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Tuesday, April 7

Wet, Not White



Written by: Stacey Pensgen

It seems we have finally turned the page! We've gone from looking at every single run of every single model in search of "the big snowstorm" to looking for the warmth. In typical Spring fashion, we do have some warmer weather in the forecast, but nothing prolonged. Mid-week is kind of gross, with a chilly rain on Wednesday, followed by a less chilly rain on Thursday, and a milder rain on Friday. Temps should hit the mid and upper 60s on Friday  ahead of a system that will drag down another shot of cooler air for the weekend. But, instead of these cooler shots of air being in the teens and 20s, we're now only falling into the 40s! Woohoo!

This really appears like it'll be the trend over the next few weeks, possibly month - nothing prolonged in the "warm weather" department, but rather warm-ups ahead of a storm system, followed by troughiness. So, enjoy these bouts of milder air when they come along, which they will, tempered by cooler air to follow, like Friday and Monday!

99 comments:

  1. I hate rain. So gloomy and depressing and dismal. Lookd like another freezing cold Red Wings home opener. Sucks!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have a close friend who loves early spring and cold rain. I strongly suspect that he is a reptilian disguised as a human being.

    At least the forecast for the Red Wings home opener calls for mostly sunny skies, which will make the mid/upper 40s feel much more comfortable.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Isn't the owner supposed to do something or give away something if it isn't 50 degrees on the opener?

    Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it does not reach 50F at some point in the home opener, ticket stub is good for any other home game in April or May.

      Delete
    2. Ahh yes, that's right.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
  4. I feel the word gross is underutilized, when describing our weather.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Replies
    1. Especially if you're on the wrong side of the front.

      Delete
    2. Know what else is gross? Having to miss several hours of admittedly enjoyable work to have the cable company come in and fix your internet connection.

      Delete
  6. 8 comments in 3 days???
    Zzzzzzzzzzzz......................BORINGGGGG
    Time to shut the blog down since Winter has long been over
    Sorry folks, you'll have to wait till next winter!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exciting weather doesn't end when winter does...

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=high%20wind%20warning

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

      "...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...AS STRONG /50-60 KT/ WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB...AND THESE WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH THE TIME OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY MIX SOME OF THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALLOWS FOR MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN THE USUAL AREAS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES...WHERE FUNNELING EFFECTS WILL PROVIDE AN ADDED BOOST TO BOTH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS. TAKING BOTH THIS AND THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS /WHICH MAY AID IN TOPPLING SOME TREES/ INTO CONSIDERATION...WE HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY...AND FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA."

      Delete
    2. CCCC - thank you for saying that. I've never understood why so many people here seem to think "weather" = "winter". True, we sometimes get lucky and get stretches of warm, sunny conditions in the summer (oh, the horror, how boring!), but aren't spring/summer t-storms interesting? Or the fall conditions that result in waterspouts over the lakes? Winter is not the only interesting weather time!

      Delete
    3. Around here, end of Spring through middle of Fall is relatively boring. We get rain and then a thunderstorm every once in a great while. (Thankfully) we aren't impacted by tornadoes or hurricanes. I grew up in Florida where very strong thunderstorms made the weather worth watching. I have to say, once Winter is over I get bored of the weather up here.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
  7. Chris now in PenfieldApril 9, 2015 at 12:17 PM

    16/4C = We see a stationary front like this stalled over / near us a few times per year. How does a front like this become stuck? Is it simply a matter of being trapped between pressure systems on the perimeter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Never really looked into it, but I think it has to do with stationary surface features in stagnant patterns. The pattern is de-stagnifying (is that even a word? Spellcheck doesn't think so...) thanks to that strong storm system in the Midwest, which recently sent the boundary back north as a warm front.

      Delete
  8. Computer models seem to indicate next week will be a nice spring week with temps in the 60's and 70's BUT those same models show MUCH colder weather for the following week.
    Should that be taken with a grain of salt or are we headed back to below nornmal temps the week of the 20th?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The GFS and GGEM ensemble means do both cool us back below average after next week, the former more so than the latter.

      Delete
    2. Not True...it is Spring...TOO WARM!! ALL RAIN!!
      Sorry folks!!

