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Monday, February 17

A LITTLE SHOT OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT - TUESDAY

Written by John DiPasquale:

After the going below zero, -1°, for the 8th different day this winter here in Rochester early this morning, the abundant sun is helping moderate us some into the 20s this afternoon, which is an improvement from yesterday, & a nice recovery from early this morning.

The next weather maker is a fast moving area of low pressure with a warm front right on it's heals, which will likely lay down about 1 to 3" of snow late tonight into Tuesday morning.  Snow will likely be heaviest between about 3am & 8am, which will probably cause the morning commute to be slick & slow tomorrow.  Snow will taper to scattered snow showers & flurries during the morning & linger at times into much of the afternoon.  Highs Tuesday will make the low to mid 30s with a brisk wind adding an extra chill to the air, but it will certainly be milder than it's been.

Even milder air will make it's way in later Tuesday night into start of Wednesday with early highs up near 40 Wednesday, before easing back through the 30s Wednesday afternoon with a gusty wind & scattered snow & rain showers ending as a few snow showers & flurries Wednesday afternoon.

A stronger storm & warm front will charge at us late Thursday/Thursday night with some rain & milder air likely sneaking in briefly late Thursday night & to start Friday, before it's blown out by a cold front due to cross through Friday morning with some rain.  Temperatures may begin in the 40s to near 50 early Friday, but likely fall back into the 30s during the late morning/afternoon.  A seasonable air mass will likely be with us to begin the weekend, but later Sunday into next week most signs are pointing toward a return to unseasonably cold air again with more chances of snow & lake snow returning to round out February.  Stay tuned.          

Enjoy the sun this afternoon everyone! 

69 comments:

  1. Latest 12z GFS still showing BIG storm for the sometime during the week of the 24th. Not sure if latest EURO shows anything. But it is something to keep an eye on in my opinion.

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  2. 1-3 inches. Wooopdy doo!!!!!

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  3. CCCC did you see the latest EURO temps for ten days out? That has to be crazy because that will not happen and do not think it has shown that before. MAJOR cold for us if that was accurate. No more please!

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    1. The Euro was actually showing even more intense cold back in early January. Its current depiction of the cold in 10 days may be somewhat exaggerated based on the ensemble means. We do appear to be on tap for a major arctic shot for the final few days of the month, with the -20C isotherm at the 850 mb level dropping down close to, or into, our region in each of the major ensemble means.

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    2. I believe the individual 240hr run on the last EURO had the 850mb temp at
      - 30C which would put us at what Fahrenheit -15?

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    3. Heard talk of Artic Vortix #4 heading our way, and that it will be the worst of all. Does that mean we can expect wind chills of -45+, as the last time the worst was wind chills of -20 to -35. With many towns and independent snow plowers running low on salt, it concerns me as to what the roads will be like and and thus travel conditions.

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    4. More like -5 to -8 given the time of year.

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    5. Anon 3:27 do not be a wise guy not going to get that cold just saying EURO is showing cold and will not verify plus did not mention any wind potential. Please do not be an alarmist.

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    6. I don't think he's being a wise guy at all, just giving an honest inquiry. He is partially correct in that the polar vortex will be involved yet again, but the resulting arctic outbreak doesn't look to be as severe as the one in early January. The air temps would get well into the negative single numbers IF the current Euro verified, but as we've already stated its depiction is probably exaggerated.

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  4. Where's the early spring time troll that was hanging around last week? Frozen in place? HAHA!

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  5. Ha ha is going to feel a bit like spring but only for a brief time Thurs/Friday. Those EURO temps will not verify they were crazy but EURO has been pretty good this winter with temperature models.

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  6. And now we have a Wind Advisory. That's going to be problematic even without much falling snow.

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  7. Ho hum. Boring boring. Flood watches are up. Snowpack will go quickly.

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    1. I have over a foot and a half in my yard. Highly doubt all the snowpack will be gone.

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  8. Wind shouldn't do too much snow that is on the ground is not loose anymore and what will fall won't be much or last too long.

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    1. It doesn't take very much new snow to cause issues when gusts are in excess of 40 mph. It won't be the worst thing ever, but there will be spots of low visibility.

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  9. Does not appear Scott is buying the snow and cold returning next week. He mention he thinks the worst of winter is over on his 7 day he thinks.

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    1. He said that we're "slowly leaving the worst of Winter." Note the terms "slowly" and "worst of." This has been a very harsh winter, so the worst of it slowly ending does not mean we're out of the woods regarding cold and snow. Not by a long shot.

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  10. I keep hearing talk of polar vortex 4 so I am not why Scott is saying the worst is over. That statement is quite bold.

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  11. There will be no Polar Vortex 4 so stop it! There really was only Polar Vortex 1 the other 2 were mild so please do not get carried away. Enjoy the spring temperatures Thursday and Friday.

