Finally Warm! (And the Summer Weather Outlook)

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

So, our winter wasn't bad. At all. If you don't like winter. As one viewer said, winter never really came around, but it also didn't know when to leave. Well, that is finally changing. It is looking like we will finally get some true summer-like weather as we head into the "unofficial" start of summer.

The Memorial Day weekend will see temperatures rising back into the lower and mid 80s, with more humidity, as well. To go along with that, we will see some scattered showers and storms. But, that's ok. We could use a little rain, and we can definitely use some warmth! Enjoy!

PS - in case you missed it, here is the News 8 summer weather outlook. Check it out! http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/rochesters-summer-forecast

More Winter...April Fools!...Not

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Much like most of the winter, March was wimpy on the snowfall front. We only recorded 3.2", about a foot shy of the average. The seasonal snow has been just 54", which is 39.7" shy of the seasonal average. Rochester is just outside of the top 10 for least snow in March, and seasonal snow, so we won't be breaking any records on that front.

That being said, winter looks to make a return this weekend. Models have been consistent in bringing in an arctic blast Saturday  night and Sunday, with some minor accumulating snow possible Saturday night. It'll likely only be a few inches, but will likely fall overnight, so the strong Spring sun won't have an effect on that. More impressive, is the cold to follow on Sunday, and could have another weaker blast of cold air Monday/Tuesday.

It also looks like we will have plenty of ups and downs in the temperature department through at least early April, with warm-ups, followed by brief shots of cold air. So, spring will be spring around WNY!

Tricky Forecast Next Week

From highs in the 70s early in the month to the seasons first thunderstorm last week to cold air this weekend, we've seen some wild swings in the weather the past few weeks and it looks like this changeable pattern will continue into next week.

The large scale pattern will feature a southwest flow aloft from the Plains into the Northeast. This will send a series of disturbances and low pressure systems into the region with several rounds of precipitation through next week.

A stationary front will waver back and forth across the region from Tuesday through Thursday making for a very tough temperature forecast. South of the front, temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s but north of this boundary, highs will struggle to climb out of the 30s.

Check out the temperature forecast from the ECMWF model Thursday afternoon. Notice the tight temperature gradient from north to south across the region.

This also makes for a tricky precipitation type forecast. North of the front, a mix of rain and snow can be expected but south, rain showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms could occur.

Expect drastic changes in the forecast over the next few days depending on exactly where this front ends up.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Is Winter Over?

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Scott pulled some winter statistics together, showing the 2015-2016 Rochester winter season being the 2nd least snowiest since the 1950s. We've recorded just over 51" of snow this season. With the taste of Spring (and even summer) the last few days, many people are wondering if that's it for winter? I'm going with no. It's WNY, after all!

Yes, it's more than a week away, but the warm pattern looks to flip flop and turn cooler. GFS is showing a deep cut-off low developing by late next week, keeping us unsettled and a bit cool.

GFS and even to a certain extend the Euro wants to develop a late season winter storm somewhere in the Northeast. While it's wayyyyyyyy early to even put this in the forecast, I know many on this blog are just itching for one last hurrah. So, like we always say, we'll keep and eye on it and see how it develops...or doesn't develop. But remember - March (and even to a certain extent April) can produce some wild weather in these parts. Enjoy!

Here We Go Again

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

El Nino sure wants to keep us WNY mets busy! No, we don't have another "snowstorm," per say, but we do have our 3rd significant synoptic storm in as many weeks in the next 36-48 hours.

Our first storm dumped record snow on us. Last week's dumped record rain on us. This one looks to have both rain and snow, along with a wintry mix.

Of course, it all comes down to the precise track, but at this point, it looks like some warm front light snow will lift through western New York Tuesday midday/afternoon with little, if any accumulation. This is where things get interesting. Some sleet and freezing rain is likely to mix in with rain and snow overnight Tuesday, before changing over to all snow early Wednesday  morning. What this means for accumulations: Niagara Frontier (Route 104 west of Rochester) could see a decent snowfall. Rochester and the Genesee Valley could see some accumulating icy mix of sleet and freezing rain, with a few inches of snow on top of that. Finger Lakes could see more rain to begin with, then a little icy mix, followed by a little snow.

Bottom line, doesn't look like a major snow-maker for most of us, although areas closer to Buffalo could pick up a decent plowable snow. And Wednesday morning's commute is looking like another one where you'll want to leave yourself extra time and patience!