      Delete
  9. Where is the wind? Pretty calm on the east side all morning.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Wait about 3 or 4 hours, that's when the strongest gusts will arrive.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yes it's now gotten windy on the east side since my earlier post. What surprised me was Kroc was reporting gusty winds since much earlier in the day while things remained calm on the east side for hours.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Dunno if anyone has looked 7-10 days out, but models are showing a "moderate" snowfall potential, more closer to 10 days out. Its far away but it definitely looks interesting. Looks like 4-8" could be in play so don't put the snow-shovels away just yet!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I honestly won't mind one more snowfall, its been a while! Hope you are right! It will be a quick melter anyways. Looks like Mr. NBD is wrong! Winter is NOT over

      Delete
    2. Fan-freaking-tastic. More snow.

      Delete
  13. Anon 1:59 please just stop it. Winter is done and the snow is gone. We can all wait until next winter to track the next snow storm.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Oh dear lord, a winter storm?! This is ridiculous I thought Winter was long gone. Ughhh not happy about this. Hope this somehow misses our area!!

    ReplyDelete
  15. As I have been saying, Spring will be late in arriving. A warm day here and day, with temps in the 50-60's; does not constitute Spring. We just need to hang in there a little bit longer and before we know it -- it will be Spring and then Summer. Not sure if the above blogger is correct; but could we have a Winter Storm with 4-8 inches of snow towards the end of April. If so, that will be a bumper, and raise concerns for farmers. Just saying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're like the Snowdog of warm weather...nothing but the best will do. So what would you call the past 14 largely snowless days? Because that's definitely not winter, so it must be...spring. This month, the decidedly springly month of April, is running nearly a degree above average to date. Make of that what you will.

      Delete
    2. I WAS NOT the one who posted the entry about possible snow for the week of 4/10. You might have to read Anon 4/10 post. I was simply questioning what they had posted and if it is correct -- it would be a bummer.

      Delete
    3. I never said you were the same person...

      Delete
  16. The only sign of any snow event that I could find in the 7-10 day range is the extremely outlier-ish 12z Euro, and even then I'm not entirely sure its depiction would yield anything consequential. No one should be thinking flakes at this point, or probably any point until November.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tell that to Anon 4/10 1:59 who first posted it.

      Delete
  17. Chris now in PenfieldApril 11, 2015 at 9:24 AM

    I am going to reassert my prediction of warm, mild winter either in 2015-16 or 16-17. This has got to balance out sometime (dry, hot West vs. cold, moist East three winters in a row).

    ReplyDelete
  18. Ah Spring at last!

    ReplyDelete
  19. This week is going to be very non April-ish, as in there will be more sun than clouds and temps will be pleasantly cool.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Pleasantly cool, as in above average? The forecast I'm looking at has us average to above thru a week from Tuesday.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  21. 12z Euro continues to tick towards some type of accumulating snow for next Tues/Wed-ish time frame. Some models indicate a 4-8" possibility but that seems bullish, others suggest a more modest 2-5" which seems more likely. Still far out but maybe this is one Final Winter Storm coming together??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry Anon 6:42 but 2-5" is absolutely NBD. Talk to me when WSW's are issued, then you'll have my attention.

      Delete
    2. two to five inches at the end of April IS a big deal.

      Delete
    3. Now you are just REALLY wishing for snow. Give up the rooting for snow. All these posts do are freak out the couple people that don't realize the stuff you are seeing is an extreme chance. Also remember, all winter we were seeing this stuff 10 days out and it only happened once or twice. This will not be one of those time.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
    4. Sorry for the bad grammar. I didn't re-read it until I posted.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
  22. Not sure how it's going to snow when multiple forecast services are showing 50's for next week?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Today is turning out to be nearly summerlike, with possible thunderstorms in the forecast...and there are still people talking about snow. Really? REALLY!?

    http://www.f150ecoboost.net/forum/attachments/11434d1397571921-incoming-new-product-jms-boost-max-cmon_man.jpg

    I am 100 percent in agreement with Ms. Mule, the odds of any appreciable snow in the foreseeable future are incredibly slim. Even that 12z Euro run doesn't produce much if any frozen precip here, and the 00z run is even further from such an idea. There might be a storm system passing through early next week, but don't expect any snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm thinking worst case scenario we see a little bit of sleet but no snow.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
    2. 84 degrees. NBD

      Real Spring is 120.

