Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Tuesday, February 4

UP TO 12" FOR ROCHESTER, 15" SOUTH




Written By:  Scott Hetsko
TUESDAY 3 P.M. UPDATE:

That's it, I'm drinking the kool aide on this one!  A consensus now appears in the data that places Western New York in the most favorable spot for the heaviest snow fall overnight and during the day on Wednesday.  The main reason I upped the numbers a few inches is watching the parent low and it's track over Central Pennsylvania tomorrow.  That storm appears to keep it's strength through much of the early afternoon.  This is important because if that storm weakens quicker than forecast, the vertical velocity I'm counting on goes away and we get about 2-4" LESS than my forecast.

Whatever happens with the totals, the most snow will fall before 1 p.m.  Snow will slowly taper off during the afternoon and evening hours.  Don't think Lake enhancement will be a major player, maybe 1-3" at the tail end.

238 comments:

  1. Blogger Snow Fans + 1 !

    <-- Vote Now (click name)

    http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is the national radar as impressive as I think it is?

      http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

      doesn't look ambiguous at all to me! That looks like a solid snowfall coming our way!

      Quick. Someone smarter say something.

      Delete
  2. The anon who is kind of being a jerk needs to stop. You are posting as others and that is not cool. Keep it real here please. I stick with my 8-12 and thinking more towards the 12. Have you looked at the radar it looks impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Scott not as bullish as he was about us getting the big next week on his weather cast, Darn I was surprised he so bullish so early yesterday. I thought he knew something ha ha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He was not bullish about tonight's storm, which is gonna be a big one now. And he was bullish about this weekend, which now looks like nothing. What's that make him, 0 for 2? lol

      Delete
  4. The GFS does not even show the Sunday/Monday storm at all now.

    ReplyDelete
  5. *cough* flip flop

    ReplyDelete
  6. Starting to snow heavy out my way already

    ReplyDelete
  7. Full tilt blizzard at my house.

    Just kidding lol, only clouds. Those warm advection snows look like they mean business. We're on 3rd and 10 for Sunday's storm.

    ReplyDelete
  8. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 4 weeks! Mark it down!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CCCC we just need a 15 yard pass from Wilson to Baldwin and then we move the sticks. Never out of it ask Snowdog on 2nd thought not him we are always out of it. "Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"?

      Delete
    2. That's the spirit B! Brett Anderson of Accuweather believes we'll see a trend back towards a coastal storm, so there's that too.

      Delete
    3. How do you knwo tho

      Delete
    4. Accuweather is the worst of weather reporting! However...If it gets us hammered with 2 feet of snow, then I will hold out hope...

      Delete
  9. Well can only say that most storms have trended back NW the last 5 days before the storm so once this storm tomorrow gets out I think that storm will become clearer around Thurs/Fri.

    ReplyDelete
  10. When do we eat here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bread and Milk flying off the shelves at Wegmans!

      Delete
  11. Snowdog, where are you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am here! Ready with my shovel!

      Delete
    2. I mean you said it was already snowing at your house ��❄❄⛄

      Delete
    3. Yes, a light coating about 2 inches. Already cleared and ready for more!

      Delete
    4. This is the real Snowdog. Someone is having fun on this blog or making it a joke. Looking forward to this storm. Hopefully it will be an over producer. No-one is talking lake enhancement. I believe there will be some by the lake pushing totals over a ft.

      Delete
  12. Looking forward to plowing some decent snow again. CCC you where right on with this set up, and all your blogs have been spot on. I do think by Thursday we will have a good handle on this weekend. Storm or no storm???

    ReplyDelete
  13. So what is the likelihood the schools close?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Someone earlier said a few had already closed

      Delete
    2. That someone was being an idiot!

      Delete
  14. Should be high if they pay attention to the forecast.

    ReplyDelete
  15. There was a Hilton and a Brockport bus in the ditch in Hamlin last Monday because the visibility was zero. It is okay to put the kids in danger if it is regent test week I guess. No regents tests this week, schools will still be open, MONEY is also more important than SAFTEY now days I guess.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scott even mentioned on his weather cast possible school closings.

      Delete
    2. Huh...Scott might get something right this week.

      Delete
  16. They will probably release school early that way the busses can travel both trips in the height of the snows. Just as long as the schools get paid, I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Negativity pours out of my body, I can't help it..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The blog page copy cat strikes again. Would the real HP please standup. It may have came out negative. I don't like to see school busses off the roads because driving conditions are unfit. There is always another day for the kids to learn.

