,
    John

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  16. Thanks John, thats what I was afraid of. Cold weather really kills my business this time of year. The only small hope I saw was the AO going positive by end of the month and in a big way. We will see if that plays out...

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  17. As annoying as this cold is this late in the year.. it makes spring that much more glorious when it finally shows up. At least for me... and I'm a big fan of winter.

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  18. I would just like to point out that the CPC was calling for a much warmer than average March for much of the US back in Jan. and even Feb. Just goes to show that the weather does it wants...

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  19. Weatherguy what is the deal for next Mon/Tues period? Some are talking about a potential east coast storm?

    ReplyDelete
  20. John is right! You Snow lovers must be in your glory now. No Spring weather for awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  21. GFS has been persistent in bringing a modest snowfall for everyone next sunday/night and into monday. Definitely something worth watching...

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  22. Yes, I will watch this Weatherguy. I will watch it bring nothing like it usually does. Can not believe the snowmongers continue to think we will get a storm this late. We got 2 wimpy ones all winter!!! As I said there is no way to get a storm this late that would bring anything greater than 8 inches. Look, it will be for me, worth watching the spring like weather this weekend. BTW today is the first day of guess what? SPRING! Once again "The Troll" is correct. It has had an outstanding record this winter. Above average temperatures for the winter (particularly February). Plus way below average snowfall totals, as predicted, barely above 70 inches. Enjoy the grilling this weekend and keep watching that potential snowfall for Sunday/Monday. Just do not watch to hard because you may hurt yourself for no reason right Jo-Sef, David, Andrew, Weatherguy, Chris and Hamlin Plower?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What a jerk!

      Delete
    2. Anon troll 1:36 is a lonely mental defective that's been Wrong with every single prediction. See posting from anon on 3/18@3:53 with an accurate summary of his disfunction.

      Delete
    3. I am not sure which makes me laugh more - Troll himself and his success in hooking you guys with his intentionally provocative posts, or that so many get so angry at an obvious tactic...

      It is an honor to be mentioned in the likes of Jo-Sef, David, WG and HP, I must admit! :-)

      Delete
  23. So ignorant... I'm not going to even entertain your last post.

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  24. This guy is ruining the blog........

    ReplyDelete
  25. Another burst of cold and a winter storm for Europe.. this has to be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming we had earlier this winter.. doesn't it? Blocking is usually persistent.. so I'd imagine it will come back after this latest episode breaks down.

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  26. It appears Stacey does think there will be a storm Monday if you saw her broadcast on the 4:00 news.

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  27. Stacey, can you recall the last time you have seen the AO that negative!? I find it amazing as it is off the charts!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was consistently this negative in 2010-11, minus a few days in Feb. 2011. Of course, that was one of the more cold and consistently snowy winters in the past decade.

      Delete
  28. Anon could you please explain what you mean when you say AO that negative? What impact does that have on our weather. Many of us like weather but do not know as much as other people on the forum and like to learn. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  29. Think of the AO as the polar vortex, the core of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere. When the AO goes negative, it usually correlates to this core of cold air shifting south toward the US, allowing for bits of the cold air to break off and affect our area. Hope this clears things up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anyone else heard about the LES north of Syracuse? Northern Tug Hill received (and continues to receive) 40" of snow. NYS Rt 177, which runs west-east across the northern Tug Hill, closed this afternoon for several hours due to the heavy snow. Trucks were stranded in the tiny hamlet of Barnes Corners. My camp is on the SW corner of the Hill, where much less snow fell - 13.0" as of 7:00am this morning - but more is expected tonight.

      Delete
  30. That helps thanks Anon 6:22.

    ReplyDelete
  31. No storm for Rochester Sunday/Monday. That will be a mid-atlantic storm. It will be a miracle if we ever get a storm this way. Unbelievable. North, South, East, West. We are in a bubble. Storms are deflected away from us all the time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe we typically average only two big storms per winter, so being in the bubble is nothing new. I believe we had three this winter (Dec 22 & 27...I think) and another in February. Correct me if I am wrong. Had none last winter.

      Delete
  32. Will Spring ever get here???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Spring isn't here?!?!? I thought it arived in January!

      Delete
  33. Check out the weekend temperatures. Nice get out the grill and cook some steaks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lets go to the beach!

      Delete
    2. I see 38 degrees..am I missing something?

      Delete
  34. I think Channel 10 will be mentioning getting out the barbecue pretty soon.

    Already last weekend Capt. Josh was mentioning that now weekends are going to get busier and busier.

    GAG. Guys, just give us the weather forecast and that's it. Don't plan our lives for us.

    I can't wait to hear Janet Lomax swooning over the upcoming Lilac Festival. NOT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Forget about the Lilac Festival this year. If we do not get a break from this cold and snow, the Lilac trees will be late in blooming.

      Delete
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