      Delete
  24. Can't believe how nice yesterday and though a little bit cooler today it is still nice. Feels like we have FINALLY turned the corner into Spring. Yea!!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Latest Euro run now shows a possible Ice Storm next week??? Am I reading this right? Can't believe we finally have a storm set up for next week and no one is talking about it! Are you people all asleep?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are not asleep, we are enjoying SPRING!
      But yes, I do see what you are seeing..
      Not sure what kind of impact this may bring, but the potential is definitely there.
      We are well into April so the last thing we need is a winter storm! Hoping this one fizzles~!

      Delete
    2. I agree that this one bears watching for sure. 80 degrees Monday and now we could be seeing Winter Storm Watches go up early next week. Craziness!

      Delete
    3. Let's see if today's GFS gets on board with this storm. I'm in spring mode but heck, I wouldn't mind one more good storm :-P

      Delete
    4. Stop getting people frightened!!! We are NOT getting a storm next week!!
      Any precip will absolutely be NBD!! TOO WARM!! ALL RAIN!!
      Sorry folks, but NBD on this one!

      Delete
  26. OMG just great, and I have to travel all next week. How much snow/ice are we supposed to get?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Idk but you may wanna cancel those travel plans!
      Also- Someone may wanna warn Wegmans to load up on the bread and milk asap!!!!!!

      Delete
    2. Stop it! Not one of the local weather folks, even those on Channel 10 have talked about anything for next week. Usually by now you will have heard JN or KW stating "next week bears watching..." Has anyone heard them say that? So stop being a real jerk and get off the board.

      Delete
    3. They're not talking about it yet bc its 7 days out still and there's plenty of uncertainty! We may see Winter Storm Watches go up on Sunday, then the locals will pick up on it once there's a higher degree of confidence. CCCC even said it could go either way and it bears watching. And he's the next best thing to the local mets.

      Delete
    4. I gave it an impossibly small chance of happening.

      Delete
    5. Hey Anon 2:59; point me to the post in which CCCC said it "bears watching", huh.

      Delete
    6. "I gave it an impossibly small chance of happening"

      ....Soo you're tellin me there's a chance! :-)

      Delete
  27. Early next week is going to bring temps in the 50s with possible rain showers. No ice, no snow, just plain old liquid rain. Winter Storm Watches are not going to happen, nor will any sort of winter weather headline. Nothing frozen is going to fall out of the sky. There is a zero percent chance of any wintry precip. The precip we get will be in the form of liquid, none of it will be frozen, none of it will freeze upon contact with the ground. It will be too warm for snow, sleet or freezing rain. There will not be a winter weather event.

    Have I laid things out clearly enough? Any lingering doubts or inquiries? Go post your made-up winter storm nonsense somewhere else. Have a nice spring.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's funny bc the forecast from weather underground says....and I quote..
      "Rain showers early changing to mixed rain, sleet, and snow later at night. Low near 33F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 50%"
      Dust my ears this evening, but that sounds like FROZEN precip to me!!!!

      On a side note, its looking more like WW Advisories are the more likely scenario.
      Still nothing to joke about!
      Get the shovels back out!
      If you took your snow tires off, expletives you may shout!
      This system is going to hit, and leave no doubt!!

      Delete
    2. CCCC, you kinda sound like the NBD guy with this post. I agree with you though.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
    3. The NBD guy was a wishcasting troll.

      Also weather underground has rain with lows in the 40s on Monday night.

      Delete
  28. Thank you, and Anon 2:59 does need to go somewhere else.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Can someone knowledgeable tell me what day/night we are supposed to get the snow storm next week?? I am flying out next week and am looking to change my flight plans if needed. Is this going to affect my travel? (by air)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We aren't getting a snow storm. We might get a storm Monday into Monday night but that won't be snow. The only think you have to worry about is if you are flying south during a storm system moving through.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
  30. Stop feeding the Trolls!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FEED...ME....MORE!!
      FEED...ME....MORE!!!!!
      FEED...ME....MORE!!!!!!!!!!