      Delete
  18. When does the next model come out? What about the radar? How are things looking?

    ReplyDelete
  19. I think the chance of the BIG storm this weekend is pretty much history. A few days ago there was a strong phased storm with a negative tilt in Georgia now all models showing it develop in Ohio. May get a decent storm like this one tomorrow but nothing big.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I'll gladly take back to back 8-12 inch storms.

    ReplyDelete
  21. This is the real Snowdog. Someone is having fun on this blog or making it a joke. Looking forward to this storm. Hopefully it will be an over producer. No-one is talking lake enhancement. I believe there will be some by the lake pushing totals over a ft.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Any updates on current storm? Concerned radar looks like it is going more south and we are going to be in the screw zone?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Current trends on radar are fine. Expect a period of moderate snow to envelop the region overnight. Forecast looks fine at this point.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NWS agrees. Excerpt from an hour ago:

      "REGIONAL RADAR OUT OF OH/PA INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL LEADING BAND OF SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NY/PA BORDER ON SCHEDULE WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 10PM AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TO THE BUFFALO METRO AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ROCHESTER SEEING THE FLAKES BEGINNING TO FLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT AS DEEPER MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA."

      Delete
  24. Scott will there be any periods of heavy snow and if yes for how many hours and what time? Do you think schools should be seriously looking at closing with safety concerns for travel?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Early and mid morning hours for the heaviest snow fall rates, especially South.

      Delete
  25. I think the Sunday/Monday storm may be gone. The models have done this all winter. They show a huge storm as we get closer it fades away. Right now it looks like a light snow event for us. It does not look big anymore for anyone.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Also, anyone looking at the 13th/14th time frame? Looks interesting like it could be something huge. GFS showing heavy precip already.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Is it just me, or does NWS seem to be going back down on their totals for tonight/tomorrow. Seems they've scaled back just a touch. And to think I was as giddy as a choir boy!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Ohh you didn't know?! You better call somebodyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

    It's snowing outside!!

    ReplyDelete
  29. WRF radar simulation:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-18864-1391565252.gif

    ReplyDelete
  30. Dusting to an inch is all I expect tonight...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Said page could not be found what was it CCCC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Strange, link works fine for me. It's just a radar simulation for the storm. Shows basically what the going forecasts are calling for.

      Delete
    2. Comes up for me. Thing of beauty.

      Delete
    3. Is it the same radar you see if you go accuweather.com?

      Delete
  32. Current NAM still has us in 10-12 inch range for the next 28 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  33. If the RGEM is to be believed, then the heaviest snow would occur with the deformation banding tomorrow afternoon as opposed to the warm advection stuff during the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  34. So what does that mean no snow in the morning?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There will still be snow in the morning. All this would mean is that the heavier snow would occur in the afternoon instead of the morning, perhaps to the tune of the first half of the storm underachieving while the second half overachieves. This is only if the RGEM, one of at least a dozen models, verifies.

      Delete
  35. CCCC what does the latest 0z GFS show about potential weekend storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better than the 18z run. Has a little northern stream system that phases with the southern stream, ends up being a decent snowfall in WNY. Sizable hit for New England with a coastal low tracking just east of Cape Cod. Yet another solution to add to the mix.

      Delete
  36. Scott just does not seem real impressed with this storm listening to him.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I think a lot of people here are going to be disappointed by what they see in the morning, and pleasantly surprised by what happens from late morning onwards.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Scott said heaviest between 3-9 am.

    ReplyDelete
  39. KW thinks the heaviest will be occur from late morning into the afternoon, with only a few inches by dawn. Much respect to Scott but I'm gonna side with KW on this one. We'll see what transpires.

    ReplyDelete
  40. 5am, Geneva, ~2", snowing like a light rain

    ReplyDelete
  41. Once again Scott right on this storm which is not much of a storm at all NBD!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Huh? This guy waffled more than a pancake house. Last I checked the headline above reads 12" for Rochester.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous, such a pot stirrer but how about we call you out for all the hype that's not been realize, YOU sir were waaay off. Yesterday you complain what a "monster" this storm is going to be and you felt Scott was WAY off and missed. Based on the data he upped his amounts closer to others in the region although you could tell by listening to him he wasn't sold on that and guess what, his initial predicts were closer than anyone else. It's not over, but come on really...do you ever give credit where it's due. BTW, he's employed and a meteorologist and you, I suspect are living in your mom's basement...oh, an where's the 12-18 you were claiming was such a lock based on the NWS & Weather Channel, the position you take is laughable.

