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Monday, April 7

WINDY & RAINY THROUGH TONIGHT

Written by John DiPasquale:

Rain moves in from south to north this afternoon with a good 1" to 1.5" possible near & north of the Thruway with closer to a half to three quarters of an inch south this afternoon through tonight.  Temperatures will dip back out of the 50s & into the 40 to 45 degree range as the rain moves in & cools the air.  Tonight temps will basically hold steady, & Tuesday we should be up near 50, before slipping back a little during the afternoon with a scattering of rain showers possibly mixing with a little snow &/or sleet during the afternoon, especially over the hills.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning there may be a few snow showers & flurries with a reinforcing shot of colder air, setting us up for a blustery Wednesday with highs only in the low 40s.

We will recover nicely Thursday thanks to a warm front passage due to come through early Thursday & warm us back up well into the 50s to near 60 with some sun!

Another cold front will attempt to dive in late Thursday night into Friday morning with some rain & colder air to end the week, & then the weekend will try to warm up more significant, especially come Sunday with a little rain possible Sunday.  More cold air MAY follow next week following the balmy weekend.  Stay tuned.

Have a great one everyone!!    

71 comments:

  1. 70 degrees on Sunday! Spring is finally here and that is terrific.

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  2. Did anyone see the GFS for next week? Am I wrong saying it looks interesting like an interior snow storm?

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  3. I heard KW last night say the models were seeing snow for the middle of next week.

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  4. Joe Bastardi (Weatherbell) says winter is not done with us yet. Look out next week as a very cold shot of air moves in. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

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  5. Stop it folks all done spring here 70 Sunday and Monday. Please give up winter people. JB is the worst btw.

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    Replies
    1. Hate to tell you, but if you look at the long range forecast for next week; it will turn colder -- enjoy the 70 degree (one day) weather; it will be back into the 40-50's and even 30's as we move into the middle of next week.

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    2. do you know how accurate LONG RANGE FORECASTS are? stop misinforming the readers with your winter propaganda!

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    3. Really -- you might want to check out what KW on 10 is saying. Therefore are you accusing him of misinforming/misleading folks?

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    4. What is he saying?

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  6. We are going on an overnight trip Sunday into Monday. And enjoying the nice weather!

    So if it snows later , I will still have pleasant memories to keep me warm.

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  7. We are all waiting to see what the great CCCC thinks about this threat next Tuesday?

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    Replies
    1. who cares.. winter is over stop wishing and praying

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  8. Kevin Williams has Tweeted that the European model is saying 70's Monday and only in the 20's on Tuesday.

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  9. It is clear that winter is not done yet. Folks keep talking about Spring and warm weather. Remember that it did snow on Saturday morning, though it melted; but was still cold. So expect a nice, warm day here and there - Sunday enjoy the 70 degree. As we move into the next week the temps will continue to drop, and would not be surprised to see snow. Hey we are close to the 115" mark for snow this year anways. Perhaps we will meet or even break it. Winter lovers rejoice.

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  10. 12z GFS anyone a lot of moisture simply stated.

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  11. A lot of rain that is what we would get please remember it is April 15th next Tuesday. Do your taxes and enjoy the rain.

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  12. Guys nothing here next week maybe some rain but temperatures are high next week. We are in spring so please winter people let it go. We had a great winter give us our 6 months of sun and fun stop talking like we will get more substantial snow.

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    1. Don't think so. KW on WHEC TV 10 states that Monday temps to be 70+, but overnight will begin to fall with temps reaching 28 on Tuesday; possibly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Might want to check out their website as it states it clearly on it. Winter is not done yet. So for those of us who love winter, we are holding out for every last bit of snow we can get. Besides, we want to break the 115" mark for snow this year. We are so close.

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  13. 70s Monday to upper 20s Tuesday really not buying it! Not even Rochester is that nuts.

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  14. I can't possibly overstate how at odds the models are with each other on any potential storm early next week. It seems however that whatever front decides to push through will have a sharp temperature gradient, so a drop from 70s to near freezing isn't totally out of the question. I'd be more concerned about severe weather across the lower Midwest and Mid Atlantic than I would be about snow anywhere simply given the time of year, but it wouldn't be too crazy to say that some snow is indeed possible even here. This is all just from a lazy glance at some models though as I'm not really fully invested in weather at the moment. I will say though that even as a winter lover I'd rather not have to contend with snow in mid April, unless we're talking about something extreme (not devastating) like 2 feet of fluff.

