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Sunday, February 2

NEXT SNOW STORM WILL BE DECENT BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Don't let the headline depress you, just don't expect this storm to be some sort of mega system that delivers over a foot of snow in the area.  It's a quick mover but will have some decent moisture to work with as the Gulf of Mexico is now more available for these storms being born in the South.  Most reliable data suggests a track somewhere near Pittsburgh by early Wednesday morning then moving across Pennsylvania through the day.  

The NAM is the outsider taking this storm further North into the Southern Tier.  A track such as this would definitely bring in enough warm air for some mixing of sleet at times especially South of I-90.  Those who follow my blogs know that I lean a little conservative because that generally is how most storms play out.  At this point, 6-10" looks most likely but if we get some mixing then those numbers would play out more on the 3-7" side.

I'll will put out our first official forecast numbers probably tomorrow night.  Another more impressive storm will move near or along the coast later next weekend.  That one may be one to watch for big impacts in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states.


36 comments:

  1. Yes bring it on Scott!! I'm ready for more! It would be awesome to have a storm like the "old days" doubt we'll see that though!

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  2. Scott do you think it will start snowing late Tuesday night or during the day Wednesday? Also is it pretty safe to say that those areas north of the thruway will be all snow?

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    1. Overnight into Wednesday morning looks like when the most snow will fall which would make it tough on the AM commute.

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  3. I live north of the thruway :( thank god my husband works 15 minutes from my house

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  4. By his talk of next weekends storm it will not be much of an impact here. It will be a major storm for the East coast. Maybe even a blizzard but probably not for us.

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  5. I think we should get through Tuesday night's - Wednesday's storm before we concern our selves with next weekends POSSIBLE event.

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  6. Wednesday mornings storm will create MANY headaches because it will be a quick hitting significant snowfall centered on morning drive time. I am glad I only travel 5 miles to work in ZERO traffic at 3am when it is snowing.

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  7. If you follow the NWS forecast discussions out of Buffalo you will notice they are back peddling towards a significant snowfall for the area again. It is bound to change again a few more times before Wednesday, depending on who is in the office forecasting and how much the model's run to run change.

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  8. Carol Cheryl CristalFebruary 2, 2014 at 4:25 PM

    I've been rather bullish on this storm from the start, so my guess is 8-14 inches.

    From the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook:

    "THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW…AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN THAT. DEPENDING ON THE CONTINUITY OF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE…THIS STORM MAY PROMPT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES."

    And the updated discussion, which has much better substance than the previous junky one IMO:

    "QPF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS AND VARIATION FROM EACH MODEL RUN LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL KNOW MORE AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE GIVEN ANOTHER COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS."

    If the following storm tracks along or just inland of the coast we are still in the game for big snow out of it, depending on how large the associated snow shield is. Remember the infamous Valentines Day Storm? That one tracked just offshore and Rochester still got hammered, albeit due largely to lake enhancement.

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  9. >tfw signing up for google+ just to have a blog picture

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  10. Latest GFS 18z still a monster on the coast next weekend including us getting smacked.

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  11. I know everyone is probably watching the game ...I could care less personally unless its the bills. I suffered through them losing 4 super bowl's back in the 9o's.

    What are models showing for Tuesday Wednesday now? Any updates?

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  12. Looks like latest NAM has us in 8-10 inch range by Wednesday.

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  13. Why would the NWS put up a Winter storm watch for all but the lake Ontario shore counties. Are they on drugs? They are terrible this year.

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  14. They are not confident that we will see Warning criteria snow North of I-90. All the models I see show us in the 6-10 inch range. That is warning criteria.

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  15. Man, someone is going to get plastered next weekend and it could be us. We will see.

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  16. Someone in the weather office is trying to be a hero and make a bold call on something zero models are showing. In fact, latest NAM gives us half a foot easy. Idk understand but who knows, maybe they see something we don't...

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    1. So...how does the Wednesday morning commute look? Regular snowy or close schools snowy? Obviously it's too early to ask. But let's ask anyway.