      Delete
  42. Snow shield does not look very impressive at all. Not even an inch on the ground and snowing very lightly. This could be a big old BUST. The snow shield is broken up as well.

    ReplyDelete
  43. BUST BUST BUST!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Sorry Snowdog all local mets giving up on weekend storm. Not that strong and way east.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where are you getting that from? Mets are still talking about it for end of weekend.

      Delete
    2. NO BIG STORM THIS WEEKEND READ MY LIPS! Go to weather channel and channel 10. Al Roker saying all week big storm on coast just said backing off on that.

      Delete
  45. Snow delayed a bit but still coming. Break on radar likely looks bigger than actual because buf radar is down.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Scott way off with timing he said heavy stuff from 5-9 and good thing he backed off big storm this weekend because he was bullish early on this happening. He can not win Rochester's Most Accurate this year can he? KW on 11 news last night said timing later and rough evening commute just like CCCC maybe they are the same person ha ha. Someone should check on Snowdog this storm a bust and his 12-24 inches shot for this weekend. His weather days may be over.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Every single one of you will be eating crow in about 3 hours...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Weatherguy there is like an inch or two out there. Can only make up so much in 3 hours the 7-12 not going to happen the next 6 hours? Not sure how the timing could be so far off with all the weather technology we have in 2014. Radar not that impressive and dry slot huge. Weather is all hype no substance like the early week hype about blizzard this weekend.

      Delete
    2. Even the great CCCC is MIA?

      Delete
    3. Anon 8:10-- Time will tell. The mets all said only up to a couple inches by daybreak. The heavy stuff was supposed to start around 6AM, that has been pushed back to 10AM. Look to the WEST and you'll see lots of snow. Remember the BUF radar is OOS, so the precip free area looks much larger than actual size.

      Delete
    4. Time will tell but a BUST right now. The time for heavy snow keeps getting pushed back first 9 now 10 before you know it never.

      Delete
  48. To Scott,John and Stacy wishing all of you Happy Mets Day! Thanks for all you do.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Boston getting crushed 5 inches in 3 hours that is same storm so what happened with us? I will tell you it missed us and went more SE and e got nothing from first bug wave.

    ReplyDelete
  50. So much for "overachiever" lol. We've been victimized by an undermodeled Canadian high and The Little Dryslot That Could. The deformation zone to our west should help us catch up to the forecast, but I'd be surprised if anyone in the viewing area surpassed a foot. I know I had low expectations for what we would see in the morning, but I definitely didn't anticipate waking up to overcast...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha ha plus weekend storm shot. the Real Snowdog is in deep depression right now.

      Delete
  51. Not sure we are going to catch up. Rich Caniglia now seems like he is trying to convince himself the weather is going to get much worse. Remember my 4 inches prediction yesterday go back and find it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We can't because you don't use a name. Use a name if you really want credit or ridicule for the things you say...

      Delete
    2. The airport total so far is probably pretty close to 2 inches so far. We'll easily surpass an additional 2 inches, so although I can't see anyone surpassing a foot I still believe 8-10 for most is a good bet. The deformation zone is producing thundersnow in the Toledo area right now. We probably won't hear any rumbles in our neck of the woods, but the fact that there's thundersnow in the deformation zone shows that it could pack quite a punch when it gets here.

      Delete
    3. "The airport total so far is probably pretty close to 2 inches so far."
      ".......................so far...........................close to 2 inches so far."

      Remember kids, a full 8 hours of sleep is the best precursor to a good day.

      Delete
    4. What time is it getting here CCCC midnight? Your math is fuzzy? 2 plus 2 is 4 not 8-10?

      Delete
    5. The jist is that I'm expecting a lot more that 2 additional inches based on how vigorous the deformation zone is.

      Delete
  52. I will give them that they forcasted 2-5" by "morning". I had just under 2" at 7am in Perinton. However, also forecasted heaviest snow during morning commute and that was a bust. But the commute was pretty slow, however did not see any accidents 490 westbound from Bushnells Basin to Mt Read which was a bonus.

