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Thursday, March 13

STORM BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED



Written By:  Scott Hetsko

We were sweating it out a little bit in the mid day hours but once the colder air moved in later in the day, we knew we'd hit our numbers.  Let's hope it's the icing on the cake from the most consistent Winter around here in a few decades.

A special thanks to all the snow plow drivers, private and government who did an awesome job getting the roads back in shape today.  I'm impressed!

90 comments:

  1. Scott really you say "Icing" on the cake? the way this winter has gone hope we do not get a historic ice storm in April? You do remember April 3rd, 2003? I believe that was the date. Hope not but something tells me this winter has one more historic surprise.

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  2. Webster on the lake got closer to 20 inches!

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  3. Notice how powerful the March sun is compared to Dec. Once I got the driveway down to a half inch or so, the sun blasted the rest today even though it was in the teens all day.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/index.html
    Angle of sun at noon on Dec 27 degrees or so.
    Angle of sun at noon today 47 degrees or so.

    Sin(47)/Sin(27) = 1.61.

    The sun is about 61% stronger than the start of winter and it showed today.

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    1. Check that. Forgot to use Rochester Latitude of 43.2 degrees.
      That gives us a peak of 23.4 degrees on Dec 21 and 44.0 degrees on Dec 13 at local solar noon.

      Sin(44)/Sin(23.4)=1.75 or 75% more solar energy per square (unit of your choice).

      Message is the same. Go Spring!

      While we're at it. The sun will peak at 70.2 degrees at the summer solstice.
      Sin(70.2)=0.941
      Sin(44.0)=0.695
      Sin(23.4)=0.371

      So on summer solstice we get 2.53 times or 153% more energy/area than winter solstice.
      That's 1.35 times or 35% more energy(per area) than we get today.
      Of course lengthening days will also help increase the amount of actual energy received.

      I'm blathering, but what I'm trying to say is that from a incidence perspective we are already closer to summer than winter.

      #Hope
      #SilverLining
      #WhatAmIDoing
      #RememberWhenThisWasPound
      #IAlreadyHateMyselfForUsingAHashtag

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  4. Second Scott appause for the Snow Plow Operators. What an AWESOME job each did. I know several who were up for 24+ hours straight. Now lets head into Spring.

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  5. Wow looks like could a nice snow storm to our south next Monday. Thank you HP for the suppression keeping this south hope that continues we do not want a NW trend.

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    1. Yes, we want a NW trend, and to have Blizzard 2 come our way. We need to make sure we get well over 100 inches of snow.

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  6. Lots of ups and downs on the way temperature-wise. This winter is not going to die without a fight. I'm rooting for spring to win by knockout at this point. Real spring with warmth and sun, not muddy April fake spring with highs in the 40s every day. Eventually it'll come out on top but it remains to be seen how long it will take until that happens. Otherwise I've come to the realization that we no longer have anything to gain from this winter except a place in the top 10 snowiest, and that would take an impossibly high amount of snow to achieve given how late we are in the season. We've had plenty of significant storms, more than enough cold and a big storm with true blizzard conditions. If you enjoy winter you can't really ask for much else at this point.

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  7. The NAM brings that storm very close to us on Monday and Tuesday.

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    1. Hope that it does head NW; we need to break some snow records and beat Syracuse in the snow belt derby. Next Thursday looks like it could bring some interesting weather our way.

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  8. Anon 5:40 the NAM is horrible this late out and always has a NW bias even with that still far from us thank God. We are safe just start to get ready for spring.

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  9. There will be Blizzard II in the Flower City in the next 4 days. You doubted me for Blizzard 1. Mark it Down!!!!!!!!

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    1. This is the troll imposter!!! I am the original blizzard predictor stay away from my credit and there will not be a Blizzard II I have sequels.

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  10. I hope there isn't blizzard 2, but if we did have it, then we'd likely exceed my seasonal target range that I predicted on this blog back in mid December of 110"-120". Getting to 110" should not be an issue.

    But at this point this snow lover is hoping for spring soon, but unfortunately I don't think it will make an appearance for a while. I also think lake ice will keep our spring cool and it's going to be a muddy one--- I hope I'm wrong about that but I think that is reality.

    Also, I wonder where "we won't get 100" "this hasn't been a snowy winter" Snowdog has been? I certainly hope he's okay.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Hoping for more snow....