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  17. Seems way too early to be issuing watches, even with relative agreement amongst the models. We're still 48 hours out, the threshold is usually 36 hours. Still, I fully expect to see watches issued for the lakeshore counties within the next 24 hours. That weekend system does look like a doozy, and may have a much larger precipitation shield than usual which could spray a large area with substantial snow. The one worry I have is that the confluence in Canada suppresses it too much and it misses to our south, but whether or not that happens is obviously still up for debate.

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  18. Looks to me like both the most recent NAM and GFS runs give us a solid 8-10 inches. Not an expert but that is what I see. This will come fast in a short period of time thus driving will be treacherous. If it starts late Tuesday it will go all day Wednesday until early evening. I think schools will have a tough time opening if it happens.

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  19. As I thought. Winter storm watches are up for all. 6-10. I am hoping we are on the 10" side with some lake enhancement and a little lake effect after that. It will be drier snow the ratios will be higher. It will be a nice mid-sized storm for all.

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  20. Any updates from the over night model runs?

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  21. Not to jump the gun, but it seems local forecasts are really downplaying the weekend storm. Weather Channel has a few snow showers for us and channel 10 says a little light snow. At this point that storm must be passing way south and east of us, but I know it's still early to write it off. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

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    1. I saw RC's forecast on 10 this morning and he said some light snow this weekend, then I flipped to weather channel and they said a few snow showers. Not that I want no snow, I just wondered what was going on.

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  22. I see channel 13 on website has 6 plus inches for us and not sure about others. I know the overnight models did nothing but support 8-10 inches for us. So not sure where you are getting this from Westsider? The 10:30 GFS will be important as will the 1:00 pm Euro run. Wonder what CCC, HP and Weahterguys latest thinking is?

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  23. From the NWS discussion:

    "SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THERE IS A GREATER CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO...OR IF ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE HIGHER."

    Hence I am sticking with my strictly unofficial 8-14 inch call, although the 14 would be restricted to select hilly locations and places near the lake. I've seen numerous instances where southern tier jackpot storms go further north and deliver the biggest snows to the lake plain instead, so it wouldn't be terribly surprising if that happened again here although I'm not fully expecting it.

    After a one run blip to a far more southerly solution, the GFS is back on board with the idea it had for 3 straight runs regarding the weekend system, with an inland primary low tracking up to Ohio before transferring to the coast. Other models have single lows further east. If the coastal component of this storm, however influential it may be, tracks close enough to the coast and develops at the right time, this could be another one of those storms where lake enhancement plays a big role. But with numerous possible outcomes still on the table we can only wait and hope.

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    1. Are you predicting 14 inches for North West or North Weat by Lake Ontario?

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  24. Well - 6 to 10 inches is enough to be significant IMO. Schools will likely close and roads will be hazardous for commuters. I don't know about anyone else, but shoveling 6-10 inches from walks and driveways is definitely significant. Child care for school aged kids is also a challenge for many. Sure - it's not a mega storm and is manageable by our highway crews, but still impacts our day.

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    1. I would agree; especially for those of us who have to get up early to shovel driveways and sidewalks. It helps to know if you have to get up at 3am or 4am to shovel.

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  25. Those of us in the Finger Lakes are predicted to have higher snow fall.

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  26. 12z GFS horrible run moved well south. North of the thruway will be lucky to get 5 inches from this so called storm. NBD as usual weather is not an exact science and predictions are useless.

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    1. Not exactly "well south," it still keeps the 6 inch line right around the Thruway. Chill out.

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  27. Ok. So who wants to vote. How much do you think we will get. (Tuesday/Wednesday) I set up a poll. Click on my name to take you to the poll.

    http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652

    http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652_result

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  28. By the time the storm ends Wednesday night, I would say for the Rochester Metro area, between 10-14 inches, with lake enhancement.

    For the weekend storm, very close, but not close enough.

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  29. Yeah, speaking of the weekend storm...this is now 5 of the past 6 GFS runs showing a big snowfall in Central and Western NY. What's most impressive is that the track it takes on that run should normally keep the snow well east of here. The inland primary getting so close to us before the coastal transfer is the key. Most impressive of all though is that many ensemble means already show a low pressure of 980 mb, which is a strong signal for a big event as they usually aren't so pronounced at this range.

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