    ReplyDelete
  53. follow wxrisk.com for accurate anti hype forecasting. His 3-6" / 8"-12" line cuts right through Monroe County. We'll see. And he is located in VA I think, somewhere in mid-atlantic. Binghamton seems to be right on as well as NWS Binghamton. They got a litte over 7" of snow in 2.5 hrs overnight, so they are already in teh 8-12" range.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few problems here:

      1) He had 3-6 jumping to 8-12 in the adjacent zone. Where did those mysterious 2 inches between 6 and 8 disappear to?
      2) That site is run by a man named Dave Tolleris. He is a nasty little ape who berates anyone who doesn't agree with his forecasts, which are frequently wrong in some big way. I remember him predicting that the early January storm would stay below the Mason Dixon line, and then calling detractors "idiots" and "morons" on Facebook.

      There's always a slight chance his forecast for this storm ends up verifying, sans the immediate jump from 6 inches to 8. But the general theme is this: stay far, far away from wxrisk.com.

      Delete
    2. I have to completely dissagree with some of what you say. After 15 years of searching for what I consider the mostly accurate weather source, I have settled with wxrisk and couldn't be more pleased. I am able to operate my business (weather related) successfully around his forecasting. He lets us know about things way ahead of anyone else and completely avoids the hype which I appreciate.

      In regards to the mysterious 2", I can see that being an issue for simple minded people (not saying you) that expect an exact amount in THEIR OWN front yard from forecasters. Me however, a general range works for, but more important I like intensity. 5" over a few hours much different in my world than 5" over 36 hrs.

      And then there is DT. While I do not agree with the way he treats or talks@ people, thats not what I am there for. He doesn't make it easy for people to ask questions, or question his statements, but he also does have a lot as you described above writing really dumb stuff on his page. If it were me, I would just ignore them, but unfortunately DT does not.

      However he clearly eats & breaths east coast weather and I know I can get regular updates if I want at my finger tips and learn at the same time by just reading his posts and I like how he illustrates how he comes to his conclusions.

      Your general theme may be to stay away from wxrisk, but he has 78,000 +/- followers just on facebook. Doesn't even include people going to his website or paying for his service. I followed before he had facebook.

      Delete
    3. Anon 9:39 what is DT saying about the east coast this weekend?

      Delete
    4. saying its not going to be a bid deal at all.

      Delete
  54. 9:30 not a flake in Rochester. Look at the radar all going over top and below us. A BUST Weatherguy! Eating eggs not crow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's currently snowing in Greece.

      Delete
  55. Starting to pick up I have flurry on the SE side of Monroe county.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the interactive radar seem to indicate the heaviest snow (darker blue) is moving west and north of us?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Its snowing pretty steadily here in Ontario

    ReplyDelete
  58. Yes Sal first batch missed us SE and 2nd batch will NW. However RC now says heavy stuff now coming between 10 and 11 until 3. Keep waiting it is coming 8 inches in 4 hours right.

    ReplyDelete
  59. The radar is quite evidently beginning to fill back in. This is from the most recent Warning update:

    "* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TODAY AND 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS EVENING PRODUCING STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY."

    I anticipate several hours of 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates, perhaps briefly flirting with 2 inches per hour, beginning within the next few hours and lasting until late afternoon before beginning to taper. This will be the part of the storm that delivers the pleasant surprise, mostly to those who aren't expecting much more.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Snow rate picking up in Fairport at 10AM. KBUF radar still down.
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  61. The snow in Greece is very round right now, almost looks like hail (and you can hear it hitting the roof), yet it's still soft squishy snow.. very odd!

    ReplyDelete
  62. CCCC now next few hours ha ha what is your latest take on Sunday storm gone?

    ReplyDelete
  63. From the updated discussion:

    "LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS…NOTE KBUF RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE…AND SURFACE OBS LATE THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS IS @SSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND SSEO ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THIS WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 15-19Z AND CENTRAL NEW YORK 18-21Z. WHILE WE ONLY SAW 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE FRONT END OF THE STORM THIS MORNING…BETTER DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CROSSING OUR REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 18:1 SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR CENTERED AROUND NOONTIME."

    ReplyDelete
  64. Okay then will still be waiting to eat that crow Weatherguy promised.

    ReplyDelete
  65. RC on 10 just updated on TV he looked beat up and not confident the city is going to get heavy snow. He looked down and knows his forecast was a bust.