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  15. CCCC models showing this will be rain for all on EC and have to see if any severe T-storms. There has never been extreme fluff (2 feet) this late in April so lets move on.

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  16. I guess "models" doesn't include the 12z GGEM then:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_000-240_0000.gif

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  17. CCCC you know that model has been useless. Both EURO and GFS latest runs show NBD for next week please do not mislead winter is over.

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  18. Useless? Hardly, it did a decent job with the Thanksgiving storm as well as the rain/ice storm back in December. It was also one of the first models to pick up on the March blizzard. You want useless, try the NAM. In any event a system with as much QPF as these models are showing isn't "no big deal" when we still have very saturated soil and some more rain to get through on Thursday. And I'm not misleading people by pointing out one model that depicts snow, anyone who visits here regularly should know by now that individual model runs at this range rarely come to represent reality. It's been said here ad nauseum.

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    1. Stop misinforming readers , any hooligan can read a model on a website. Unless you have a degree in meteorology/ sufficient experience in the field, don't make unrealistic calls in the forecast models mean very little.

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    2. So now we have to be degreed professionals to speculate on here? Informed amateurs are no longer allowed to speak their minds? Yeah, not happening champ. Anyway I haven't made a specific call of any sort, just pointed out what a single model says as a rebuttal to the person who said all of the models show strictly rain.

      "Stop misinforming readers"

      I say it's their own misdoing if they prefer to get their forecasts from random blogger speculation instead of finely crafted professional forecasts. Some of us here are knowledgeable but that's no reason to treat anything said here as the final call unless someone from News 8 says it.

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  19. But what did the 12z EURO and GFRS show today? We do not get updates on those models so I assume rain, rain, and rain.

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  20. Milwaukee will see a 6-12 inches Monday, and higher totals on the euro model, Winter is not over folks. Interesting to see what will enter WNY on Tuesday next week.

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    1. I love how you can make a call on exact snowfall amounts so early. Milwaukee stands a better chance of seeing snow than we do, but saying they'll get 6-12 inches at this range is being far too specific.

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  21. Both the NWS grid forecasts and KW are hinting at a little snow here on the backside of the system.

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    1. Thanks for also posting what has been hinted at for the past couple of days. Really annoyed with bloggers who say "stop misinforming", etc. Even when you say another weather person has begun to hint at it.

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  22. Models over night showing NBD for next week as I have been saying spring has sprung and lets get to 70.

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    1. Predictions and model interpretations from anonymous posters like yourself are worthless.

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  23. But accurate Anon 8:14. What do you have?

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    Replies
    1. Well there's this:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/SN_120-240_0000.gif

      "Oh but CCCC, according to my Council of Cognitive Biases the GGEM has been worthless for months." And I preemptively respond with "that isn't the point." Because I'm totally not being snippy or anything...

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  24. I just noticed that the NWS grid forecast for my humble abode has mid 70s for both Sunday and Monday, before a drop to the low 30s for Monday night and mid 40s for Tuesday with mixed precip. What a splendid way to toy with our emotions...

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    1. Which is the same that the local weather folks have been stating the past couple of days; but when one of us posts something similar -- there are certain blogger who jump all over it with angry postings.

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    2. Except there's a difference between "here's what this forecast says" vs "It's gonna be 70s for sure with no chance of any changes to the forecast and it for sure won't snow at all because no model shows any snow," followed up by someone (read: me) posting a few model runs that do indeed depict snow, to which the response is invariably "yeah well that model is useless anyway," which completely blows past the point being made which is that some piece of guidance depicts snow. Related note: people need to recognize the difference between "here's a contradictory piece of evidence that precludes 100% confidence in your stance" and "you're wrong." Someone claims a given scenario is set in stone, someone else gives reasons why it isn't, that doesn't necessarily mean that they think the first person is wrong. Just that they're overstating their case.

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  25. Happy 100th day of 2014!

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  26. Models quiet next Tuesday looks like the large precipitation field is no longer or moved far north?

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    Replies
    1. The GFS still has about an inch of (mostly) rain here Monday night through Tuesday. The GGEM has over an inch. Quiet as an angry hyena in a hall closet.