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  11. Dear Winter,

    No more surprises. Thanks.

    Signed,
    Broken shovel in Webster

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  12. Thanks, Channel 8, for not coming up with some dumb name for this storm, like another channel with its MARCH FURY headline.

    Honestly, this was good old snow storm. Not a big deal. Yes it snowed a lot, but still it was not a crippling blizzard.

    I was left wondering - Ou sont les neiges d'antan?

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  13. As I predicted the NAM corrected and went south. Perfect no more storms for WNY!

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  14. Quad-C -- what are you seeing about a possible winter storm on Monday/Tuesday and Thursday of next week?

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  15. Should it really be a surprise that the NAM went way NW then corrected SE the very next run? There's always the chance of a last minute trend, but don't count on the NAM to lead such a charge. The storm early next week will likely remain well south of here. The one for next Thursday might have a better chance, but as of now much of the guidance depicts it tracking far enough NW to give us primarily rain. A strongly negative PNA during that time frame does favor such a track, so that's where I'm leaning at the moment. I don't believe we are completely out of the woods regarding snow however, as the EPO shows signs of going negative again later in the month while the MJO hooks back towards Phase 8. CPC also has the below normal temp probability anomalies strengthening by then. By that point it would take a lot to give us anything substantial, but I wouldn't rule out a few more moderate snowfalls before old man winter's icy tentacles finally wither away.

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    1. Do you think Spring will ever get here? I remember last year mowing my yard in early April. This winter is starting to wear on my nerves.

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    2. Spring will arrive simply by virtue of steadily rising average temps. Unfortunately it'll be like pulling teeth to get there.

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  16. I am so glad the one Sunday/Monday is well south of us. Can not take another big snow fall this winter.

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    1. Sorry to tell you, but we will get getting snow next week; several days matter of fact. Winter NOT over yet. 100+ inches will well within reach and will be surpasses. Winter Storm loves unite.

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    2. Not sure Aon where you are seeing we are getting snow next week and several days worth?

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  17. Sorry folks there will be a HIS within the Flower City within the next 4 weeks. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. So do you mean there will be a Japanese Travel Agency in the Flower City within the next 4 weeks? What is your definition of HIS?

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  18. Historic Ice Storm that is why I said sorry.

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    1. So you are predicting an Ice Storm for the week of April 7th. Interesting.

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    2. Within the next 4 weeks not the week of April 7th?

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  19. Where is Snow Dog? Just wondering what his final assessment is of this winter?

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  20. The blog is dead long live quiet weather!

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  21. Anyone know when true, long lasting spring weather will arrive

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    Replies
    1. Usually. Late April. Imo

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  22. I don't think this winter is ever going to end by the looks of it...

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  23. Why do you say that Weatherguy what are models showing?

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  24. I saw 40's by mid week I think...is this short lived? Today definitely sucks. Sunny and really windy/cold. Two things that don't mix. Ready to be outside!

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  25. Spring is coming models showing nothing but warmer weather coming in the long range. Can not wait until we walk outside and it is 60 to 70 out.

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  26. I see after the warm up NE the week we're headed for below average for at least a few days starting next Saturday or Sunday.


    Time will tell.

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  27. There will a HIS within the next 4 weeks in the Flower City (sorry). Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  28. Ugh.. at least 2 more weeks of cold.

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  29. Snow to our south; why are we always the witness. Would have moved to have seen another 8-12 inches of snow. Maybe with the weather turning colder towards the end of the week, we can see more snow.

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    1. CCCC what is your future outlook prediction are we going to get to spring soon?

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  30. Get over it spring bus Thursday time for it to be nice out.

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    1. Dion't count on it yet -- There will be a historic ice storm wihtin the next 4 weeks in the Flower City. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!

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    2. Troller above

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  31. With the exception of a brief warm up to average & slightly above average temps this week, it appears we are back below normal temps for a while. I just looked at the 15, 30 & 90 day outlook maps on Accuweather (which I usually take with a grain of salt), and unfortunately it shows us mostly below normal temps.

    I'd be happy if someone could show something with more hope for warmth coming in the next 4 -6 weeks.

    Andy (still targeting 110" snow for this winter)

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  32. Another shot of the PV after this week cold as heck for March again next week unreal. The only good thing it is will keep any snow storm potential shunted to our south because of the blocking. This cold is getting ridiculous!