    ReplyDelete
  66. This is just awful. Sorry but Scott was dead wrong on this one. How is he Roc most accurate? KW was much more accurate with this one...oh well...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think he'll be most acc this year. He's been way out in left field lately.

      Delete
    2. He went from 5-9, to 7-12, and we get 2 inches!! Should not have drank the Koolaid Scott!

      Delete
    3. KW called this one exactly how its played out! KW is the new ROC MOST ACCURATE!

      Delete
    4. Everyone needs to keep in mind that the 5-10, 7-12 or 8-12 inches is the TOTAL winter storm totals; not the totals for overnight or a couple of hours.

      The only problem I had with this storm is that all of the local weather folks stated that the heaviest snow would occur beteen 6am and 9am -- morning communte. For those of us who got up early, to make sure we were to work on time -- it was frustrating to plan for double or triple communte time to only have it be an additional 10-15 minutes. However, the evening communte might be something different. Won't be the first itme a 20-30 drive home takes 2 to 2-1/2 hours.

      Delete
  67. Storm is over folks. Thanks for comin!

    ReplyDelete
  68. Check out some of the Thruway webcams to our west, especially just south of Buffalo:

    http://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/index.html

    Make sure the option under Traffic Cameras is selected.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Snowdog is in distress and no 12-24 inch historic storm this weekend like he predicted. Maybe you can get a snow making machine in your back yard like KW has ha ha. Weatherguy has conceded and is eating his own crow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If only he had said 4 or 5 hours instead of 3...

      Delete
    2. Throwing in the towel on this one. It's over folks..

      Delete
    3. I have not given up hope on this weekend...yet. Still think the system moves inland to give us a solid foot or more. Far too early to know still.

      Delete
    4. Somebody hasn't seen the Thruway webcams...

      Delete
  70. Snowdog have you seen the 12zGFS just out? Start warming up your arm and get the towel because nothing big there! I think Weatherguy might be being sarcastic just his way of saying like the mets that they did not mess this storm prediction up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can't go just on the 12z run. Just wait...I see things changing come Friday..

      Delete
    2. No sarcasm here unfortunately. Just don't see us making up these totals that were forecasted. I don't see anything more than 2-4". I'll take a double portion of my own crow on this one.

      Delete
  71. Kathy Lee just said up to 3 feet in some places in the NE this weekend, and 3 inches in other places. Storm is there, and someone is gonna get socked. Will it be us????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Regis and Kelly mentioned something similar. I can hardly believe the amount of hype being generated by a storm that is largely absent on the models. Any experts still clinging to the big storm idea had better know what they're doing, lest they further tarnish the already stained reputation that meteorology has.

      Delete
  72. Snow is beginning to pick up here in Henrietta. Deformation zone is developing and moving towards Rochester. Weatherguy is going to regret eating that crow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Look at the radar though, only gonna get a couple inches at best from this.

      Delete
    2. Don't trust any radar composites right now, KBUF radar is broken. Again, go look at the Thruway webcams west of here.

      Delete
    3. Really Weatherguy thought it was going to snow hard for next 5 hours? Not being wise that is what all mets said 11 to 5? You are now saying radar not showing much?

      Delete
    4. No the snow is there, but its rapidly moving through our area. Will be done soon, and just don't see it amounting to nothing more than a burst of a couple inches.

      Delete
    5. If by "done soon" you mean "beginning to taper by late afternoon" then yes I agree.

      Delete
  73. Hmmm....State of Emergency for the entire state just issued. Not getting this one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's because the NYC area ran out of salt. I wish I was kidding.

      Delete
    2. For the entire state??? Lmao....Even the majority of WNY who got 3-4 inches??? I know places in the southern tier who were projected 10-15" and came away with 3"
      This storm was nothing short of a joke!

      Delete
  74. When was the last REALLY big snowstorm to hit Rochester? The double blizzard of 99? Or the Valentines storm? I've lived here 17 years now, and I'm just curious.

    Avon: 2-3" of granular snow overnight. Then clear this morning. Picking up now in Henrietta, but not a STORM, really. I can't help going to the window every minute or so, though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The one I remember the most is March 93 Blizzard. The next most memorable were the back to back ~20" storms in spring of 99/00 (I think)... sorry my memory is weak on some of those events right now. Since then nothing noteworthy other than the routine "6-12" events.
      Andy

      Delete
    2. Never see one like the March 93 one. Called the Superstorm and it is once in a lifetime storm.