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  27. NWS discussion:

    "THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

    ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY."

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    1. Be prepared for some bloggers on this page to say stop providiging "misinformation" and winter is done. However, we know that it still have the chance to linger around a bit longer. Thanks for the continued updates and opinions. Much appreciated.

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  28. Okay we have seen rain before? A few wet snow flurries is not winter hanging around. It will be 35 to 40 degrees ok NBD.

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    1. Thank you , some one with clear reasoning , tired of winter lovers begging for attention posting fabrications.

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    2. So I guess posting a blurb from a NWS discussion doesn't count as "clear reasoning" huh...

      Oh hey guess what:

      "AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ANABATIC IN NATURE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES TOGETHER BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND ONE OR MORE SUBTLE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS EAST. THE PRECISE TIMING OF VARIOUS FRONTAL WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL DECIDE WHETHER THERE WILL JUST BE WET FLAKES IN THE AIR...OR WHETHER SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT."

      And from the WPC:

      "ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD SEASON."

      Analysis from two expert professional organizations is about as close to "clear reasoning" as one can get. And hey look at that, we still might have an accumulating snowfall to deal with, MAYBE, depending on how the front behaves. So pardon my french but people need to STFU about this being a done deal.

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    3. Could not agree with you more.

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    4. Still not buying any accumulating snow. Sorry CCCC it is donedeal.com.

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    5. You don't have to "buy it" to consider it to be a possibility. Make sure to learn from those who kept calling something a done deal only to be wrong in the end, like nearly everyone before the Thanksgiving storm. Remember how so many people thought it would go out to sea for sure only to have it slide up the coast and deliver heavy snow, and that was with more model agreement than what we have now. And consider that many professionals are currently leaning towards waiting longer before biting on any given scenario, which should be enough on its own to discourage any degree of conviction. Simply put, "not buying it" is a very poor justification for being certain of any given scenario.

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    6. Really CCCC you are putting the words out there like" heavy snow" and "leaning towards" well the "heavy snow" you mention was in late November not late April? Plus I see no local Met "leaning towards" waiting longer before biting on anything. They say possible change over to wet snow FLURRIES not a peep about HEAVY wet snow as a possibility. Stop it please and move on to spring get out of your college dorm and have a cookout please. The heavy studying may be getting to you?

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    7. Can you also remember the late March winter storm we had. it was only to be 3-5 inches of snow, and it turned out to 6 to 9+ inches of wet heavy snow. I remember posting about this and what others were seeing and hearing. The response from one blogger was that "I was crazy, and would be shoveling my own crap in the morning not snow". Nice huh.

      If the rain changes over to snow, there is that possibiliy that the snow will be wet and heavy, and several inches -- one never knows especially with the winter we have had this year. CCCC is someone who likes to share his opinions, along with HP, Weatherguy, and others. I for one appreciate the posting by this bloggers as it gives a different point of view and opinion. Again, they do not claim to be "experts" in the field, but people who love looking at weather maps and charts, and like to share their passion with others.

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    8. Find where I put "heavy snow" out there for this storm. Hint: I never did. Not once. "It's April" is also a poor justification, and anyway my point was that people have been this convictive in the past only to have their confidence strewn right back into their faces when they turned out to be wrong.

      And do tell me how this:

      "GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT."

      ...and this:

      "ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST."

      ...aren't leaning towards uncertainty? Granted they're from yesterday, but they hardly represent a high degree of confidence.

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  29. All I know is that I am starting to doubt if News 8 is the most accurate around. They have a high temp for Monday of 52, while everyone else is talking close to 80. I like to see how this plays out!

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    1. http://www.rochesterhomepage.net/forecast

      High of 76 on Monday is what it says.

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    2. They flip flop more than any other station , Rochester's most innaccurate forecast 5 years in the running now!

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  30. What a surprise EURO and all models do not show any snow for Tuesday/Wednesday? Hello it is mid April and think I said NBD and people get angry. Sorry CCCC stop posting false potential when we all know spring is here and it may be 80 Monday.

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    1. NWS discussion:

      "MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY."

      Read that again:

      "A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION..."

      Yes we all know spring is here and it's April and yadda yadda. On April 17th 2007 some regions in the Northeast had to shovel over a foot of "spring" out of their driveways. Obviously this won't be remotely close to the same situation, but I hope you see my point.