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    1. That's only if the PV remains in a position to suppress the storm track. If it shifts enough at any point it'll be a whole different ballgame.

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  33. We are indeed entrenched in below normal temps for the foreseeable future. The various ensemble means show zero signs of any extended mild stretch through the end of the month, and the most recent Euro weekly also indicates a below normal temperature regime lasting into the first part of April. All of this despite the NAO and AO being positive while the PNA dips negative. I strongly suspect the negative EPO is to blame, along with possibly the MJO. Absolutely amazing that we've had such a consistently cold winter with the AO being all over the place and the NAO being largely positive. In fact, the NAO has actually been positive every single day since about January 20th. That fact alone might be more astounding than the consistency of the winter pattern. The only saving grace, as previously mentioned, is the fact that daily average temps are steadily increasing.

    Super duper long range tidbit: we may be in for a cooler than normal summer and below normal tropical activity with an El Nino regime strongly favored to set up by the middle of spring and last through much of fall, possibly into the following winter as well. A weak El Nino would generally favor a snowier than normal winter while a strong El Nino would favor below normal snow and milder temps. Moderate El Ninos are a bit of a tossup. I would think that a strong El Nino isn't particularly favored given that we are currently in the cold phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) but we'll see what transpires. We've already seen one such El Nino in this regime, back in the 2009-2010 winter season. And this is obviously pending the outcomes of such variables as the NAO, PNA, EPO etc that can't be reliably predicted more than a few weeks in advance. I really doubt anyone wants to think about next winter at this point anyway given that the vast majority of us are sick of this one. Oh well, at least there is March Madness to get us through the pain...

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    1. Are you saying that we might have a year without summer, like a few years back?

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    2. I think it's been more than a few years back.

      I remember two that stood out in the last 21 years. Summer of 1993 & 2004 where average summer temps were well below normal. The winters that preceded those years were also very snowy. Sounds ominously familiar?

      Andy

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    3. I can't speak for how strong the cool anomalies might be, if any occur at all. Just that El Nino climatology favors below normal temps during summer. It may still turn out decidedly "summer-like" despite having below normal temps on the whole. The summer of 2009 was rare in its persistence of cool temps, and was associated with a highly unusual west based strong El Nino. A typical strong El Nino is associated with very weak easterly trade winds, so a strong El Nino is typically east based as there is no driving force to keep the warm temp anomalies from pooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which they will naturally tend to do. When I say "west based" or "east based" I'm referring to the positioning of the strongest oceanic temp anomalies relative to the critical Nino 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is located approximately between longitude 155W and 120W. So an east based El Nino sees the highest temp anomalies to the east of the Nino 3.4 region, while a west based one sees those anomalies west of Nino 3.4. And it just so happens that strong east based El Ninos tend to establish mild patterns during the winter. What we also get with an El Nino is a robust subtropical jet stream, which translates to bigger storms with more precipitation. This is why the Mid Atlantic region saw so many monster storms during the 2009-2010 winter, it was a rare combination of persistent cold and a hyperactive El Nino driven subtropical jet. What we also tend to see during El Nino is strong westerly winds over the tropical Atlantic, which creates a shearing environment hostile to tropical activity.

      It's going to be very interesting to follow the progression of the developing ENSO episode over the next several months, as even a typical strong El Nino can have interesting implications here. Research the winter of 1998-1999 to see what I mean.

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    4. I should actually make a slight correction here: the important temp anomalies aren't really east or west of Nino 3.4, but rather in the eastern or western portion of said region.

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    5. For those who love snowy, cold winters -- we can only hope.

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  34. CCCC no possible storms in the immediate future I hope?

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    1. None that are readily apparent, although we could easily see one or two more before we can close the book for good.

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  35. Don't count Winter over with just yet. Still chance for more snow to fall. Want to hit that 110+ inches mark.

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  36. From Don Paul:

    "...temperatures will be running Much Below Average next week, not “a little.” Like 20s, not upper 30s or low 40s."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNTxr2NJHa0

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  37. Wow holy crap, so it turns out I completely misread NOAA's ENSO history chart. 1998-1999 was NOT an El Nino winter, so don't use it as an example of interesting happenings during strong El Ninos. I was looking at the season before it by mistake, which was one of the strongest El Ninos on record yet still quite snowy in our region. Sorry about that...

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  38. Going to be ridiculously cold next week for the week of March 24th.