      Delete
  75. Steady light snow coming down in Greece (Mt.Read/Latta area). So far seems like a typical winters day. We'll see what the afternoon brings.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Reading unconfirmed reports of thundersnow in the Buffalo area.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was just gonna post this! There is thunder snow here in Pavilion! It is incredible!!

      Delete
    2. Yes according to my lightning strike data app there were two bolts in the area of the Thruway just east of BUF around 1120.

      Andy

      Delete
    3. We live in Batavia and saw lighting just 15 min ago

      Delete
  77. Gov declares State of Emergency due to poor conditions for I-84/Hudson Valley -- traffic/vehicle travel is banned.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Snow is coming down pretty heavily in Henrietta now.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Moderate snow in Fairport now.
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  80. Complete whiteout here in Caledonia. About 2"/hr coming down

    ReplyDelete
  81. I-90 EB closed, yikes.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Have about 9 inches in my front yard! Yippeeeeee! Keep it comin!!

    ReplyDelete
  83. Snowing hard in Pittsford!

    ReplyDelete
  84. Is the clearing on the radar, around jamestown/dunkirk, suppose to backfill at all?

    ReplyDelete
  85. Moderate snow Mt Read/Lyell area now

    ReplyDelete
  86. I use the intellicast current radar loop and seems to be showing this storm fine.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Looks to be ending unfortunately within the next hour or so..

    ReplyDelete
  88. Really going to stop snowing in an hour?

    ReplyDelete
  89. The end is near. South of us is clear as the radar not showing much. No way the Southern Tier gets over a ft.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Yeah I don't like the way the radar looks, but do wonder with the CCW rotation, if whats NNE of Lake Erie isn't going to rotate in and fill in to our west.
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  91. Mets all say moderate snow until at least 4:00 pm?

    ReplyDelete
  92. John lull coming for an hour or so then that big blob over lakes fills back in for us.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Alright this one is over now we can all move on to the next one which is Sunday according to Snowdog. He predicts a historic storm with Rochester getting 12-24 inches of snow. Good luck with that since no models are currently supporting that but hey you never know ( I heard that some where else before?).

    ReplyDelete
  94. Snow is lessening here in Henrietta. Still snowing, but not whoopee-doo.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Any snow totals as of right now?

    ReplyDelete
  96. RC 10: Very heavy snow will diminsh in the next hour or two to more moderate snow the rest of the afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Will stop for an hour or so but fill back in west to east if you look at local radar.

    ReplyDelete
  98. <1/8 mile vis here in FPT at times. Still snowing pretty hard. Measured between 4"-5" so far. As I suggested in my post at 12:20 it looks like the CCW rotation over lake Erie is filling in to our West.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  99. Snowing very hard in Hilton. Winds starting to come out of the North. Lake Ontario helping a little too. I think the big winners will be north of the thruway and 104.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Not too often you get dryslotted twice in one storm -_-

    Luckily there is additional deformation banding off to our west. Have a little over 4 inches so far.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Snowdog sorry to report it is pretty official for Sunday's storm. The 12z EURO just came out and takes it OTS on Sunday. This storms is for the fishes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4th and 8, the punt team is out on the field...

      I'm going to start focusing on the V-Day potential after this one is over.

      Delete
  102. Piddley-diddley snow here in Henrietta now. Almost clear. Adrenaline rush is over.

    ReplyDelete
  103. For anyone concerned about the storm being completely over...

    http://www.weather.com/weather/map/classic/14623?mapregion=us_roc_closeradar_plus_usen&showanimation=yes

    ...not even close

    ReplyDelete
  104. KW: Snow will continue, varying in intensity, into this evening with several more inches.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Still getting hammered in Greece... must be the lake kicking in! I feel sorry for those that don't typically get the lake help

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree! Must be that lake enhancement here in Greece. As soon as we snow blow the driveway, the plow comes by! LOL

      Delete
  106. Still at 4" in Henrietta. Snow is floating around.

