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Saturday, November 15

Accumulating snow for many next week

The weather pattern will be turning very active across western New York next week with many areas seeing their first accumulating snow of the season. Along with the snow, frigid air will arrive and stick around for several days.

The first storm system will develop over the southeast tomorrow and then race northeast and center itself near Long Island on Monday. This will not be a particularly strong area of low pressure but it will have plenty of moisture and cold air at the surface to work with. As a result, widespread light snow will overspread much of the region early Monday morning and then continue through Monday evening.



It's still a bit too early to give exact snowfall amounts but in general, 2-4" looks like a good possibility for much of our area by the time this system moves out of the region Monday night.

Behind this initial area of low pressure, a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday bringing us the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs by the middle part of next week will struggle to climb above the mid 20s. Gusty winds will drop wind chill values into the single digits and teens.


During this time, all the ingredients will be coming together for a significant lake effect snow event. A favorable west or southwest wind direction will combine with the frigid temperatures and plenty of atmospheric moisture to produce some very impressive lake effect bands. Right now, it looks like areas east and northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario will see the heaviest snow with those favored snow belts measuring the snow in feet!



For Rochester, we'll escape much of this heavy snow with just scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and cold temperatures expected for the city.

Stay with the News 8 Weather team for more updates in the coming days.

Written By: Matt Jones

18 comments:

  1. Very, very rare that I see lake effect snow from either lake. This might be one of those setups that some of it reaches here.

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  2. Rochester will miss out, but we are not in the snow belt so we cannot expect to see that kind of snow here. I would be surprised if we see 2-4 inches from this weak storm. It will be too warm to accumulate. I would say 1" at best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "This will not be a particularly strong area of low pressure but it will have plenty of moisture and cold air at the surface to work with."

      This expert analysis is what I choose to side with for now.

      Delete
  3. Remember what I said earlier about the strong winds possibly carrying the Lake Erie snowbands into the Rochester Metro? From the NWS discussion:

    "STRONG WINDS...DEEP INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THIS BAND OF SNOW TO TRAVEL WELL INLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCLUDED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALLEGANY...LIVINGSTON...AND MONROE COUNTIES WITH LOCAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES."

    They also mentioned some mixing with the synoptic system tomorrow. I'm not sure I buy anything more than a few hours of mixing outside of the Finger Lakes and the immediate lakeshore, seems like recent model runs want to trend a tad colder (and I do mean a TAD).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Check this out:
    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml

    http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/19dvc4zmyf4r2gif/original.gif

    ReplyDelete
  5. How stupid. Winter weather advisories out or lake effect advisories out for all of NY except Wayne and Ontario counties

    ReplyDelete
  6. Not much for Rochester

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  7. Buffalo will get pounded. They will be way ahead of us to start the year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winning the snow derby is the most important part of winter...

      Delete
  8. CCCC is the most recent GFS coming out now?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Will you update us please on what GFS says?

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  10. I see 6-8 by Wednesday morning if we get more LES in the metro then almost a foot.

    ReplyDelete

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