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  39. I was all about that being our last snowstorm, but that doesn't seem likely as cold air looks to stick around for a while. So I guess I'm just going to start rooting for snow again. This Saturday is looking interesting as models have been hinting at a fairly vigorous LP taking a similar track to our last storm, although not nearly as strong/moisture laden.

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    1. And folks on this blog jumped all over me when I said earlier that Winter was not over with, and don't be surprised if we get more snow and come close to the 110+ inches. Yes that would be you Anon 8:05am.

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  40. I do not see that Weatherguy on the models?

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    1. It's a little clipper-looking deal that rolls through the lower Great Lakes about 5 days from now. You can see it pretty clearly on every major model at Hour 120. Given how close by the track is and the time of year it would probably be a rain to snow scenario if it impacted us at all.

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  41. Ah screw it, I also choose to root for snow once again. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. And we aren't about to beat the cold pattern anytime soon. I have to wonder what sorts of goodies may be brought upon us with such intense cold hanging around so late in the season. Unfortunately suppression may rule the roost through a lot of next week, so if the weekend system doesn't deliver we'll have to wait awhile for anything decent.

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  42. This is just absolutely astounding:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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    1. CCCC what do these temps show for our area?

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    2. Those maps only show the probability for a certain temp anomaly. Our region is placed in a 90 percent probability for below normal temps for the 6-10 day period, which is extremely rare for a forecaster drawn map.

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  43. Astounding is not the word I would use to describe that, but I can't post that word on here.

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  44. OK cccc, those temperature maps look similar to what I saw on AccuWeather- abysmal for a good portion of the country for at least 30 days.

    Unfortunately we have a chance of hitting the upper end of my snow target which was 120". I say the low end of my target, 110", is a slam dunk.

    Andy

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  45. If no suppression watch out for a BIG snowstorm coming up the coast.

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  46. No way any storms get up the coast with the PV in place next week. Just have to deal with the crazy March cold next week and that is enough. Temps will be 20/30 degrees below normal for March unreal.

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    1. If the PV yields enough we could see some sort of Miller B type setup.

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  47. Right now it looks according to consistent EURO runs that we are in the -15 to-20C range which would put us 5 to 10 degrees. That does not look like the PV yielding plus 2 storms have been well south when we have had a strong PV so Miller B type set-up looks extremely remote.

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    1. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014031800&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014031800&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=192

      You were saying?

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  48. So CCCC you are predicting a Miller B forming next week? Lets go on record now!

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    1. I am predicting no such thing as of now, just indicating that it's one of several possibilities.

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    2. I apologize for not throwing a blind dart...

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    3. Please explain what's a Miller B and how would it impact us?
      Thanks

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    4. Miller B hugs the coast line and are good for us and NE. Miller A is farther off the coast and has little impact on us generally. Do not worry we will get neither until next winter at the earliest.

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    5. Incorrect.

      Miller A type storms are single low pressure systems that originate in the southeastern US or in the Gulf of Mexico, and move NE along or off the coast. Sometimes they can move due north or even retrograde towards the NW. The 1993 Superstorm and the April Nor'easter of 2007 were Miller A storms, the latter of which took a retrograding track. Miller B type storms consist of inland lows that move up into the lower Midwest or the Ohio Valley before weakening and redeveloping near the coast due to a blocking high pressure system to the north. They are more complex than Miller A storms because they consist of multiple low pressure centers. The Blizzard of 1996 and the March Nor'easter of 1960 were Miller B storms. Miller A systems tend to favor narrower swaths near coastal areas while Miller B systems usually affect a much larger area. The placement of that area depends on where the blocking high is and how strong it is, but from what I've seen our region tends to do better with Miller B systems.

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  49. So should I keep snow tires on or not? Cold but dry I can run all seasons. If you guys think we have a chance at some accumulating snow sometime in the near future I will keep them on.

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  50. My Uncle always said to me when I was growing up, that when you see your first Robin after a cold Winter, Spring is just around the corner. I saw my first Robin yesterday, and I strongly believe the worst of Winter is over! Sure, we can still get a few inches here or there, but the big snows and bitterly cold are winding down. How do I know this you ask?
    Because a Robin told me :)

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    1. I like the Robin story, but it conflicts with technology that says we're gonna have mostly below normal temps for at least the next 15 days or so.
      I hope the Robin is right :)

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