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    Replies
    1. Polar Vortex 1 featured an unusually aggressive southward push of the polar vortex, all the way down into the upper Midwest. This led to low temperatures near all-time values in the Midwest, and brutally cold wind chills across a large portion of the country. Subsequent polar vortex intrusions were much less aggressive, but still produced very harsh winter conditions across a large region. It appears that there will indeed be yet another polar vortex intrusion in about 10 days, but it won't be nearly as harsh as the first one was, and possibly less harsh than the others as well.

      Personally I would totally enjoy the spring temperatures on Thursday and Friday...if it wasn't going to be so damp and/or cloudy for a substantial chunk of both of those days. Friday isn't even going to be that springlike anyway, more November-ish by the look of things. I did notice that there may be some gusty thunderstorms to go along with the rain Thursday night, so that could be fun.

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  12. The wind has very abruptly kicked up at my residence.

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  13. The models really show very little for next week potential wise. It will be boring ,boring, boring.......

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    1. yeah because the models are always right beyond 3-5 days.

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    2. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      "STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLTOPS AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS."

      "...A SQUALL LINE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING SUCH A SQUALL LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY."

      "...INCREASING WINDS AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT AND IN PARTICULAR THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING THE MELT OFF AND INCREASING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS."

      "SOME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT MAY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CAN DEVELOP."

      Yup, totally boring, nothing happening at all.

      -_-

      -_-

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    3. Any chance we could get dry slotted and keep the rain down to a minimum?

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    4. The dry slot comes behind the cold front so...not really. Our best hope is simply a weaker cold front.

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    5. Ok thanks. Like most of us, I hate winter rain, so hopefully it's weak or short lived rain. The potential for a squall line will be interesting to watch for sure.

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  14. Picked up no snow in Gananda.

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  15. Sorry Snowdog maybe next week. CCCC you are right about Thursday/Friday with that squall line the winds could get REAL strong. Something that has to be watched. Also am I correct in that the 12z GFS also showed strong cold for next week?

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    1. Everything is showing strong cold for next week. It looks like 850s will be in the vicinity of -20C to -22C, which would support lows near zero Fahrenheit for a time. The cold should ease during early March, but any full breakout into spring is still a long way off.

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  16. I see no storms though.

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    1. Not on the models at least. Remember the near consensus that last week's big noreaster would slide harmlessly out to sea? It happened at approximately the same time range as we are currently at for the storm potential during next week. This is not to say that the same thing will happen this time, just pointing out the dangerous game one plays by hugging the models. The overall setup is much more important right now. That said, I think the first week of March holds a greater potential for storminess than next week does.

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    2. Hi CCC, with the brief warm-up happening this weekend, do you believe most of the snow and will be gone off houses rooftops? Accu Weather says that with the warm-up ,and rain, there is the potential for roof collapses.

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    3. There should be a good deal of melting before the rain moves in. I don't believe roof collapses will be a big concern around here.

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  17. Records are going to be shattered next week...

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    1. Which records are you talking implying?

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    2. Yes, what records??? Cold?

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    3. I am guessing the one jerk is back pretending to be Weatherguy like they did to Snowdog. I think Weatherguy was going to take a break because of this jerk. I hope not but that is what I am guessing. Weatherguy does not just post things like that without clarifying. I wish this would stop.

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    4. BTW there is on the models a monster showing on the most recent EURO off the coast. It is showing 8 days out and pretty far off the coast but something to keep a distant eye on. They have at times trended west this winter question is how far and if it stays there. GFS is not really showing it. EURO has been pretty good.

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  18. What does this mean Weatherguy? The3 cold is not that earth shattering 0 as CCCC has said is no big deal. There are no storms on any models? So not sure what you are talking about? You usually just do not throw out unsubstantiated comments very confusing.

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  19. Let's all just agree to not bother replying to outlandish, unsubstantiated comments from anyone. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, otherwise it amounts to nothing more than petty trolling. Next week's cold does not appear to be record breaking for anyone based on the ensemble means, which are far more reliable than their operational counterparts for that time range.

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    1. Do you think after this week's thaw, our snow pack will be replenished anytime soon?

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    2. That depends on how next week's storm potential pans out. If it doesn't happen, or if it misses to our south, we might have to wait awhile.

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  20. Sorry guys, it was me, but it cut out most of my post for some reason!!! Records are going to be shattered next week... if these crazy models verified a week out. Don't think it's going to be as cold as some ensembles are hinting at, but it would not surprise me if we have a few days not getting out of the single digits with bouts of lake snow. Winter looks to lock back in for a while after this weekend.

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  21. Scott just tweeted that temps COULD get below zero during the first few days of March. That would be pretty nuts.