      Delete
    2. THIS MAN IS A POWERHOUSE
      HE'S A TWO-STORY HOUSE WITH A BASEMENT

      Delete
  31. Poor JN got tirejacked today :<

    Kind of funny in a morbid sense actually, he's lived right smack in the middle of Rochester for however long without that happening. Then it finally happens to him in eastern MA of all places. Hope he gets those puppies replaced without a hitch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is eastern MA?

      Delete
    2. Ah, thanks. How many tires he lose?

      Delete
    3. CCCC What a piece of garbage you are, mocking someone in an unfortunate situation like this. That is really disappointing of you, but quite frankly I am not surprised. I hope karma bites you big time. JN is family to me. You really need to grow up..

      Delete
    4. "Hope he gets those puppies replaced without a hitch."

      Guess you missed that part huh Salty McButthurt? Also the :< I put in there is an emoticon meant to convey sadness. But hey, who wants to actually read what someone posted when you can be irrationally angry at them instead? As for the other anon, here's the tweet showing his car:

      https://twitter.com/wnywxguy/status/588912101214834689

      Looks like he lost all four tires. Apparently two other vehicles were struck in the same area. I sincerely hope he gets this issue resolved quickly, and I sincerely hope that ol' Salty hasn't killed anyone over what he thinks an internet person said.

      Delete
  32. Latest GFS shows snow in the forecast for next Saturday. I knew we weren't done with winter yet!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think we see winter storm watches?

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule.

      Delete
  33. A bit of wet flakiness could occur during the nighttime hours after the middle of next week. But there's still nothing noteworthy on the table.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THOUGHT'CHU SAID NOTHING FROZEN WOULD BE FALLING FROM THE SKY???

      Delete
    2. I was referring to Monday when I said that. And anyway it's a very far cry from the people talking about winter storm watches.

      Delete
  34. I feel like the trolling here has gotten dumber and nastier with each passing month...

    ReplyDelete
  35. Anime was a mistake.

    Also I'm sad to see that our stretch of beautiful weather is ending soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well at least we ran above average the last week and now we're going to face the other side of the curve for a several days. I guess that's how averages work. Any insight on the next warm up timing?

      Andy

      Delete
    2. The ensemble means keep us mired in largely below average temps until early May. Teleconnection forecasts agree.

      Delete
    3. Ugh! Okay thanks. Hopefully not too far below avg :)
      Andy

      Delete
  36. SNOW is officially in the forecast! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
    GET SOME!!!!!!
    AHHHHHHH!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, a 30 to 40 percent chance of wet snow showers for a few nights. Super exciting.

      Delete
  37. So how about that Winter Storm we just got that people were freaking out about last week eh? Sure was a humdinger for late April, had to clear about 4-8 inches of nothing off of my car this morning. We should adopt the Weather Channel's naming convention for this truly historic event...Winter Storm Nothing will be remembered for generations to come.

    Now back to reality...one more nice day before unsettled and chilly conditions take over through much of the week. The weekend looks much nicer but also chilly. Still looking at mainly below average temps for the rest of the month, before moving back closer to average at the start of May.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You sound like the NBD guy, but he does it WAYYY better

      Delete
    2. I agree, NBD is better at sounding like himself than I am at sounding like him. Good thing I wasn't trying to sound like him then.

      Delete
  38. That beautiful squall got stuffed right at 390. Bummer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Um, there were no such snow squalls last night you MORON!!!
      Sorry folks, but last night's event was NBD at all!
      TOO WARM!!! ALL RAIN!!!

      Delete
    2. Hey Anonymous MORON, do you know what a squall is:

      "a sudden violent gust of wind or a localized storm, especially one bringing rain, snow, or sleet" The squall gave us rain, no one said snow.

      Fletch

      Delete
  39. I think i speak for most people when i say you can stick friday's cold front up, your ass!Satuday is the first day of summer and i'm sick and tired about hearing of another cold front dropping temps into the 50's for late June.We've dealt with a bitter winter again,a shit spring and now looks like a chilly wet summer as well.Screw this,i'm going to disneyland.

    ReplyDelete

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