Written By: Scott Hetsko
The area of low pressure set to reach us in 60 hours is currently just entering the Pacific Northwest this evening. The system will move quickly across the middle of the country and get some extra punch thanks to an upper air low diving out of Canada on Tuesday. Snow will break out early on Wednesday and should fall into early Thursday morning. All data indicated a favorable track for Western New York. Also the cyclone is forecast to deepen Wednesday evening although how deep remains a question. Following the storm, a shot of very cold air and wind return on Thursday with highs only in the teens.
At this time, I think 6" or more of snow is likely for much of the area with slightly lower amounts toward the Niagara Frontier. The "ifs" are always the killer in forecasting snow storms. Here are a few:
IF: The storm deepens and slows down, lake enhancement and blowing snow become an issue Wednesday night.
IF: The storm continues to move along quickly and weaker, snow will shut off quickly.
IF: The storm tracks 100 miles further South than expected....everyone thinks we suck at weather forecasting.
These are a few reasons why I don't spend much time changing my views from model run to model run. Whatever we see in the data tomorrow afternoon will be the likely indicator of how the storm will play out. Good night and good luck!