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  22. I remember back in March 1993 we had the memorable snowstorm and then one week later, like someone threw a light switch, it was spring and the weather stayed nice from that point on. Maybe history will repeat its self again like that this March...bitter cold one week, then spring like temps the next. or maybe I'm just doing a lot of wishful thinking.

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  23. Nothing shows on the models right now. It looks to be pretty quiet next week with not a lot of snow. I am sticking with my thought that we will end up less than 100" this year. Just my opinion. March can go either way.

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    1. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

      Yep, just a whole lotta nothing chilling out at 970 mb off the coast. Recall the typical trend for storms at that range this season, and you'll see that a "quiet" pattern next week is not as set in stone as you might think. There's also this from the NWS discussion:

      "SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME."

      Looks about as quiet as a nest of angry hornets to me...

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  24. Can't read a weather chart to save my life, but I have this feeling that Spring won't be coming around here for a long time. 0 degrees in March. Oh sure, there will probably be some nicer days mixed in, but will it catch on? I remember several snowy April days one year sometime in the 90's. How about the storm around Mother's Day years ago. Something like 8" of wet heavy snow. It could be one of those years. Anyone else have that feeling? Snow/cold lovers paradise.

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  25. I want to comment further on Andy's post from not long ago, because it now holds a good deal more clout than it did at that time. He said that a seasonal total below 100 inches was unlikely this season based on probability and snowfall progressions of seasons similar to this one. Today's Euro Weekly run shows below normal temperatures hanging around for a lot of March. Persistent troughs in East Asia and the Bering Sea region support this outlook, as those should eventually translate downstream to North America. Our seasonal snowfall tally so far is 78.6 inches, or 21.4 inches shy of the century mark. It would seem we have at least a month of cold remaining to gain that 21.4 inches, possibly in the form of large storms. Storms happen when cold air clashes with warm subtropical air. March is a month where warm subtropical air begins to feed northward in abundance. Those can (and frequently do) run into substantially cold air masses, which is why March is known for robust storms. We are looking at a large portion of March featuring cold air in place, with occasional interruptions. The only real question pertains to where the core of the cold sets up, but even if it sits too far east and/or south we can still get frequent clippers and lake effect. So the way I see it is this: we will likely reach or surpass 100 inches for the season, either by nickel-and-diming our way there in small pieces via clippers and lake effect or by blasting our way there in medium to large chunks via synoptic storms. Or maybe (probably) a mixture of both, alternating over time.

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  26. CCCC, I agree with you. And I truly believe by the end of next week we will be nearing 90" of snow on the season. We should easily surpass 100" of snow on the season, especially with March slated to be cold and snowy.

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    1. So are you predicting that by the end of next week, we will have received over 12" of snow?

      I think it is important to note that many of the local weather folks have commented that the snow measurements done at the airport have been incorrect, and in many areas we are near or close to 100" -- talk to folks who live in Greece, Webster, etc.

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  27. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 2 weeks. Mark it down!

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  28. Looks like the latest EURO still puts us in the -25C in ten days days. That would put us below 0 again?

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  29. Cold air, yuck. If it does not come with snow it is useless. Sorry.

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    1. Snowdog relax! Without cold air, then there is zero chance of any snow. Plus with cold air then at least whatever snow pack remains will be preserved and make it easy to build upon when we DO get snow.
      Andy

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  30. There will be a Blizzard within the next 3 weeks in the Flower City. Mark it down.

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  31. 12z EURO has nothing for storms the 10 days. Snowdog you may be on to something with your under 100 inches this season I hate to say it.

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    1. What site are you accessing where the 12z Euro shows all 10 days? Because none of the sites I know of are past Day 8 yet.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

      That's a big ol' 995 mb blob of nothing sitting just off the coast.

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  32. I know everyone is disappointed about the warm temperatures right not; but how nice is it to step outside and see/feel the sun.

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    1. Actually only a few select people here are disappointed. The rest of humanity welcomes the warm weather and hopefully spring soon.

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    2. The rest of humanity is too normal for my liking :P

      A few days of mild temps is certainly welcomed by me though.

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  33. That 995mb blob will be feeding the fish well. The jets and negative tilts are not there for a storm to come far enough inland to impact Rochester.

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    1. Models have been too progressive (positive tilted) with troughs all season long. It's not unreasonable to think that may be the case again here. And storms don't need to be inland to impact Rochester.

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  34. Yet another "nothing" at Hour 240 at the NC/VA border. Second straight run showing a large storm in that time frame:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    "But Carol, that's clearly too far south and will not impact Rochester."

    Because as we all know, operational models are totally and completely accurate from 10 days out. Except for when they're not, which is always. The big picture is as good as we can do at the moment.

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  35. High Wind Watch now in effect into Friday afternoon, beginning Thursday evening.

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