A soaking rain will be developing later this afternoon, that may begin as a snow/wintry mix briefly in spots, and continue at times through the night & into Friday morning. There could be a few embedded t-storms tonight & tomorrow morning too, as the warm front should sneak through late tonight/early Friday and set us up for a nice mild beginning to Friday. Temperatures should climb well up into the 40s to maybe 50, especially south Friday morning. A strong cold front will blow through later Friday morning/midday, & behind it we will feel the air cool back into the 30s by day's end. Winds will blow pretty good at times too, especially from around Monroe County points west in the lake plain to Lake Erie. Gusts could reach 45 to 50 mph late tonight into Friday at times, hence we are under a High Wind Watch Rochester area points west to Buffalo & Niagara Falls. The bigger story I believe, though, will be the flood potential tonight & Friday. A solid 1.5" to 2.5" of rain could fall from late today through early Friday afternoon, & if that happens with the mild temperatures causing significant snow melt & some ice jams on local streams could really cause a mess in spots, especially flood prone areas. Flood Watch is in effect for most in WNY tonight through Friday for the potential of flooding.
Again, in the wake of this storm it will cool off later Friday with some sun probably developing during the afternoon & gusty winds. The weather should be pretty tranquil Friday night into Saturday with a few rain & snow showers possibly developing Saturday, but no biggie. Highs Saturday should be in the low 40s with a brisk breeze. Then Sunday the cold air starts to migrate in with highs in the low 30s & a little snow possible thanks to a little trough & cold front. Behind the front, the air will turn much colder with a brisk wind & some lake snow possible Monday & maybe Tuesday. Big time Arctic air still looks like it's going to come down for the latter half of next week into next weekend, which will probably mean some lake snow for some anyways. Stay tuned.