    Very interesting how the quality/shape of the snowflakes has changed.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Disappointed that the Sunday storm is gone. many just 2 days ago were talking like it was a given and that it was going to be historic on the east coast. We do not get many chances for that to happen. The models earlier did show that too. Well time to move on and I am right there Snowdog feeling disappointed with you.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Well other than KW they can say what they want but this mess certainly did not develop the way they thought it would. Scott and 13 said morning would be a disaster with tapering quickly after noon or so. The actual disaster developed almost exactly opposite. Looks like we will get clobbered all night now thanks to that dam lake. As I recall because storm was moving so "rapidly" prediction was for LES to be "no big deal"--well it is a very big deal and will far exceed what the storm itself dropped. That NE wind is death.
    BTW looks like they will hit their projected totals--most likely the upper ends, again mostly due to that lake--the storm itself really didn't seem all that bad.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The area of moderate/heavy snow to our west is part of the storm itself. Pure lake effect won't set in until after sunset, and it shouldn't be too bad.

      Delete
    2. What does you mean by "shouldn't be too bad"?

      Delete
    3. Oh another 8" or so-- not too bad. Nothing to worry about as long as you don't have to do anything.

      Delete
    4. All the meteorologists should eat crow on this one. They all taunt the best models, the best dopplers, and each tries to outdo the other with their on-air animations. IMO, the quantity of snow is less important than the timing of the snowfall. You should see some of the kids who I just saw walking home in this garbage b/c school wasn't cancelled b/c of lack of forewarning last night.



      Delete
    5. Not heard that we are expecting another 8" overnight. Anyone hear this?

      Delete
    6. While the final burst of snow will cause problems, it is part of the storm itself and thus not lake effect. It may be lake ENHANCED, but pure lake effect won't set in until much later. The short fetch across the lake should serve to limit the intensity of the snow to lighter rates.

      I was out walking around when the snow was much heavier. It was tough going but by my judgement not bad enough to cancel school. This was during a time when no one should've been on their way to or from school anyway.

      Delete
  109. Always find it amazing how days leaving up to the storm, everyone is hoping and praying for large amount of snow, etc. I'm not seeing many so excited, can't wait to drive home in this, etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey, I'm still loving this! Helps that I don't have to drive anywhere though ;)

      Delete
    2. Driving in snow only sucks if you view it as a task instead of an adventure. A risky adventure where damage and injury could occur, but an adventure nonetheless :)

      Delete
    3. The only people who get all giddy are the select few on this blog and the meteorologists. The rest of us aren't too excited when we have to get out in this.

      Delete
    4. Yup--exactly. 98% hate this.

      Delete
    5. And in the end, it does not make a difference. Whether it's 98%, 9.8% or 506%, it does not make one lick of difference. Mother nature will do as she pleases regardless of public opinion. I respect you opinion but this moaning and groaning adds nothing of substance and sullies the blog atmosphere (pun intended). I mean, no one goes to a stamp collector's forum and groans about how most people don't like collecting stamps, right? That's because the preferences of stamp collectors don't intrude upon anyone's lives. Our preferences don't either, it's the weather that does. Anyone can wish for whatever all they want, it does not make a difference. They can wish for 400 degree highs all summer for all I care, it's just a harmless preference.

      Delete
    6. For the record, I'm referring to the moaning and groaning about peoples' personal preferences, not moaning and groaning about the weather. Just to clarify.

      Delete
  110. The snow has really picked up again in Greece. The flakes were very fine earlier, but now they are much larger. Winds out of the north, north-east.

    ReplyDelete
  111. The Real WeatherguyFebruary 5, 2014 at 4:04 PM

    So whoever was posting as Weatherguy today, smh... I'm going to be taking a break form this blog for awhile, trolls are ruining it for everyone. Enjoy the snow everyone!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Weatherguy I hate when that is happening someone was doing it to Snowdog yesterday too. Do not let that run you from the blog. You have great knowledge and we want you on the blog. Still hope to have several storms left this winter. Including Sunday! Snowdog and I are not ready to give up on that one yet.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Well the radar shows no snow over/close to Fairport, yet its still snowing at a moderate pace.

    And yes "real weatherguy" the trolls are ruining the board.

    ReplyDelete
  114. To all of those who cried bust and all the whining. ...it didn't look like a bust when I pulled in driveway this afternoon! Plenty of snow and is still coming down hard. Its easy to sit back and criticize during/ after a storm. Shut your faces and enjoy the snow. Cry cry cry like little babies. So tired of it. To those of you posting meaningful comments etc thank you. And to those posting as others go back to middle school. There I said my peace

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. piece
      I hope you are at peace now.

      Delete

Blog Archive