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  31. And for the record, anyone who says I'm trying to wishcast my way into getting snow is flat out wrong. I'd gladly take Sunday's forecast every day until late October, but the reality is that some accumulating snow is indeed POSSIBLE for Tuesday.

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  32. You know what the most recent model runs are showing? Yes you got it NOTHING! Love warm air and spring.

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    1. Nice try buckaroo:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_000-120_0000.gif
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140412&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ROC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.3948150823389&mLON=-78.79436171875&mTYP=roadmap

      I'm going to hazard a guess that you didn't actually look at any model runs, and are simply trying to antagonize.

      WPC probability for 4+ inches of snow for Day 3 (Tuesday):

      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

      They also place our region under a 60% probability for at least an inch of snow accumulation. Keep in mind that these probabilities tend to increase for the main target regions the closer an event gets. The 50th percentile of their Accumulation by Percentile also indicates a few inches of snow accumulation, even at lower elevations. The 50th percentile would represent the most likely outcome according to their current thinking.

      NWS discussion:

      "A COATING TO ISOLATED AREAS WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO THE 30S ON TUESDAY."

      Somewhat more optimistic but the general theme is the same: there is STILL the risk for a minor accumulating snowfall on Tuesday, despite certain chuckleheads repeatedly claiming that it's gone. When it comes to things like this facts supersede personal desires every single time. And lord knows every single one of us would love it if the facts were different.

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  33. lol your still trying to cling on to hope eh? give it up it's OVER. I love people like you that continue to post on here like your some meteorologist that knows something , informative and fabricates the truth!

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    1. If there's any "hope" I'm clinging to it's that the front somehow stays west and we remain warm for the next 6 months. Your ire in that respect is painfully misguided.

      Ad nauseum, NWS discussion:
      "A COATING OF SNOW IS LIKELY WESTERN SECTIONS...TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY."

      WPC Accumulation by Percentile (50th percentile, the most likely outcome according to them):
      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2014041312f060.gif

      One thing I will give you is that the GFS is showing a bit less snowfall than in previous runs, but from what I can tell so far it's not representative of a trend (yet). Other guidance shows no such shift.

      "I love people like you that continue to post on here like your some meteorologist that knows something..."

      And I love people like you that seem to revel in provoking and taunting, contributing nothing useful while hiding behind the shroud of anonymity. Fits the prototype for a troll quite nicely actually. I'm not a meteorologist, but I'll tell you why I post like I know something: because I do know something. More than something, quite a bit actually, as do some others here (and obviously the News 8 people who trump us all in a big way). And it's not even like I've given any personal outlook on this particular event, it's mostly been some models and outlooks from professionals. I've merely been a messenger. So your ire is not only misguided, it's also aimed at the wrong target.

      "...fabricates the truth!"

      I have an extra credit assignment for you: explain in 200 words or less how posting model outputs and expert analyses could constitute "fabricating the truth." Due on Monday by the end of 5th period, worth 5 bonus points on your next test and a revocation of the two weeks of detention you earned for flashing Stephanie in the hallway on Friday. Good luck :)

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  34. Could there be freezing rain Tuesday night?

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  35. Ha ha News 8 tweet our chief meteorologist Scott Hetsko has HUGE changes in his Tuesday forecast please tune into tonight's news 8 news. Anything for ratings what are we getting 10 wet flakes instead of 5? All we need to do is tune into the great CCCC for what we need.

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    1. >getting you weather info from bloggers instead of trained professionals

      top lolz m8

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    2. I believe that Scott was referring to is the hugh drop in temperature from almost 80 to 30-40 degrees on Tuesday. Don't know about you, Anon 3:56 that is a HUGE change in Tuesday's forecast. I don't think Scott was doing this for rating purposes either.

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  36. That is how it is written HUGE and yet Scott on his twitter an hour ago said snow very little Tuesday. That was an hour ago while 20 mins ago News 8 tweets HUGE changes?

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    1. "Huge changes" as in high temps in the low 40s as opposed to low 80s. And "a small slushy accumulation" of snow, which (alluding to the above anonymous poster) would require a lot more than 10 flakes to accomplish.

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  37. T-shirts and shorts Monday afternoon to winter coats and hats Tuesday night. I'm not even mad, that's pretty incredible.

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